In its December 12 Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry says that it is improbable that Russia is able to generate an effective striking force to achieve Russia’s claimed main objective of capturing Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.
The ministry tweeted:
- “On 8 December 2022, Russian presidential spokesman Dimitry Peskov rearticulated the main goals of the ‘special military operation’. He said that one of Russia’s main objectives was the ‘protection’ of residents of the Donbas and south-eastern Ukraine but claimed there was still much work to be done regarding ‘liberation’ of those territories.”
- “Peskov’s comments suggest that Russia’s current minimum political objectives of the war remain unchanged. Russia is likely still aiming to extend control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Russian military planners likely still aim to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk Oblast.”
- “However, Russia’s strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas. Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months.”
Kremlin likely not abandoned its maximalist objectives in Ukraine – ISW
