The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 12 September that Russian forces had made advances in areas of Kursk Oblast where Ukrainian forces had not yet fully established control. However, the ISW predicts that Russian forces will encounter greater challenges when attempting to counterattack further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces have a stronger presence.
According to the ISW, “Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control.”
Ukraine started its operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early August, swiftly capturing significant territory. On 11 September, Russia launched counterattacks in this area, but the ISW cannot yet confirm the Russians’ claims that ten settlements have been recaptured.
The ISW notes that Russian forces have advanced approximately 58 square kilometers in areas where there have been either maximalist claims or visual evidence of Ukrainian operations since the start of counterattacks on 10-11 September.
However, the institute emphasizes that it “previously was not mapping control of terrain within the Ukrainian salient in Russia, and Russian forces have not advanced in recent days through areas which ISW formally assessed were under Ukrainian control.”
The report suggests that Ukrainian forces may have fewer consolidated positions in forward areas at the edges of the salient where recent Russian advances have occurred. “Ukrainian forces have not attempted to consolidate positions everywhere in their salient in Kursk Oblast,” the ISW states.
The ISW predicts that “Russian counterattacks against better prepared and consolidated positions in territory where Ukrainian forces exert control will likely be far less successful than the counterattacks Russian forces launched on 10 to 11 September.”
This assessment indicates that Russian forces may face significant challenges as they attempt to push further into areas where Ukrainian forces have established a stronger foothold.
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