In Kryvyi Rih, 11 civilians killed, 28 injured by a Russian missile. Zaporizhzhia’s Novodarivka village liberated – Territorial Defense Forces. IAEA seeks expanded access to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Everyday Hell: Review of the documentary The Eastern Front: Terror and Torture in Ukraine
Daily overview — Summary report, June 13
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, June 13, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:
Military Updates
Railway partisans: Crimea’s rail connection with mainland occupied Ukraine targeted in string of attacks. Over 10-12 June, four presumably partisan rail attacks took place in Russian or Russian-occupied territories. One of them destroyed one of two railways that Russia uses to connect Crimea with its troops in occupied mainland Ukraine.
Zaporizhzhia’s Novodarivka village liberated – Territorial Defense Forces. On 12 June, the Zaporizhzhia Separate Territorial Defense Brigade reported that it had earlier liberated Novodarivka Village in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a few kilometers away from Donetsk Oblast’s Blahodatne which was reportedly liberated on 11 June.
Frontline report: Ukrainian forces gain ground in major southern offensive. Ukrainian brigades raise flags over Neskuchne and Blahodatne, capture key heights, and put the Russian Novodarivka-Rivnopil-Staromaiorske tactical group at risk of encirclement, breaching the powerful fortifications they were unable to penetrate last time. In desperation, Russians blew up a dam.
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- In recent months, Russia has highly likely worked to ensure its long-term, high-volume supply of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs). By supplying these weapons, Iran continues to breach UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
- Russia has likely moved from receiving small deliveries of Iranian OWA-UAVs by air transport, to larger consignments by ship from Iran via the Caspian Sea. This ‘International North-South Transit Corridor’ has assumed much more importance since the invasion. It allows Russia to access Asian markets – including arms transfers – in ways it hopes are less vulnerable to international sanctions.
- Russia is also working to start domestic production of OWA-UAVs, almost certainly with Iranian assistance. Russia is highly likely investing in OWA-UAVs because it provides Russia with a relatively cheap long-range strike capability at a time when it has expended a large proportion of its cruise missile stocks in Ukraine.
Losses of the Russian army
Humanitarian
Drowned woman and man found in flooded Kherson – Oblast Head. On 12 June, Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Prokudin reported that an unidentified woman and a 50-year-old man were found drowned in one of Kherson’s districts. According to him, the official death toll from the flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam by Russia is currently at ten, 20 more people were injured, including five police officers and two rescue workers, 25 people are missing, including seven children.
Eleven civilians were killed in a Russian missile attack that struck an apartment building and warehouses in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih on Tuesday, local officials said.
Environmental
Technological catastrophe looms as Russians mine titanium plant in occupied Crimea – Ukrainian intel, partisans. Russian engineering units are reportedly mining workshops of the Krymskyi Titan enterprise in Armyansk, in northern occupied Crimea, which could trigger a technogenic catastrophe, Ukraine’s intelligence has said. An agent of the Atesh partisan movement confirmed the information. The agency stated that due to Russia’s destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric power plant and ensuing drop in water supplied to occupied Crimea through the North-Crimean Canal, production processes at the Krymskyi Titan factory in Armyansk have been critically disrupted and there are rumors that it will be shut down.
IAEA seeks expanded access to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Amid concerns over cooling capabilities at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the IAEA has requested expanded access for a thorough investigation. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has requested broader access to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine. The aim is to investigate a “significant discrepancy” in the water level data at the damaged Kakhovka dam, used for cooling the plant’s reactors. The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, announced the need for expanded access in a statement on the agency’s website.
Russian forces blow up a dam in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine’s military spox says. Russian forces have blown up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River, near the town of Novodarivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Valeriy Shershen, spokesman for the Joint Coordination Center of the Tauride Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Army, told the Ukrainska Pravda. As a result of the explosion, both river banks were flooded. According to Valeriy Shershen, Russian troops destroyed hydroelectric structures on the Mokri Yaly River to slow down the Ukrainian counteroffensive on the southern front.
Legal
Canada to confiscate huge Russian cargo plane, hand it to Ukraine: Trudeau. In a boost to its cargo sector, Ukraine will receive from Canada a Ruslan An-124, the “younger brother” of the world’s largest cargo plane Mriya, destroyed by Russia in February 2022. Ukraine will receive a confiscated huge Russian cargo jet, the An-124 that was arrested in Canada last spring, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during an unannounced visit to Kyiv.
Support
Denmark to send Ukraine 2,000 artillery shells. On a Ukrainian request, Denmark will send 2,000 artillery shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to Denmark’s Defense Ministry. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen have received the Danish Parliament’s approval for the new donation to Ukraine, Nyheder reports.
Ukraine asks Germany to send more Leopards and Marders. As Ukraine continues its counter-offensive, Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk calls for Germany to triple its provision of Leopard 2 tanks and send 60 Marder IFVs to replace losses. As Ukraine intensifies its counter-offensive against the Russian invasion in the country’s south and east, Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk is appealing for more German-made Leopard 2 tanks, n-tv reports. This call comes in the wake of initial losses in the conflict. Experts from Germany’s FDP and CDU political parties are expressing support for this request.
New Developments
G7 working on scheme to combat Russia’s theft of Ukraine grain, UK says – Reuters. The Group of Seven is working on a scheme to combat the suspected Russian theft of Ukraine’s grain by using chemical identification of grain origin, Britain’s food and farming minister Mark Spencer said on 12 June, according to Reuters.
Ukraine, Moldova to build bridge across the Dniester bypassing occupied Transnistria. Ukraine and Moldova will build a bridge across the Dniester River near the settlements of Yampil (Ukraine’s Vinnytsia Oblast) and Cosăuţi (Moldova’s Soroca district), UNIAN reports. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, the parties have signed an agreement on the bridge construction. The bridge will be over 1.4 km long and have two lanes. It will relieve the border crossing checkpoint Mohiliv-Podilskyi – Otaci, and become an alternative to the ferry at the crossing point Yampil-Cosăuţi.
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of June 12, 2022:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on June 12 that Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Tavrisk (Zaporizhzhia) directions have advanced 6.5km and retaken 90 square kilometers of territory over the past week.[1] Maliar added that Ukrainian forces liberated one settlement in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and six settlements in eastern Zaporizhzhia and western Donetsk oblasts in the same period. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian troops continued counterattacks on the flanks of Bakhmut and advanced 250 to 700 meters in unspecified areas on the outskirts of the city.[2] Russian sources noted that Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks on Russian positions southwest, north and northwest of Bakhmut, particularly near Berkhivka (3km northwest of Bakhmut).[3] Geolocated footage posted on June 12 additionally indicates that Ukrainian forces have made limited advances in western Donetsk Oblast south of Velyka Novosilka.[4] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are trying to counterattack in this area and that fighting continued in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast area over the course of June 12.[5] Russian milbloggers additionally reported Ukrainian combat activity in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast near Orikhiv, but noted that the intensity of attacks on this sector has decreased somewhat.[6]
Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 in western Donetsk Oblast following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient on June 11. Russian sources reported that elements of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) launched a large counterattack against Ukrainian forces in the Vremivka salient on June 12.[7] Russian forces have made no confirmed territorial gains in these counterattacks as of this publication, though some Russian sources reported that Russian forces recaptured Makarivka (5km south of Velyka Novosilka).[8] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that Ukrainian forces still control Makarivka as of June 12.[9] A Russian source reported that fighting in the Vremivka salient as ongoing and that the results of the battle are unclear.[10] Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin claimed that, if true, these reports confirm the success of Russian flexible defense tactics in the area and that the Russian military command cares more about wearing down Ukrainian forces than regaining territory.[11] Girkin claimed that the typical defense of Russian forces is to retreat to rear areas to draw Ukrainian infantry out from Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare coverage. Girkin claimed that Russian forces then attack the area with tank and air defense support in order to prevent the Ukrainian forces from deploying air defense elements forward to newly gained areas.
Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defenses against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces managed to make tactical gains on June 11 due to heavy rain and fog preventing Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and army aviation (rotary wing aircraft) from striking Ukrainian force concentrations.[12] Russian sources reported that Russian VKS and army aviation resumed intense airstrikes against Ukrainian forces on June 12 after the rain cleared.[13] Girkin claimed that the weather will play an important role in determining the outcome of operations in this sector in the coming days.[14]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on June 11 that he had received an order from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to subordinate his forces to Russian military command.[15] Prigozhin published a claimed segment of the letter from the Russian MoD, which instructs Wagner and other Russian volunteer military formations to inform the Joint Staff of Russian Grouping of Forces about their numbers of forces, reserves, and the supplies they have received from the Russian MoD by June 15.[16] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu previously announced on June 10 that Russian volunteer personnel must sign contracts directly with the Russian MoD by July 1.[17] Prigozhin later claimed that Wagner is receiving 2.5 times more recruits after the recent “provocative announcements about the need to terminate the existence of Wagner private military company [PMC],” stating that Russian volunteers are joining Wagner to avoid signing contracts with the Russian MoD.[18] Prigozhin accused the Russian MoD of using this formalization effort to harm Wagner amidst the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives.[19]
The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin’s independence. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed that Shoigu’s new decree legalizes the destruction of PMCs and that the Russian MoD will use this decree to stop providing Wagner forces with ammunition, medical assistance, and military equipment.[20] A member of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee (and an avid critic of Wagner) Viktor Sobolev claimed that the Russian MoD will not permit volunteers to participate in hostilities without signing a military contract with the Russian MoD, which may make it illegal for Wagner forces to operate on the frontlines.[21] Russian milbloggers implied that the order may allow the Russian MoD to retain contract servicemen longer on the frontlines, as they claim the Russian MoD is less likely to abide by contract periods than PMCs like Wagner.[22] One prominent milblogger claimed that the timing of Shoigu’s announcement is strange given that Ukrainian forces just launched a counteroffensive, and another noted that the Russian MoD is prioritizing bureaucratically eliminating Wagner instead of focusing on the counteroffensive.[23] The Russian military command similarly ordered formalization of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics’ (DNR and LNR) militias in January and February ahead of the Russian winter offensive.[24] Shoigu and the Russian military command may be leverage possibly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russian forces successfully conducted some defensive operations in southern Ukraine to pursue the formalization of Russian irregular forces that they likely originally planned in winter 2023. Prigozhin’s operations on the Bakhmut frontline in winter and spring 2023 and the Russian MoD’s lack of decisive victories in Donbas may have limited the Russian MoD’s ability to pursue its desired formalization of Russian forces. The move is likely militarily sound and in part unrelated to the dispute with Prigozhin, as a formal accounting and direct control of Russia’s array of irregular formations will likely enable the Russian military command to redeploy forces as needed.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to rhetorically align himself with the Russian MoD and further distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Kadyrov reported on June 12 that several Chechen commanders, including Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apti Alaudinov, met with Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Alexei Kim to sign a military contract with the Russian MoD that will grant Akhmat forces the same legal status, rights, and benefits as official MoD personnel.[25] Kadyrov emphasized the importance of this contract for the effectiveness of Akhmat troops and claimed that Chechen fighters have been instrumental in supporting Russian operations in Ukraine.[26] Kadyrov’s public display of agreement with the Russian MoD further aligns him and Akhmat troops with the official Russian military apparatus while further distancing Kadyrov from Prigozhin, who notably is pushing back on the MoD contracts as a direct attack on the Wagner Group.[27] Kadyrov will likely continue efforts to curry favor with the MoD as he tries to increase the prominence of Chechen troops.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front on June 12.
- Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient in western Donetsk Oblast on June 11.
- Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defenses against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on June 11 that he had received an order from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to subordinate his forces under the Russian military command.
- The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin’s independence.
- Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to rhetorically align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and further distancing himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and made gains as of June 12.
- Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counteroffensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.
- Social media video footage circulated on June 12 reportedly shows Russian barrier troops shooting Russian forces that abandoned their positions somewhere in Ukraine.
- Russia continues to strengthen the legal regime in occupied areas of Ukraine under martial law.
