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Demographic toll of Russia-Ukraine war threatens future, WSJ reports

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine may be partly motivated by demographic concerns. “He wants to use Ukraine and its people to consolidate the Slavic core of Russia,” the report says.

byMaria Tril

18/09/2024

2 minute read

Marsove Pole (Mars Field) in Lviv, graves of Ukrainian fallen soldiers Credit: Facebook Yurko Dyachyshyn

Demographic toll of Russia-Ukraine war threatens future, WSJ reports

The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine resulted in approximately one million casualties, with profound implications for both nations’ demographics, according to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ cites confidential Ukrainian estimates from earlier this year, which put Ukrainian military losses at 80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. Western intelligence estimates for Russian casualties vary, with some suggesting up to 200,000 dead and around 400,000 wounded.

However, Ukrainian official says the WSJ report on 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed was inflated. MP and Committee on National Security member Roman Kostenko say the plausible number is up to 50,000, while he didn’t name precise data due to some personnel missing.

According to the WSJ report, the war’s impact on Ukraine’s population has been particularly severe.

According to previously undisclosed Ukrainian government estimates, the population in Kyiv-controlled territory dropped to between 25 million and 27 million from 46 million before the Russian full-scale invasion. This decline is attributed to both the war and the exodus of refugees, with the UN reporting over six million people fleeing Ukraine since February 2022.

The WSJ reports that Russia’s strategy includes attempts to boost its own population by absorbing Ukrainians. “Demographics is a priority for Putin, and he wants to use Ukraine and its people to consolidate the Slavic core of Russia,” Krastev explains.

The war has also exacerbated pre-existing demographic challenges in both countries. Ukraine’s birthrate has plummeted, with government data showing three times as many deaths as births in the first half of this year. Russia, meanwhile, faces a labor shortage exacerbated by the exodus of young professionals and disrupted migration patterns from Central Asia.

The WSJ notes that both governments keep war casualties secret, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying in February that around 31,000 soldiers had been killed. The WSJ’s report suggests this figure may be underestimated.

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