“It is our common purpose, over time, to do for Europe’s east what NATO has already helped to do for Europe’s west. Steadily and systematically, we will continue erasing the line drawn in Europe by Stalin’s bloody boot,” said the then Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in 1999 while welcoming the first new NATO members since the Cold War’s end.
Exactly 25 years later, there is a new line being drawn in Europe – by a dictator of a different name who is not shy, however, of committing the same heinous crimes as the previous one.
In the heart of Europe, cities are being bombed, civilians are being killed, children are being abducted.
The German defense minister warns Russia could attack NATO in 5 to 8 years. His Danish counterpart concurs but argues we have even less time – 3 to 5 years. Historians discuss if we are entering Cold War II or World War III. Politicians and experts claim Russia presents an “existential threat” to Europe. And yet we are still not doing enough to rise to the challenge. We are moving in the right direction but too slow and too late.
At the last Munich Security Conference, ordinary Ukrainian soldiers pleaded for help. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his ministers warned that without new rounds of military assistance, the country may run out of air defense missiles in a few weeks. Kyiv and other major cities would then be left vulnerable to Russian attacks conducted with Iranian drones or North Korean missiles. The lives of millions of Ukrainian civilians would be thrown entirely at Putin’s mercy.
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But we can still set it right. In the long run, we should invest in our security to create a powerful deterrence that dwarfs Putin and his cronies. We can deepen and widen our alliances to secure a lasting peace from a position of strength. We can create a more secure and stable world.
To achieve these goals, however, we must first help Ukrainian defense forces here and now. They are brave and determined, but they are not superhumans. Urgent actions are needed.
- First, top-up the European Peace Facility by €5 billion this year.
- Second, buy artillery shells from sources and countries identified by the Czech initiative. Is not a time to be picky. Developing European long-term defense capabilities and industry is crucial, but Ukraine needs these shells immediately. On the battlefield it matters not where they came from.
- Third, make use of the Russian frozen assets. Either directly or by using them as collateral to raise debt or as guarantees for loans. Who ought to cover the cost of war – the victim and its allies or the perpetrator? We should not be looking for excuses when help is so desperately needed and so readily available.
Let’s take these actions not to escalate the conflict but to end it. Not to endanger our citizens but to keep the danger at distance. Not to “provoke” Putin but to help his victim. And maybe even Russia itself.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to president Jimmy Carter, once said that “without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” Imperialist Russia will never be a democratic one.
It is not only about Ukraine. Putin’s insatiable ambitions go much further. Do not forget the Kremlin’s demands made in 2021 as Russia pretended to negotiate a deal with the West: “withdraw your forces to positions they occupied in 1997, or there will be consequences.”
In other words, roll back history back to a time when none of the states formerly subdued by Moscow were part of the Alliance.
The risks of yielding to Russian aggression stretch beyond borders, echoing the haunting history of past appeasements. Every day that passes with Putin occupying swaths of Ukrainian land makes the appetite of other authoritarians seeking to redraw borders grow.
The choice is clear – we can either deal with a defeated Russian army at Ukraine’s eastern border or a victorious, emboldened one right at NATO’s doorstep. Today, we can either lament how the world has gotten so unstable, or we can act to bring the stability back.
Related:
- Russia’s war: an attack on Europe
- Bild: European intelligence suggests Russia may launch attack on Europe next winter
- Russia’s gamble: how and why it could attack NATO countries. Ex-NATO official explains
- AP: Baltics have 3 or 4 years to prepare for Russian ‘test’ of NATO, Estonia FM says
- EU must support Ukraine’s victory “whatever it takes,” top diplomat says in historic speech
- Estonia: Russia preparing for military confrontation with West
