ISW: Kremlin appears to guide Moldova’s Transnistria moves, laying ground for false flag

The Transnistrian Ministry of State Security (MGB), considered a Russian FSB extension, released a statement on 10 January about an “incident” on 7 January involving two Transnistrians allegedly transferred to Ukraine, which is still being clarified.

This follows an interview on 9 January with Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky by Kremlin newswire TASS, where he accused Moldova of militarization and halting talks, highlighting Transnistria’s close ties with Russia. These actions by the MGB and Krasnoselsky seem to be coordinated efforts by the Kremlin to destabilize Moldova and rationalize potential Russian military actions in the region. The MGB’s 10 January press release is likely also part of such Kremlin efforts.

CTP (Conflict Intelligence Team) previously analyzed that the Kremlin couldn't involve Transnistria in the Ukraine conflict due to economic interests. Notably, Transnistrian businesses, including those of influential Moldovan-Russian businessman Viktor Gushan, who wields significant influence over Transnistria's government and economy, had beneficial connections with the West and Ukraine.