Ukraine has successfully pushed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet out of occupied Crimea after two years of sustained strikes, but military experts warn that retaking the peninsula would be an extremely challenging task. According to Business Insider, Ukraine has destroyed or damaged around half of the Russian fleet’s warships, including one submarine, using a combination of aerial drones, sea drones, and anti-ship missiles.
Crimea serves as a military base, acting as a springboard for Russian offensives into Ukraine’s southern mainland. This strategic positioning allows for the consolidation of Russian military forces and assets, significantly contributing to their operational capabilities in the region.
The effectiveness of Ukraine’s campaign has forced Russian warships to withdraw from Crimea to bases in Feodosia, southern Crimea, and Novorossiysk, Russia’s eastern coast of the Black Sea. However, recapturing the peninsula itself would require significantly more manpower, firepower, air cover, and caution, according to military experts interviewed by Business Insider.
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Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that “Retaking Crimea would be extremely difficult because Crimea is essentially an island.” He highlighted the impossibility of an amphibious assault due to Ukraine’s lack of ships capable of carrying large numbers of troops and heavy equipment.
Basil Germond, an expert in international security at Lancaster University, emphasized that Ukraine would need to severely damage Russia’s vast military infrastructure across Crimea before attempting to seize it. This would involve destroying or degrading Russia’s air, air defense, missile defense, communication, and electronic warfare capabilities in the region, and “perhaps the Kerch Bridge,” connecting the occupied peninsula to Russia.
The geography of Crimea poses unique challenges for both sides. Ukraine’s lack of amphibious capabilities means it would be forced to attack through heavily fortified Russian defensive lines to approach the peninsula. Mark Temnycky, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, noted that Russian forces are well-defended in these areas, and it will take time for Ukrainian troops to break through.
Experts also pointed out that Ukraine currently lacks the manpower and air cover required for a major offensive. Benjamin Friedman, policy director at the Defense Priorities think tank, stated that even with F-16s, Ukraine would struggle to provide effective close air support against Russian air defense capabilities.
Despite these challenges, some experts believe Ukraine could potentially retake Crimea with enough weapons, troops, and time. Sergej Sumlenny, founder of the European Resilience Initiative Center, suggested that if Ukraine can accumulate sufficient firepower and break through Russian defensive lines, they may be able to isolate Russian forces in Crimea by destroying supply routes.
However, other experts, including Temnycky and Friedman, expressed more cautious views, stating that a full-scale invasion to retake Crimea is unlikely due to the potential for huge Ukrainian losses and the need for a “cataclysmic Russian collapse.”
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