Russo-Ukrainian war, day 777: NATO backs Ukraine’s attacks on Russia, while US cautions on oil refineries

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Scholz's Taurus missile refusal tied to fear of Putin's nuclear threats, says Zelenskyy. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy states that Chancellor Scholz's refusal to provide Taurus missiles is due to fear of Putin's nuclear threats, underscoring the importance of Western weapons for Ukraine's survival and potential victory against Russia's invasion.

Propaganda's scalpel: How Russian lies fracture Ukraine. The Kremlin uses censorship, disinformation, and digital control to create an alternate reality in Ukraine's occupied regions, with the goal of dividing Ukrainians and weakening resistance.

Military

Russian ballistic missile strike hits near Odesa, killing 4 including child. Russian forces are suspected of launching an attack from their positions in the Black Sea. Russian attack on Kostiantynivka kills mother, her 13-year-old child. Ukrainian drones strike Russian aircraft plant in Borisoglebsk, satellite imagery shows. Ukrainian intelligence acknowledged orchestrating the April 9th drone attack, which involved two drones. ISW: Russian forces likely capture Pervomayske, southwest of Avdiivka. However, some Russian sources claim that Russia has not fully captured the village, one of the hottest points in the ongoing war, but reached the west of Pervomayske General Staff: Russian losses exceed 450,000 troops. This number includes 830 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day. Ukraine downs 14 drones, 2 missiles overnight. Russian drones, missiles hit energy and logistics infrustructure in Odesa & a recreational facility, an energy infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv As of 10 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 450080 (+830)
    • Tanks: 7132 (+22)
    • APV: 13667 (+47)
    • Artillery systems: 11404 (+18)
    • MLRS: 1040 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 753
    • Aircraft: 347
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9070 (+37)
    • Cruise missiles : 2067 (+2)
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 15248 (+67)

Intelligence and technology

Top US general warns Russia to gain 10:1 artillery advantage in Ukraine "within weeks". Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of US European Command, warned that the war in Ukraine has reached a critical moment. British defense firm to maintain UK-donated artillery in Ukraine under new deal. British firm BAE Systems has secured a UK contract to maintain and repair donated L119 Light Guns directly in Ukraine. British ministry: Russia aims to recruit 400,000 contract soldiers in 2024. Russia aimed at sustaining its forces in Ukraine, which have suffered significant losses, and plans to increase the size of its armed forces to 1.32 million this year and 1.5 million subsequently, according to the British Defense Ministry. US transfers seized Iranian arms to Ukraine. US seized over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPGs & 500,000+ rounds of ammo in July 2023 forfeiture against Iran's IRGC. The weapons were being illicitly transferred from IRGC to Houthi rebels in Yemen, violating UN sanctions.

International

"Time is short": Barbra Streisand, Sean Penn, Imagine Dragons demand US help Ukraine now. The signatories argue that Ukrainian armed forces are defending American interests. Stoltenberg: Kyiv justified in striking military targets outside Ukraine. Earlier, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries could affect global energy markets. Ukraine Peace Summit set for June 15-16 in Switzerland; Russia out, Biden likely in. Moscow confirmed that Russia has not been invited and will not attend. US defense secretary warns Ukraine over strikes on Russian oil refineries. Lloyd Austin claims these attacks can have "a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation." Germany delivers military aid to Ukraine. The new aid package contains thousands of artillery shells, armored vehicles, reconnaissance drones and demining systems

Political and legal developments

Zelenskyy calls Trump's alleged peace plan for Ukraine "very primitive". Zelenskyy emphasized that human lives are at stake, hence the importance of realism and substantive arguments over fantastical notions, while Trump allegedly proposed to surrender Ukrainian Crimea and the Donbas region to Russia. SBU detains ex-lawmaker of pro-Russian party while attempting to flee Ukraine. The 60-year-old is suspected of financially contributing to Russian aggression through taxes paid by his company to Russian authorities after re-registering under Russian jurisdiction Read our earlier daily review here.