Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson, Institute for the study of war estimates.
At the same time, Russian forces continue their limited offensive attempts in Bakhmut area in Donetsk Oblast, where they have captured two villages yesterday. Kremlin desperately needs the pause to reconstitute Russian forces, that is why it promotes the idea of negotiations, ISW assesses.
“The major Ukrainian victory underway in Kherson Oblast will not be Ukraine’s last… Russian officials are busy attempting to train 120,000 conscripts to deploy to the frontlines in the spring. Ukrainian forces likely aim to liberate as much occupied territory as possible before those Russian reinforcements arrive… A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine,” ISW wrote in its morning report.