Russo Ukrainian War. Day 223: Ukraine advances in Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. Zelenskyy answers Musk

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Kherson Oblast. The Russian troops launched 3 rockets and 12 air strikes, and launched more than 100 MLRS attacks and shelled more than 20 settlements. The US to announce the dispatch of 4 more HIMARS as part of a new $625 million military aid package to Ukraine. The EU signed a memorandum on the provision of 5 billion Euros of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. France to transfer 20 ACMAT Bastion IMV wheeled armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. The State Duma [the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament] approved the “ratification” of illegal agreements on the inclusion of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine into the Russian Federation. Pentagon warned Russia about the inadmissibility of using nuclear weapons. Russian officials released the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Daily overview — Summary report, October 4

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 4, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below

Situation in Ukraine. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW.

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The two hundred-twenty-third (223) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
The enemy is trying to hold the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on attempts to disrupt the active actions of the Defence Forces in certain areas. The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the contact line, conducting aerial reconnaissance. Attacks civilian infrastructure and civilian homes, violating international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war. There remains the threat of the enemy launching air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
Over the past day, the occupiers have launched 3 rocket and 12 air strikes, launched more than 100 MLRS attacks.
More than 20 settlements were affected by enemy strikes. In particular, Bilohorivka, Zaitseve, Maryinka and Bakhmut.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks and artillery systems of various types:
Kharkiv Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Slobozhanskyi direction – in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha and Dvorichna;
in the Kramatorsk direction – Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka. It also carried out mining on the routes of the possible advance of units of the Defence Forces;
in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of Soledar, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Zaitseve, Yakovlivka;
in the Avdiyivka direction – Avdiyivka, Maryinka, Novoukrayinka, Novomykhailivka, Sukha Balka.
Areas of more than 20 settlements along the contact line were shelled by tanks, mortars, and barrel artillery in the Novopavlovskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions. Among them are Novoyakovlivka, Hulyaipilske, Novosilka, Novopil, Zaliznychne and Bohoyavlenka.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the South Buh direction, more than 25 settlements along the contact line were shelled.
According to available information, units of the newly formed and relocated 3rd Army Corps are unable to effectively perform their assigned tasks.
Obsolete and unusable weapons and military equipment, arbitrary abandonment of positions and refusal to perform combat tasks by personnel, consumption of alcoholic beverages, systematic violations of military discipline are the main reasons for the demoralization of servicemen of units of the specified enemy unit.
In the city of Tver, Russia, due to the lack of teaching staff and technical specialists, who are involved in the war in Ukraine, training in certain courses has been suspended at the Military Academy of Aerospace Defence.
According to available information, the military leadership of the armed forces of the russian federation made a decision to transfer to the area of ​​hostilities the units of the russian guard troops based in the administrative boundaries of the Siberian Military District and the contingent of russian troops in Syria.
Over the past day, units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Vyimka, Mayorsk, Spirne, Ozeryanivka, Bakhmutske, Kamyanka and Ternovi Pody settlements.
Aviation of the Defence Forces carried out 22 strikes during the past day. It was confirmed that 3 strongholds, 16 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, as well as 3 anti-aircraft missile systems of the enemy were hit. In addition, our air defence units destroyed two enemy UAVs.
Over the past day, missile forces and artillery hit 2 control and command points, 12 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 warehouses with ammunition, an air defence facility, as well as 5 other important enemy facilities.

Military Updates

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst. ~

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Regional Updates

Donetsk Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map. October 3, 2022. Source: ISW.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops fired on Chasiv Yar, hitting a hostel. At least one person reported under the rubble.

In Luhansk Oblast:

In Kharkiv Oblast: Russian troops  launched a missile attack on a medical facility in the Kupyansk district. According to preliminary information, an anesthesiologist killed, a nurse injured.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576940495124561921

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian military fired at Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih regions from Grads and heavy artillery. More than 1000 households lost electricity.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian military fired about 10 S-300 missiles at the city and region, hitting a building of the rehab center for children with special needs and several infrastructure facilities. One injured.

In Kherson Oblast,

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • On 30 September 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order for the routine autumn conscription cycle, which aims to train 120,000 conscripts. These conscripts are legally not permitted to be deployed outside of Russia. This is separate from those individuals being mobilised as part of the 21 September 2022 partial mobilisation order.

 

  • The conscription cycle will begin on 01 November 2022, a month later than usual. The late start to the cycle is an indication of growing pressures on Russia’s ability to train and equip a large number of new conscripted personnel.

 

  • The challenges of accommodating, training, equipping and deploying mobilised and conscripted personnel are significant. Deficiencies within the Russian administrative and logistical systems will continue to undermine these efforts.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 4 October, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Humanitarian 

Russian troops are preventing the residents of occupied territories from leaving,  said the Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk. According to her, the men may be forcefully “mobilized.”

Environmental 

Zaporizhzhia NPP Director Igor Murashov, captured by the Russian occupiers, was released.
Nord Stream 2 gas leaks reported again, according to CNN with reference to the Swedish Coast Guard.

Legal 

Support 

Czech activists collected 1.2 million Euros to buy T-72 Avenger “Tomas” tank equipped with ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The US to announce the dispatch of 4 more HIMARS as part of a new $625 million military aid package to Ukraine.
The EU signed a memorandum on the provision of 5 billion Euros of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmygal.
France plans to transfer 20 ACMAT Bastion IMV wheeled armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. In addition, they plan to transfer €50 million, through which Ukraine will be able to purchase military equipment from French companies.

New Developments 

The State Duma [the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament] approved the “ratification” of illegal agreements on the inclusion of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.
The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, warned Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the inadmissibility of using nuclear weapons.  He added that he did not see anything that would lead him to believe that Putin had made the decision to use nuclear weapons.

 

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 3 October, 2022:

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops made significant breakthroughs in northern Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3.[1] Geolocated footage corroborates Russian claims that Ukrainian troops are continuing to push east of Lyman and may have broken through the Luhansk Oblast border in the direction of Kreminna.[2] As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. This phenomenon was also visible in the collapse of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army earlier in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.[6]

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be continuing efforts to redirect blame for recent Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian outlet РБК (RBK), citing sources within the Russian regime, reported on October 3 that Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov has replaced Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev as commander of the Western Military District (WMD).[7] As ISW previously assessed, WMD units have been largely operating in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast over the last few months but without a clear commander. Zhuravlev has not been seen for some time, and Putin cycled through two commanders of the “western grouping of forces” in two weeks. Putin may be attempting to redirect the growing anger for Russian losses in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman by assigning a new face prominently to the WMD.[8] This announcement may also be an effort to shield Colonel General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Central Military District (CMD), from widespread criticism for recent Russian failures around Lyman.[9] Putin may seek to shift the blame for future Russian losses in Kharkiv and possibly Luhansk Oblasts to Berdnikov. Criticism of Lapin in recent days has served as a catalyst for wider breakdown within the Russian nationalist information space, and Berdnikov’s appointment may be intended to distract and redirect that growing dissatisfaction.

Russian officials released Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) director Ihor Murashov from detention and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant. Energoatom reported that the Russian military detained Director General of the ZNPP Ihor Murashov on September 30 and released him into Ukrainian-controlled territory on October 3 following talks with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Raphael Grossi.[10] Russian officials will likely not allow Murashov to return to his position at the ZNPP. Russian officials will likely attempt to use their physical removal of Murashov to assert further control over the nuclear power plant.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the appointment of Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov to the command of the Western Military District to redirect blame for recent or future Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian officials released the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whom they had illegally detained, and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.
  • Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is introducing punitive measures to target the Russian bureaucratic institutions responsible for the execution of partial mobilization.
  • Russian officials acknowledged that the Kremlin intends to invade, occupy, and illegally annex additional Ukrainian territory in the south and east and may alter the claimed borders of its occupied territories.
  • The Russian State Duma approved the Kremlin’s illegal accession treaties on October 3 and laid out the administrative timeline for integrating illegally annexed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.

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