Russo Ukrainian War. Day 219: Putin to announce the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication that support Russian troops. Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline. Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast. Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine. Putin is preparing to announce the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories following the results of the fake “referenda.” Zelenskyy convenes an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council on September 30. The Russian troops shelled almost 50 settlements, including Mykolaiv and Dnipro. The Ukrainian army seized more equipment from the Russian troops than received from partner countries. The Swedish Coast Guard discovered the fourth gas leak at Nord Stream. 4 marines and 2 civilians returned to Ukraine in another prisoner swap with Russia. The US to deliver $12.4 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine. Several countries, including the US, Bulgaria, Poland, Latvia and Romania and Italy, recommend their citizens leave Russia.

Annexation of Southern and Eastern Ukraine. 2022. Source. ~

Annexation of Southern and Eastern Ukraine. 2022. Source.

Daily overview — Summary report, September 30

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, September 30, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below.

Situation in Ukraine. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW.

Show the Content

The two hundred-nineteenth (219) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
Donetsk Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW.

The enemy continues to focus its efforts on attempts to fully occupy the Donetsk oblast and hold the captured territories, as well as disrupt the active actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions. The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the contact line, conducting aerial reconnaissance. Strikes civilian infrastructure and peaceful residential areas, violating international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war. There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
Over the past day, the russian occupiers have launched 5 missile and 11 air strikes, launched more than MLRS 100 attacks on military and civilian objects on the territory of our country.
Almost 50 settlements were affected by enemy strikes. Among them are Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolayiv, Nikopol, Voznesensk, Pavlivka, Visokopillya, Bilohirka and Myrne.
The situation in the Volyn and Poliske directions has not changed significantly. At the same time, in the republic of belarus, an inspection of the means of radio technical support of the airfield network began on September 21, which may indirectly indicate the possibility of using belarusian airfields by the armed forces of the russian federation. Also, there was a rotation of aviation units of the joint training center of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus and the russian federation, with the replacement of three of the four existing Su-30M multi-purpose fighters. The threat of missile and air strikes from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus remains.
In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, namely:
in the Siversky direction – in the areas of Senkivka and Sosnivka settlements of Chernihiv oblast and Novovasylivka and Pavlivka of Sumy oblast;
Kharkiv Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Slobozhanskyi direction – in the areas of Petropavlivka and Kyrylivka settlements;
in the Kramatorsk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Bohorodichne, Blakytni Ozera, Shchurove, Dibrova and Ozerne;
in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of Verkhnokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Yakovlika, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Odradivka, Zaytseve, Severnye and Mayorsk settlements;
in the Avdiyivka direction – in the areas of the settlements of Tonenke, Avdiyivka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. Shelling from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery was recorded in the areas of settlements of Novopil, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Mykilske, Zaliznychne, Zeleny Hai, Dorozhnyanka and Novoukrayinka.
More than fifty settlements along the contact line were shelled in the South Buh direction. In particular, Arkhanhelsk, Belousov, Sukhyi Stavok, Shyroke, Bezymene, Kvitneve, Ivanivka, Zorya, Olhyne, Lymany, Blahodatne, Pravdyne, Myrne and Oleksandrivka.
The occupation leadership of the temporarily occupied territories forces local residents to obtain citizenship and passports of the russian federation. For example, in the city of Mariupol, teachers of educational institutions are threatened with dismissal if they refuse to exchange their Ukrainian passport for a russian one, while other residents are allowed not to hand over their Ukrainian passport upon receiving a russian one. In the settlement of Tokarivka, Kherson oblast, the occupiers warned that if they do not receive passports of the russian federation by October 1, the residents will be subject to eviction and deportation outside the occupied territories.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 29, 2022. Source: ISW.

In Kherson, the occupiers evicted the residents of several hostels, for the further settlement of servicemen of the russian occupying forces, who arrived to reinforce units in this direction.
According to detailed information, during the last few days enemy losses have been confirmed in certain directions, namely:
in the village of Bakhmutivka, Luhansk oblast, as a result of an attack on the enemy’s concentration area, more than fifty servicemen were killed, and seventeen units of enemy equipment were destroyed;
in the settlement of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast, up to fifty enemy servicemen were injured, and ten units of weapons and military equipment were destroyed;
in the Hulyaipole district of the Zaporizhzhia oblast, up to forty enemy servicemen were injured;
in the city of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia oblast, the control post, the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was destroyed and more than fifty occupants were injured.
Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Kurdyumivka, New York, Pervomaiske and Bezimenne settlements.
To support the actions of the land groups, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 29 strikes during the day. The defeat of six strongholds, twenty areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, as well as three anti-aircraft missile systems of the enemy was confirmed. In addition, our air defense units shot down seven UAVs, in particular, five of Iranian production, one Mi-8 helicopter and a Su-25 attack aircraft.
Over the past day, missile forces and artillery hit five command posts, fifteen areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, six warehouses with ammunition and fuel and oil, one anti-aircraft missile complex and eight other important enemy facilities.

Military Updates

The Ukrainian army seized more equipment from the Russian troops than received from partner countries, according to Forbes Only. The Ukrainian army captured up to 400 tanks, 700 armored vehicles, and 170 artillery systems from the Russians which is more than deliveries from the US, Poland, and Britain.

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst. ~


Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus issued an official statement claiming that mobilization is not carried out in the Belarusian Army. All military training camps are functioning in an everyday mode. The monitoring group Belarus Gayun notes that, despite the fact that the state bodies of Belarus systematically disseminates false information, at present, there are no signs of the preparation for mobilization in Belarus.

 

Regional Updates

In the Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian troops fired on a public transportation stop in the city of Mykolaiv using cluster shells. 2 killed, 12 injured.

In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian army hit the city of Dnipro with a Soviet Kh-22 missile. The warhead of this missile weighs more than 900 kg, and the length of the missile is more than 11 meters, said Yury Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, such missiles are very inaccurate and destructive. “This is an extremely fast missile, we need modern means of counter these missiles,” he said. The Kh-22 missile has been developed since 1958 and was officially adopted in 1971. In total, 4 killed in the night strike on the Dnipro, including 2 children – an 8-year-old boy and a 9-year-old girl.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Medical provision for Russian combat troops in Ukraine is probably growing worse. Some newly mobilised Russian reservists have been ordered to source their own combat first aid supplies, with the advice that female sanitary products are a cost-effective solution.

 

  • Medical training and first-aid awareness is likely poor. Some Russia troops have obtained their own modern, Western-style combat torniquets but have stowed them on their equipment using cable-ties, rather than with the Velcro provided – probably because such equipment is scarce and liable to be pilfered.

 

  • This is almost certain to hamper or render impossible the timely application of torniquet care in the case of catastrophic bleeding on the battlefield. Russian troops’ lack of confidence in sufficient medical provision is almost certainly contributing to a declining state of morale and a lack of willingness to undertake offensive operations in many units in Ukraine.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 30 September, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Humanitarian 

In the Kharkiv Oblast, another torture chamber was found in the de-occupied Volchansk. Russian occupying authorities kept 20 – 40 local residents in one room and used torture.

Environmental 

The Swedish Coast Guard discovered the fourth gas leak at Nord Stream. Two leaks are located in the Swedish maritime zone.

Legal 

The Russian Federation’s plans to annex the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories violate the UN Charter and cannot be recognized by the international community, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Any decision to extend the annexation of Ukrainian territory will have no legal force, and deserves condemnation,” he said.

Support 

The US Senate approved a bill to continue financing the government, including $12.4 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine. Thus, $7.8 billion of this assistance will go to defense, and the rest will go to direct budgetary support for Ukraine.

New Developments 

The President of Turkey Erdogan urged Putin to “give another chance” to negotiations with Ukraine.  Ankara is ready to mediate, Erdogan said in a telephone conversation with Putin. Putin told Erdogan that the emergency at Nord Stream is an act of international terrorism, therefore Russia is bringing this issue up for urgent discussion in the UN Security Council.

In a new statement,  Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the dispatch of mobilized to Ukraine.  In a new appeal to the heads of security agencies and intelligence services of the CIS member states, Putin also stated that “scenarios are being developed in the West to incite new conflicts. There are risks of destabilization of the entire Asia-Pacific region.” He also said that “the CIS countries should counter international terrorism.”

The Embassy of Italy recommends that Italian citizens leave Russia. Earlier, other countries, including the US, Bulgaria, Poland, Latvia and Romania, also appealed to citizens to urgently leave the Russian Federation.

Zelenskyy convenes an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council on September 30. At 15.00, Putin is preparing to announce the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories following the results of the fake “referendums.”

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 30 September 2022:

The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged and deflected the blame for repeated “mistakes” during the first week of mobilization in his opening remarks at the Russian Security Council meeting on September 29.[1] Putin recounted instances of mobilizing men without prior military experience, assigning servicemen to the wrong specializations, and unfairly mobilizing men with health conditions or large families. ISW has previously reported that Kremlin-state media began exploring similar complaints just days after Putin’s declaration of “partial mobilization.”[2] Putin called on the Russian General Staff, Ministry of Defense (MoD), and federal subjects to fix the reported problems with mobilization, while noting that prosecutors and working groups within enlistment centers will monitor all complaints. Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin also announced that Russian men with a military registration cannot leave their permanent residence without the approval of enlistment centers.[3] Volodin and the Kremlin’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later retracted these statements, noting that the Russian MoD informed him that Russian officials may only restrict the movement of military-registered men in case of full mobilization.[4] Republic of Dagestan Head Sergey Melikov also condemned a police car with a loudspeaker that ordered all men to appear at the enlistment center while driving around Derbente, Republic of Dagestan, stating that local authorities did not authorize such announcements.[5]

The Kremlin’s contradictory statements and procedures demonstrate the fundamental nature of the systemic weakness of the Russian military establishment that have characterized the entire invasion. Russian officials continue to execute a supposed reservist call-up as a confused undertaking somewhere between a conscription drive and the declaration of general mobilization, likely issuing conflicting orders to already flawed bureaucratic institutions. CIA Director Williams Burns noted that even if the Kremlin manages to mobilize 300,000 men it will not be able to ensure logistic support or provide sufficient training and equipment to the newly-mobilized men.[6] Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces have already committed mobilized men to Kharkiv Oblast who have since told the Ukrainian forces that they did not receive any training prior to their deployment around September 15.[7]

The bureaucratic failures in the Russian partial mobilization may indicate that Putin has again bypassed the Russian higher military command or the Russian MoD. The deployment of mobilized men to centers of hostilities on the Kharkiv or Kherson frontlines may suggest that Putin is directly working with axis commanders on the ground who are likely clamoring for reinforcements, rather than following standard military practices (that are also required by Russian law) such as providing training to the mobilized prior to their deployment to the frontlines. ISW has previously reported that Putin bypassed the Russian chain of command on numerous occasions when making decisions regarding the progress of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine, likely because he had lost confidence in the Russian MoD.[8] The contradictory and inconsistent narratives used by Kremlin officials and the Russian MoD about mobilization procedures could indicate that Putin, as the supreme commander, issued divergent or contradictory orders.

Belarus remains highly unlikely to become directly involved in the war in Ukraine on the part of Russia, despite statements made by Ukrainian sources on September 29 that Belarus is preparing to accommodate newly mobilized Russian servicemen. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Belarus is preparing to accommodate up to 20,000 mobilized Russian men in existing civilian premises, warehouses, and abandoned agricultural facilities in Belarus.[9] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksiy Hromov, similarly stated that actions are being taken to expand the Luninets Airfield (50km from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border) and to repair storage and military infrastructure.[10] Independent monitoring organization Belarusian Hajan Project also reported that Russia delivered Su-30 aircraft to the Baranavichy airfield in Belarus.[11] These data points may indicate that Russia hopes to use Belarusian military facilities and infrastructure to hold and potentially train newly mobilized Russian forces, but it remains exceedingly unlikely that these are leading indicators of imminent Belarusian involvement in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf. Hromov also stated that there are no signs of Russian troops forming a strike group to target northern Ukraine, which suggests that Russian forces are unlikely to use Belarus as a launching pad for ground attacks into Ukraine despite reports of troop and equipment accumulations in Belarus.[12] These reports more likely suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is continuing to leverage his relationship with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in order to use Belarusian land for the development of Russian military capabilities. ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko cannot afford the domestic ramifications of Belarusian involvement in Ukraine.[13] ISW also assesses that Russia does not have the ability to form a ground strike force from scratch or from existing units in Belarus quickly.

Key Takeaways

  • The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.
  • Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.
  • Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication (GLOCS) that support Russian troops in the Drobysheve-Lyman area.
  • Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.
  • Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.
  • An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.
  • Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.

Ukraine needs independent journalism. And we need you. Join our community on Patreon and help us better connect Ukraine to the world. We’ll use your contribution to attract new authors, upgrade our website, and optimize its SEO. For as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

Tags: