Russo Ukrainian War. Day 197: Intense fighting on all fronts continues

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Ukrainian forces retake the Izium-Kharkiv area. Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian logistics nodes, manpower and equipment concentrations, transportation networks, and command and control points in Kherson Oblast.  Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, northwest of Sloviansk, northeast of Siversk, south and northeast of Bakhmut, and northwest of Donetsk City. Russian occupation authorities announced November 4 as the potential date for annexation referenda in occupied areas of Ukraine. Putin attempted to deny the IAEA’s report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant station.

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, September 8, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

Situation in Ukraine. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW.

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The one hundred ninety-seventh (197) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
Donetsk Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW.

The enemy continues to focus its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the captured districts of Kherson, part of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolayiv oblast.
The UAVs constantly conducts aerial reconnaissance, continues to take measures to improve the logistical support of its troops.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has carried out more than 10 missiles and 22 air strikes on objects on the territory of Ukraine.  In particular, infrastructure was affected in the areas of Kharkiv, Tsyrkuny, Velyki Prohody, Sloviansk, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Ivano-Daryivka, Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bohoyavlenka, Kostyantynivka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Dorozhnyanka, Trudove, Chervone, Vysokopilya, Ternovi Pody, Lozove, Olhivske, Bilohirka, Kostromka, Chervyn Yar, Sukhy Stavok, Bezymenne, Andriivka and Bila Krynytsia.
The situation has not changed in the Volyn and Polissya directions. There is still a threat of missile and air strikes on the territory of Ukraine from the airspace and the territory of the republic of belarus.
In other directions, the enemy continued to attack military and civilian objects, namely:
in the Siverskyi direction from mortars and jet artillery in the areas of settlements of Bachivsk, Ulanove and Zapsillya of the Sumy oblast;
Kharkiv Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Kharkiv direction from barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Duvanka, Kostyantynivka, Udy, Dymentiivka, Borshcheva, Velyki Prohody, Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshky, Bayrak, Stary Saltiv and Peremoha;
in the Sloviansk direction from barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Hrushuvaha, Karnaukhivka, Nova Dmytrivka, Virnopillya settlements;
in the Kramatorsk direction from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Bohorodychne, Pryshyb, Tetyanivka, Sydorov, Siversk, Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele and Hryhorivka;
in the Bakhmut direction from mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, New York, Yuryivka, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Mayorsk, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Yakovlivka and Bilohorivka settlements;
in the Avdiivka direction from mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Kamianka, Vesele, Opytne, Vodyane and Pervomaiske settlements;
in the Novopavlovsk direction from mortars, barrel and jet artillery near Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Yehorivka, Velyka Novosilka and Novomayorske;
in the Zaporizhzhia direction from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of settlements of Novoandriivka, Dorozhnyanka, Novopil and Vremivka.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 7, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the South Buh region, the settlements of Stepova Dolyna, Oleksandrivka, Vesely Kut, Tavriyske, Lyubomirivka, Blahodatne, Pervomaiske, Shevchenkove, Myrne, Novohrihorivka, and Bilohirka came under fire.
Enemy troops continue to suffer losses. As a result of the fire impact on the concentration of personnel and military equipment of the enemy located on the territory of the agricultural enterprise “Ukraine” of the village of Solodkovodne, Zaporizhzhia oblast, the enemy suffered significant losses, the number is being specified.
Units of the Defense Forces hold their positions and prevent the enemy from advancing. Our soldiers successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Dibrivne, Hryhorivka, Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Mykolaivka Druha, Pervomaiske and Kamyanka.
During the day, in order to support the actions of the land groupings, the aviation of the Defense Forces carried out more than 30 strikes on strongholds and places of concentration of the enemy’s manpower and equipment. Ukrainian air defense units destroyed two Su-25 aircraft, two helicopters (Ka-52 and Mi-24) and five UAVs in different directions.
Missile troops and artillery of our land groupings of troops continue to perform tasks of counter-battery combat, disruption of the command and control system and logistical support, damage to the enemy’s manpower and combat equipment. As a result of the fire impact during the current day, the command post, the fuel and oil warehouse, the accumulation of manpower, weapons and military equipment of the enemy in the concentration areas were damaged.

Military Updates 

Over the course of the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed seven Russian ammunition depots and one HQ base.

Russia may try to seize Kyiv and advance into the western and central regions of Ukraine in 2023, wrote Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny in an article. He considered possible scenarios for Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2023 and what the goals that the Russian Federation will pursue.

  • Russia can try to re-capture Kyiv from Belarus.
  • Russian troops can advance in the south from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson Oblast. Then the Russians will have real prospects for capturing iykolaov and Odesa, as well as creating a threat towards Krivyi Ryh and, in the future, the central and western regions of Ukraine;
  • The Russian army can advance in the Zaporizhzhie direction, and attempt to capture Zaporizhzhie and the Dnipro.
  • The Ukrainian army is considering all possible scenarios.

 

Russian shelling. Icelandic Data Analyst. ~

Russian shelling. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Regional Updates

In the Donetsk Oblast, several explosions reported in a temporarily occupied Mariupol. Details TBC. Russian troops shelled Sloviansk, damaging a school and a residential building.

In the Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian invaders attacked Kharkiv three times, several cars and an industrial building reportedly on fire.

In the Kherson Oblast, a pontoon bridge destroyed by the Ukrainian army near Daryevka. Damage is visible on the building near the river pier, where an unidentified vessel has been standing since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion. The satellite recorded a cluster of Russian military equipment and a large number of trenches approximately 250 meters from the crossing.

In the temporarily occupied Crimea, no Russian warships left in the bay of the temporarily occupied Sevastopol.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • In Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian brigades continue to conduct offensive operations. Ukraine has probably destroyed a military pontoon bridge at Darivka, which Russian forces had deployed after the nearby road bridge was severely damaged.
  • The Darivka crossing is one of the main routes between the northern and southern sectors of Russia’s military presence along the Dnipro river. Ukraine’s systematic precision targeting of vulnerable crossing points likely continues to impose pressure on Russian forces as they attempt to contain Ukrainian attacks: it slows their ability to deploy operational reserves and resupply materiel from the east.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 8 September, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Humanitarian 

 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1567599876472557570

Environmental 

Russia threatens to disrupt the “grain deal” which expires in November. The Russian authorities say that under this agreement they could not take out a single ship with food. “We managed to reach an agreement, but nothing works with the Russian side. Not a single Russian vessel has exported Russian grain from Russian ports,” said Vasily Nebenzya, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN. According to him, “nothing can be ruled out.” The Russian Federation has signed a separate deal with the UN, which states that the Organization will facilitate the export of its food.

Legal 

Prosecutor General’s Office: Russia’s war has killed at least 383 children, injured over 742 since Feb. 24. The numbers are expected to be higher since they do not include casualties in the Russian-occupied territories or near the front line.

Support 

Germany donated COBRA radar and five more Gepards to Ukraine. German government COBRA (Counter Battery Radar) radar technology is an artillery reconnaissance system that can detect enemy howitzers and mortars of 80 mm caliber. The radar is estimated to be able to detect 40 firing positions in two minutes. Experts estimate the cost of the COBRA system at 50 million Euros. The Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery mount can fire 35 mm projectiles at a speed of up to 1000 rounds per minute. In real conditions, it shoots in short bursts, adapted to the target.

New Developments 

The European Commission proposes to limit the price of Russian gas, reducing it by 5 times and setting it at the level of 50 Euros per megawatt-hour. The European Commission also proposes to control the distribution of gas among countries in case of emergency. Putin said that “Russia will not supply anything to anyone: neither gas, nor oil, nor coal if it is unprofitable for us.”

France supports a price cap plan on Russian gas supply put forth by Brussels. An emergency meeting of the EU energy ministers scheduled for September 9.

Export of metal via ports would bring one and a half times more currency than grain, as stated by the head of the OP “Ukrmetallurgprom” Oleksandr Kalenkov. According to him, unblocking the export of metal through ports would be a real gift for the economy, and would help to collapse the dollar. Kalenkov explained that sending metal products to foreign markets gives more than 1.5 times more currency than agricultural products, which began to be exported under the “grain agreement.” According to the most conservative estimates, the metal can provide an additional inflow of 8–10 billion dollars a year into the country.

Hungary threatens to block EU sanctions renewal if 3 Russian oligarchs not exempted. According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty citing Hungarian diplomatic sources, Hungary will request the removal of Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov, Piotr Aven, and Viktor Rashnikov from the EU sanctions list as a condition for renewing personal sanctions against Russia. The restrictive measures, which target 1,217 individuals and 108 entities, were imposed after Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, reports The Kyiv Independent.

The US and EU increased Russian aluminum and nickel imports since February 24 by 70%, with the total value of imports being $1.9 billion, Reuters reported. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed a wide range of sanctions but has largely spared the industrial metals sector.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 7 Spetember, 2022:

Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izium. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis.[1] Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izium area.[2] Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izium, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.[3] These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.[4] The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward critical points in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Putin claimed that there is no Russian military equipment on the grounds of the ZNPP other than Rosgvardia elements.[5] Rosgvardia elements have carried out both occupation functions and frontline combat operations during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s admission that there are Rosgvardia elements on the plant’s grounds further confirms that Russian forces have militarized their presence at the ZNPP despite constant Russian denials. Putin also accused the IAEA of acting under Western pressure to not directly blame Ukraine of shelling the plant. As ISW previously assessed, the IAEA report was a coded yet damning condemnation of Russian activities at the ZNPP.[6]

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izium-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threaten Russian GLOCs in the area, prompting demoralized responses from Russian milbloggers.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
  • Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian logistics nodes, manpower and equipment concentrations, transportation networks, and command and control points in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources reported kinetic activity in northern Kherson Oblast and in western Kherson Oblast along the Kherson-Mykolaiv border.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, northwest of Sloviansk, northeast of Siversk, south and northeast of Bakhmut, and northwest of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian forces gained 400 square kilometers of territory northwest of Izium on September 6-7 as part of an opportunistic and highly effective counteroffensive in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian occupation authorities announced November 4 as the potential date for annexation referenda in occupied areas of Ukraine.

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