05 September 2024. Today, the most important developments come from the Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Recently, Russians have made significant progress here, making large advancements to the west toward Pokrovsk and to the south toward Kurakhove.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians face significant obstacles to control and stabilize the situation. The main Russian goal here is to take control of the city of Pokrovsk and cut off the T0504 highway supplying Ukrainian forces at Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
To take Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which had a total pre-war population of about one hundred thousand people, Russians must first break through the Selydove-Novohrodivka-Hrodivka defensive line consisting of the three Ukrainian towns, respectively.
Russian movement
As you remember, Russians initially broke through Ukrainian lines at Prohres, leveraging their breakthrough to move deeper into Ukrainian territory along the railway line. After Russians took control over Zhelanne, they threatened the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the fields on the eastern bank of the Vovcha River, causing Ukrainians to withdraw from this area preemptively. Hereafter, Russians started launching assaults on two towns of the Ukrainian defense line, Hrodivka and Novohrodivka. Simultaneously, Russians started moving further south to Karlivka to fully secure their control over the Vovcha River and the Karlivka reservoirs.
After 6 to 12 days of heavy Russian assaults, Russians were able to take both Novohrodivka and Karlivka. With these victories, Russians secured complete control over the Karlivka reservoirs and broke through an important Ukrainian stronghold in the center of the defensive line. Russians were able to accomplish these relatively large successes because they had moved a vast number of reserves to the region.
Personnel number disparity
One month ago, Russians had concentrated approximately 40 to 50 thousand soldiers in this direction, compared to only 12 thousand Ukrainians. Importantly, current Russian numbers are likely much higher, as Russians have halted many other offensive efforts to strengthen their push toward Pokrovsk, redeploying a large number of reserves here.
A prominent Ukrainian military analyst even noted that Russians have now deployed more reserves to the Pokrovsk direction than they had during the highest intensity of fighting for Bakhmut. However, this has not come without a cost for Russian forces. Geolocated footage shows how Ukrainians defeated several waves of Russian mechanized assaults, destroying 12 armored vehicles and nearly 100 Russian soldiers in only one day, at not even the most intense part of the Pokrovsk front.
If you want to get access to the original uncensored combat footage, you can find it on Reporting From Ukraine’s Telegram channel. As both Russian and Ukrainian sources report that Russians are launching such attacks with up to 200 infantry with armored support at a time, it is clear that Russian losses have skyrocketed. The Institute for the Study of War and even Russian whistleblowers in contact with Ukrainian resistance groups report that Russian forces are suffering extraordinary losses in their increased effort to take Pokrovsk.
Karlivka defense
A prominent Ukrainian military correspondent noted the intensity of fighting from the eyes of the Ukrainian 11th motorized infantry battalion that had defended Karlivka. The fighters of the battalion stated that Russians launched full-frontal assaults on the settlement with around 250 soldiers and armored vehicle support.
They also came under daily heavy artillery barrages, with Russians firing between 200 and 500 artillery shells, 200 drone-dropped grenades, and dozens of FPV kamikaze strikes a day. The battalion was able to fight off the Russian attacks for days, but as Russians closed in from the north, Ukrainian heavy artillery was forced to withdraw, leaving the battalion with little to no artillery support.
After six days of intense fighting, ammunition stockpiles and supplies running low, losses mounting, and Russians surrounding the settlement from two sides, the battalion was forced to withdraw. This is where a big Ukrainian issue at Pokrovsk became apparent, as Ukrainian commanders in charge of the defense in this direction decided to sack the 11th battalion commander, blaming him for the fall of Karlivka, whereafter the battalion soldiers opened up about the reality of the situation.
Generally, Ukrainians in the Pokrovsk direction suffer from a severe lack of communication between the different brigades and battalions fighting in this direction. Ukrainian military analysts have also blamed this on a lack of management by the Ukrainian Pokrovsk tactical group command, which they state is ineffectively managing Ukrainian forces here.
Russian propaganda
Russians have also launched an extensive misinformation campaign that even reached many Western news outlets.
Russians are stating that the Ukrainian Kursk offensive was a mistake and that the Ukrainian concentration of forces to the north allowed Russians to break through toward Pokrovsk. However, not launching the Kursk offensive wouldn’t have changed anything. Russians were advancing toward Pokrovsk before the Ukrainian Kursk incursion and continued to do so afterward.
Moreover, Ukrainians expended relatively few resources in their Kursk cooperation and mainly used rapid maneuver tactics to make large, rapid gains at a low cost. While Ukrainians are vastly outnumbered at Pokrovsk, expending these resources here wouldn’t have made a large enough difference to drastically change the current situation, especially given that Ukrainians deployed assault brigades in Kursk, which are not meant to be used for defense purposes.
Some Ukrainian soldiers even suggested that the situation could have become worse if it had not been for the Kursk offensive, as Russians redeployed over 30,000 soldiers to hold the Ukrainian advance.
There were also realistic indications that Russian forces were planning to attack Sumy in the near future and that the proactive Ukrainian incursion over the international border eliminated this scenario.
Overall, Russians have increased their offensive effort on Pokrovsk and are making considerable gains due to Ukrainians being vastly outnumbered and an inadequate command and communication structure.
Russians are launching huge waves of frontal infantry and mechanized assaults with up to 200 soldiers at a time. While Ukrainians are able to inflict significant casualties on Russian forces, they simply cannot contest the current disparity in forces, allowing Russians to maintain their momentum.
It is also important to stress that the Ukrainian Kursk offensive did not lead to Russians breaking through at Pokrovsk. Due to the overwhelming Russian numbers advantage and determination to advance at all costs, the situation remains critical.
Lastly, the Institute for the Study of War stated that considering the extremely high losses Russians are taking at Pokrovsk, it remains uncertain if Russians will even be able to reach Pokrovsk before their offensive culminates.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
