ISW: Ukraine may face frontline sector prioritization choices amid artillery shortages

The shortages in artillery and delays in receiving Western military assistance are expected to introduce uncertainty into Ukrainian operational strategies, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report. Ukrainian troops are firing no more than 2,000 155mm shells a day, less than a third of the ammunition Russia uses, it follows from a letter from Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to his EU counterparts seen by Bloomberg.

Ukraine’s artillery deficit twice as severe as EU’s 1mn round pledge falls through

In March 2023, the EU set a 12-month deadline to donate ammunition to aid Ukraine in countering Russia’s aggression. Still, the EU defense industries have struggled to scale up production, casting doubt on meeting this target. This situation, according to ISW, is likely to lead Ukrainian forces to face difficult choices regarding the allocation of resources across different front sectors. Specifically, they might have to prioritize some sectors over others where minor territorial losses would be less detrimental, ISW assessed. According to the report by Politico based on information obtained from four diplomats and an individual familiar with the talks, the Czech Republic pushes the EU to procure ammunition from outside the bloc to meet its commitments to Ukraine. Read also:

• Borrell insists EU intends to send 1,000,000 shell pledge to Ukraine even if initial March timeline not met
• Politico: Czechia advocates buying artillery shells for Ukraine from outside EU
• Lithuania delivers ammunition, detonation systems to Ukraine
• Zelenskyy announces arrival of two advanced air defense systems in Ukraine