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Good harvest and adaptation to war contribute to Ukraine’s expected 4.9% GDP growth in 2023

According to the latest data, The National Bank of Ukraine has improved the 2023 real GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 4.9%. 
A total grain and oilseed harvest expected in Ukraine in 2023, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Good harvest and adaptation to war contribute to Ukraine’s expected 4.9% GDP growth in 2023

A total grain and oilseed harvest is expected at 81.6 million tons in 2023, up from 73.8 million tons in 2022. It contributes to GDP growth. Other factors that contributed to the increase were the higher adaptability of business and population to wartime conditions as well as faster expansion of alternative ways of export.

Ukraine lost 29.1% of its GDP in 2022 due to the Russian war against the country, which resulted in massive destruction and occupation of nearly 20% of its territory.

In 2023, Ukraine harvested considerably more corps than in 2022 but less than in 2021 due to the loss of the territory. Still, the Ukrainian Grain Association has again increased its forecast for Ukraine’s total grain and oilseed harvest in 2023 to 81.6 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from its previous estimate.

The revised forecast reflects favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields this season.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the new 2023/2024 marketing year beginning July 1 could potentially reach almost 50 million tons. The association stressed that such a large export volume can only be achieved if Ukraine is able to ship grain from its Black Sea ports. Alternative export routes like the Danube River need to be more efficient. Restoring maritime exports and guaranteeing safe passage in the Black Sea is critical for Ukraine to supply countries facing severe grain shortages.

The wheat harvest outlook remains unchanged at 22 million tons, with preliminary government data showing 22.4 million tons harvested to date. Potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 are forecast at around 16 million tons.

The corn harvest forecast was raised by 0.8 million tons to 28.8 million, while sunflower seed production is now expected to reach 14.2 million tons, increases that account for the higher overall grain production outlook.

Ukraine was the world’s 4th largest grain exporter before Russia’s invasion in February 2022 disrupted production and exports.

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