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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 188: Waiting for the official updates on the counteroffensive in Kherson

byZarina Zabrisky
30/08/2022
7 minute read
Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 188: Waiting for the official updates on the counteroffensive in Kherson
Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Multiple Western, Russian and independent mass media reported the possible start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian authorities asked to refrain from making any statements in order not to interfere with the military operation. The Russian army continues to focus its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the captured districts of Kherson, part of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army increased the weight of artillery fires in front-line sectors across southern Ukraine. Ukrainian long-range precision strikes continue to disrupt Russian resupply.
Situation in Ukraine. August29, 2022. Source: ISW.

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, August 30, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

 
The one-hundred-eighty-eights (188) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
Donetsk Battle Map. August 29, 2022. Source: ISW.
The enemy continues to focus its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the captured districts of Kherson, part of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblasts.
russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. Units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus are carrying out the task of strengthening the protection of the section of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in the Brest and Gomel regions.
The threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus continues.
On the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to hold separate units of the armed forces of the russian federation in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions. The enemy carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Obody, Novovasylivka and Myropilske of the Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy continues to conduct hostilities with the aim of holding previously occupied lines and preventing the offensive of units of the Defense Forces.
Kharkiv Battle Map. August 29, 2022. Source: ISW.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy fired from barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Prudyanka, Dementiyivka, Ruska Lozova, Petrivka, Stary Saltiv, Pytomnyk, Sosnivka and Velyki Prohody settlements. Used aviation for a strike near Husarivka.
The enemy was conducting an offensive battle in order to improve the tactical position in the area of ​​the settlement of Uda, after being hit by fire by our soldiers, it retreated.
In the Sloviansk direction, enemy units continued shelling from barrel artillery and MLRS near Velyka Komyshuvakha, Krasnopilla, Dmytrivka, Brazhkivka, Dolyna, and Bohorodychne.
The enemy tried to conduct aerial reconnaissance of the UAVs in the Bohorodychne area. The aircraft was destroyed by Ukrainian defenders.
Enemy units made an attempt to conduct an assault in the direction of Shnurky, but were unsuccessful and withdrew.
In the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers shelled the districts of Zvanivka, Siversk, Verkhnokamyansk, and Sloviansk with barrel and jet artillery. Airstrikes were carried out near Hryhorivka and Pryshyb.
In the Bakhmut direction, shelling from tanks, barrel and rocket artillery was recorded near Soledar, Dolyna, Zaytseve and Bilohorivka. The enemy carried out airstrikes in the areas of Soledar and Kodema settlements, as well as a rocket attack near Kostyantynivka.
The occupiers waged offensive battles in the directions of Zaytsevo, Shumy, and Kodema. They were repulsed and retreated.
In the Avdiivka direction, artillery shelling continues in the areas of Opytne, Pervomaiske, Avdiivka, Mariinka, Novooleksandrivka, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka and Tonenke settlements. The enemy waged offensive battles in the direction of Mariinka and Novomykhailivka, had no success, and retreated. Led reconnaissance in the direction of Opytny.
In the direction of Novopavlivske, the territories near Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Novopole and Zelene Pole were affected by enemy fire.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Novodanylivka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, Poltavka, Mali Shcherbaky, Zaliznychne, Novoivanivka, and Dorozhnianka. Carried out airstrikes in the vicinity of Novodanylivka, Novosilka, Kamianske and Stepove. Conducted aerial reconnaissance of the UAVs in the regions of Orihiv, Hulyaipole and Novoandriivka.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy fired in the areas of the settlements Oleksandrivka, Stepova Dolyna, Lymany, Blahodatne, Myrne, Kotlyareve, Shevchenkove, Novomykolaivka, Pervomaiske, Partyzanske, Shyroke, Chervona Dolyna, Chervony Yar, Murakhivka, Lozove, Trudolyubivka, Zelenodolsk, Olhyne, and Dobryanka . Made an air strike near Andriivka.
It led offensive battles in the direction of Potyomkine, had no success, withdrew.
Used reconnaissance UAVs near Davydiv Brid, Snihurivka, and Velike Artakove.
The enemy naval group in the waters of the Black and Azov seas focuses its main efforts on conducting reconnaissance and blocking civilian shipping. Caliber sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready for use.
There is still a threat of missile strikes on objects and infrastructure elements deep in the territory of Ukraine.

Military Updates 

Kherson and Mykolaiv Battle Map. August 29, 2022. Source: ISW.

Multiple Western, Russian and independent mass media reported the possible start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian authorities asked to refrain from making any statements in order not to interfere with the military operation.

The military calls for information silence amid news about the counteroffensive in the Kherson region. “The military operation requires silence. The fact that news from the front is causing such a stir now is not right. In the conditions of a hybrid war, an information war, one must be aware that any actions, even if they inspire, must be carried out and have a logical conclusion, and only then they can be effective,” said Natalya Gumenyuk, head of the joint press center of the southern defense forces.

Mikhaylo Podoliak, the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, urged to refrain from “super sensational statements” about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south. He advised waiting for official statements.

An American BMP YPR-765 was spotted in the South. The YPR-765 is a Dutch infantry fighting vehicle, is an improved version of the American M113A1 armored personnel carrier.

Ukrainian defenders destroyed the Russian self-propelled gun “Msta-S”, capable of hitting 29 kilometers in the north of the Kharkiv region, near the state border of Ukraine with Russia, the National Guard of Ukraine reported.

 

Shelling by Russian Troops. 29 August 2022. Icelandic data analyst.

Regional Updates

In the Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian troops fired rockets at the center of the first capital, not far from the building of the regional administration. A three-story administrative building was destroyed, and cars in the parking lot were damaged. No casualties reported. Parts of the Russian S300 air defense missile were found at the site. They will be another evidence of Russia’s crimes.

In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russia shelled three districts — Nikopol, Sinelnikovsky and Dniprovsky. In Nikopol, 1 dead, 5 injured and 1 hospitalized in serious condition.

In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, four powerful explosions in the northern part of Melitopol reported. Russians fired at Enerhodar, the satellite of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located. 10 wounded, 2 hospitalized in serious condition. 20 cars destroyed and damaged.

In the Kherson Oblast, silent mode. Updates are forthcoming.

In the Mykolaiv Oblast, 12 missiles hit Mikolayv, one hit the Ingul bridge in Mykolaiv. 2 killed, 24 injured. ️The city of Mykolaiv left without water again. Queues for water reported. Houses and educational institutions destroyed.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • From early on 29 August 2022, several brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased the weight of artillery fires in front line sectors across southern Ukraine. Ukrainian long-range precision strikes continue to disrupt Russian resupply. It is not yet possible to confirm the extent of Ukrainian advances.
  • However, since the start of August, Russia has made significant efforts to reinforce its force on the western bank of the Dnipro River around Kherson. The Southern Military District’s (SMD) 49th Combined Arms Army has highly likely been augmented with components of the Eastern Military District’s (EMD) 35th Combined Arms Army. Most of the units around Kherson are likely under-manned and are reliant upon fragile supply lines by ferry and pontoon bridges across the Dnipro.
  • This integration of SMD and EMD units suggests a significant reorganisation of Russia’s force in Ukraine. There is a realistic possibility that Russia has moved to rationalise the several, semi-independent, operational commands which contributed to its poor performance early in the invasion. If Ukraine succeeds in undertaking sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure will likely be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defences in the south.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Sunday 30 August, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Humanitarian 

 

Environmental 

The White House considers the “safest option” to control the shutdown of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby today reiterated the thesis that Russia should agree to the creation of a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Kirby also said that “the safest option” would be a controlled shutdown of the nuclear power plant’s reactors.

Russia is to blame for the fact that Europe is preparing for the winter gas crisis, said Zelensky. He accused Russia of economic terrorism. He noted that the Kremlin is trying to prevent European countries from stocking up on gas in anticipation of winter. “Europe’s independence from Russia, in particular in energy, is of fundamental importance for all Europeans. And together with Ukraine, Europe is able to do much more than with Russia,” he said at the Northern Seas Shelf conference.

Legal 

Ukrainian security services proved Kadyrov’s commander guilty of killing five people in Bucha. Iznaur Musaev, head of the Akhmat Rapid Response Group, killed five Ukrainians in half an hour during the occupation of the Kyiv region. All were shot in the head. Under his leadership, the Russian invaders terrorized the inhabitants of the village of Mikulichi — they carried out special raids to intimidate civilians, raped women and executed men without trial or investigation. Law enforcement officers are studying his involvement in other crimes.

Property of Medvedchuk’s wife arrested in Lviv region. Mecvechuk is Putin’s close ally. Assets include three land plots owned by Oksana Marchenko.

Support 

Nokia will cease operations in Russia. By the end of the year, the vast majority of employees in Russia will leave Nokia, and the company’s offices will be vacated.

Sweden to provide Ukraine with a new $46 million military aid package

The Norwegian government plans to allocate more than $200 million (NOK 2 billion) to provide Ukraine with gas.

The next Ramstein meeting will take place in person on September 8, 2022. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said he would hold a regular meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine’s Defense at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

New Developments 

️Russia plans to hold military exercises in the next few days. The Vostok-2022 exercises will be held from September 1 to 7 at seven training grounds in the Eastern Military District. They will involve more than 50,000 Russian servicemen and more than 5,000 pieces of weapons and military equipment, including 140 aircraft and 60 warships, boats and support vessels.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is investigating Russia transferring air defense from Syria. The diplomats received information that the S-300 systems were taken out through Türkiye. The Turkish ambassador was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and handed a note. Ukraine also requested information on the passage of a Russian ship through the Bosphorus.

Protesters broke into the government building of Iraq after their leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced his retirement from politics. Last November, his party won elections but has so far failed to form a government.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 23 August, 2022:

Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces have broken through the first line of defenses in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast and are seeking to take advantage of the disruption of Russian ground lines of communication caused by Ukrainian HIMARS strikes over many weeks.[1] Ukrainian officials did not confirm liberating any settlements, but some Russian milbloggers and unnamed sources speaking with Western outlets stated that Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements west and northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[2] The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD), Russian proxies, and some Russian milbloggers denounced the Ukrainian announcement of the counteroffensive as “propaganda.”[3]

Many Russian milbloggers nevertheless reported a wide variety of Ukrainian attacks along the entire line of contact, and the information space will likely become confused for a time due to panic among Russian sources.[4] Russian outlets have also vaguely mentioned evacuations of civilians from Kherson Oblast, but then noted that occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are calling on residents to seek shelter rather than flee.[5] ISW will report on the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a new section below.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) left for the plant on August 29. Grossi specified that he is leading the mission but neither he nor the IAEA specified a timeline for the investigation.[6]

Russian sources continue to make claims likely intended to manipulate public opinion and the IAEA investigation. Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled Enerhodar and shared photos allegedly showing the location where Ukrainian forces struck a nuclear fuel storage site on the territory of the ZNPP on August 29.[7] Ukrainian sources reported continued Russian shelling of Enerhodar near the ZNPP.[8] Russian sources claimed on August 29 that Ukrainian forces fired on the Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant deep in western Ukraine and far from the front lines; Ukrainian authorities denied these claims.[9] Russian authorities also alleged that several IAEA members from the current mission will remain at ZNPP permanently, but ISW cannot confirm these reports at this time.[10]

Satellite imagery from August 29 provided by Maxar Technologies shows Russian combat vehicles apparently sheltering under ZNPP infrastructure very close to a reactor vessel.

Maxar Imagery of the ZNPP. Source ISW. Source: Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive operation in Kherson Oblast on August 29.
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant left for the plant.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Sloviansk, southeast of Siversk, south of Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to advance around Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian federal subjects continued efforts to form new battalions, attract new recruits, and coerce conscripts into signing military contracts.
  • Ukrainian partisan activity continues to threaten Russian occupation authorities’ control in occupied territories.

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