According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian troops are attempting to regain tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks on specific sections of the front line. The ability to carry out these operations will largely depend on the influx of Western aid.
EU and US officials estimate that Ukrainian forces will continue to maintain a defensive posture for the next six months and may not be able to launch a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. However, military analysts at ISW note in their report on 12 July that Ukrainian troops are already trying to seize tactical initiative through limited counterattacks in certain areas.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are currently unlikely to achieve operationally significant successes in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy appears to aim for gradual, incremental advances rather than rapid, operationally significant maneuvers.
Ukraine is currently addressing its personnel issues and forming several new brigades. The provision of Western security assistance necessary to equip these brigades will determine when and to what extent Ukraine can counterattack.
Eearlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disclosed that 14 Ukrainian brigades are under-equipped, lacking promised weapons from allies, which delays potential counteroffensive operations against Russian forces.
Ukraine’s 14 brigades are under-equipped, lacking weapons promised earlier by allies
Smaller-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may present opportunities to achieve operationally important objectives without the challenges associated with larger operations. These could allow Ukraine to more quickly undermine Russia’s ability to maintain initiative across the theater and reduce pressure on Ukrainian forces, the ISW concludes. These Ukrainian operations need not be singular large-scale efforts, but could instead be a series of complex counteroffensive operations occurring in late 2024 and throughout 2025.
Other key takeaways from the report:
- The Kremlin continues to signal its unwillingness to participate in peace negotiations that do not result in complete Ukrainian and Western capitulation to the Kremlin’s demands.
- Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on July 12, his second in three weeks, to reiterate standard Russian threats intended to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-makers.
- The United Kingdom (UK) government has reportedly not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia, despite previous Western reporting and UK official statements to the contrary.
- The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 11 a military aid package for Ukraine worth $225 million.
- Indian state-run oil refineries are reportedly negotiating an oil import deal with Russia, likely as a result of the recent meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin and improving Russo-Indian energy relations in recent months.
- The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts to encourage self-censorship among information space voices and consolidate physical control over internet infrastructure.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
Related:
- Ukraine’s 14 brigades are under-equipped, lacking weapons promised earlier by allies
- Zelenskyy: Security guarantees boost Ukraine’s defenses but NATO membership remains the goal
- French Left’s surprise win likely to maintain strong support for Ukraine
