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Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 139: Ukraine destroys 14 Russian warehouses and bases

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 139: Ukraine destroys 14 Russian warehouses and bases
Article by: Hans Petter Midttun

Ukraine destroyed 14 Russian warehouses and bases in two weeks. Another collaborator blown up in the occupied Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian army liberates Ivanivka in the Kherson Oblast. About 80% of civilians already evacuated from the Donetsk region. Over 7,000 Ukrainian soldiers missing. Eight foreign ships enter Ukrainian ports to take out the grain. Lithuania widens curbs on the Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning.

Daily overview — Summary report, July 11

A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 12/07/22. There have been no notable changes to control since the last update. Source.

According to military expert Stanislav Haider, as of July 11,

Donetsk Oblast. Fierce battles continue in Bohorodychne, the Russian forces keep advancing into this village. Another Russian assault on Krasnopillia failed. Ukraine holds the Novoluhanske direction firm despite 24/7 Russian attacks.

South of Donetsk Oblast. Artillery duels continue in the direction of Vuhledar-Volnovakha. The Russians are unsuccessfully trying to regain their lost positions. In the area of ​​Mariinka, the Russian forces tried to attack once again, but Ukrainian troops repulsed their attack.

Kharkiv Oblast. There were unsuccessful Russian attacks in the direction of Prudianka. In other areas near Kharkiv, Russians continue remote mine-laying and shelling attacks on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings.

Current situation in the east of Ukraine. map: DeepState

Zaporizhzhia oblast. The Ukrainian Armed Forces focused their main efforts on defending their newly regained positions. After the Ukrainian distant strike on a Russian warehouse in Tokmak, the Russian forces reinforced the police regime. This city is a key point for the supply of the Russian troops in Vasylivka and Polohy, now the supplies are disrupted.

Kherson Oblast. This is currently the area of the most interesting developments. On the one hand, Russians strengthened their positions to the west of Kherson. On the other hand, they are weak in the region’s northeast. Nevertheless, Ukraine has certain successes to the west of Kherson, which haven’t been widely announced yet.

The work of Ukrainian artillery. Donetsk, Luhansk, Tokmak, Nova Kakhovka, the area of Velika Shishivka, 2 villages north of Kherson, Chornobayivka, Alchevsk saw the destruction of ammunition dumps and depots. In Tavriysk, the Ukrainian artillery destroyed one Russian command post and an ammunition warehouse.

Also, the Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated several high-profile Russian officers in Kherson Oblast using HIMARS – a whole Russian division (battalion) lost its commanders.

Russian attacks and troop locations. The UK Ministry of Defense.

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, July 12, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 


“[Russian forces are focusing on establishing final control over the Luhansk region, attempts to encircle the Defense Forces group in the Donetsk region, maintaining the land corridor with the temporarily occupied Crimea, and blocking Ukraine’s maritime communications in the Black Sea.]

The situation has not changed significantly in the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions. On the last one, Russian forces shelled the area of ​​the Starykovo settlement of Sumy oblast with MLRS.

[In the Siversky direction, enemy units continue to be in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions and demonstrate their presence with the use of artillery. Yesterday, Russian forces shelled the districts of Karpovychy and Mykolaivka, Chernihiv oblast.]

[In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on holding the occupied lines in the Kharkiv direction and preventing the advance of our troops to the state border.]

  • In the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the districts of the city of Kharkiv and the settlements of Ruski Tyshki, Bezruky, Dementiivka, Lisne, Slatyne, Prudyanka, and Zolochiv.
  • Ukrainian defenders harshly suppressed Russian assault attempts in the direction of Dementiivka.
  • [Yesterday, they fired artillery, MLRS and tanks in the areas of settlements Kharkiv, Bazaliivka, Petrivka, Ruski Tyshky, Korobochkyne, Slatyne, Prudyanka, Nove, Rubizhne, Blahodatne, Kutuzivka, Zolochiv, Cherkasky Tyshky, Peremoha, Pytomnyk and Ruska Lozova .]
  • [Yesterday, Russian forces conducted an assault with Ka-52 helicopters in the vicinity of Lebyazhe, Verkhniy Saltov and Prudyanka. The UAVs conducted aerial reconnaissance near Prudyanka.]
  • In the Sloviansk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations intending to improve the tactical position in the areas of Mazanivka, Ivanivka, and Dolyna. All the actions of Russian forces in the direction of these settlements were unsuccessful. Our soldiers drove the invaders back. [Yesteday, Russian forces used artillery and MLRS in the areas of the settlements of Dibrivne, Mazanivka, Bohorodychne, Adamivka, Kurulka, Cherkaske, Krasnopillya, Mayak and Novomykolaivka. Made an airstrike near Bohorodichne.]
  • Russian forces shelled the areas of Chepil, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Barvinkove, Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Bohorodychnye and Adamivka settlements with artillery and MLRS.
  • [In the direction of Krasnopilla, our soldiers repelled another enemy assault and nullified all attempts of the occupiers to advance.]
Situation in Donetsk. July 12 2022. Source: ISW.

[In the Donetsk direction:]

  • Russian forces did not conduct active operations in the Sloviansk direction. Artillery shelling near Starodubivka, Mayaki, Raihorodok, Siversk, Kryva Luka, Donetsk, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne and an airstrike near Serebryanka were recorded.
  • [Enemy units did not conduct active operations in the Kramatorsk direction. Areas of the settlements of Siversk, Zakitne, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Zvanivka, Vyimka and Ivano-Daryivka were shelled with barrel artillery. Airstrikes were recorded near Serebryanka, Ivano-Daryivka and Spirne.]
  • In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces fired from tanks, artillery and MLRS in the areas of Yakovlivka, Berestove, Pokrovske, Soledar, Bilohorivka, Vershyna, Novoluhanske, Kodema, Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna settlements. Airstrikes near Berestove, Bilohorivka, and Vershyna. [Yesterday, the occupiers fired mortars, artillery and MLRS in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Berestove, Pokrovske, Soledar, Zaitseve, Vershyn, Novoluhanske, Klishchiivka, Kodema, and New York. Airstrikes were carried out by Su-25 attack aircraft near Pokrovske and Yakovlivka.]
  • Russian forces are trying to improve the tactical position in the Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions. Carries out systematic fire influence on positions along the contact line to restrain the actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Uses attack and army aviation. Fortification equipment of advanced positions is carried out in some areas.
  • In the Avdiivka, Kurakhivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, the occupiers are shelling the districts of Avdiivka, Mariinka, Novomykhailivka, Novoselivka, Opytne, Novobakhmutivka, Vuhledar, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhove, Stepove, and Kamianske. An airstrike was carried out near Novoandriyivka by a pair of Su-25 aircraft. [Yesterday, Russian forces fired artillery of various calibers in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Karlivka, Nevelske, Mariinka, Sribne, Novomykhailivka, Volodymyrivka, Pavlivka, Vuhledar, Perebudova, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Novosilka, Bilohirya, Poltavka, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Zahirne, Hulyaipilske, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Orihiv, Zherebyanka and Kamyanske. Airstrikes were carried out near Shevchenko and Zolota Nyva.]
  • [Our soldiers forced Russian forces to retreat when they tried to advance in the direction of Mariinka.]

In the Pivdenny Buh directions, Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on holding the occupied borders and preventing the offensive of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. In order to constrain the actions of our troops, it conducted artillery fire in the areas of the settlements of Stepova Dolyna, Lupareve, Nova Zorya, Novohryhorivka, Lyubomyrivka, Osokorivka, Olhyne, Velyka Kostromka, Karyerne, Ternivka, Polyana, Kiselivka, Pervomayske, Shevchenkove, Posad- Pokrovske, Ukrainka and Prybuzke. It carried out airstrikes near Zarichne. [Yesterday, Russian forces shelling from artillery and MLRS was recorded in the areas of the settlements of Osokorivka, Dobryanka, Olhyne, Velyka Kostromka, Karierne, Bila Krynytsia, Zeleny Hay, Kalynivka, Bilohirka, Kyselivka, Lubomyrivka, Kobzartsi, Chervona Dolyna, Partyzanske, Blahodatne, Kotlyareve, Shevchenkove , Zorya, Posad-Pokrovske, Ukrainka and Prybuzke.]

[In the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea Fleet keeps two carriers of high-precision weapons with a total salvo of up to 16 cruise missiles of the “Kalibr” type on station.]

Ukrainian aviation and missile and artillery units continue to fire at the ammunition depots, concentrations of manpower and military equipment of Russian occupiers.

[Cases of desertion and open disobedience to the command are increasingly recorded in units of Russian occupation forces.]”

Military Updates 

In two weeks, Ukraine destroyed 14 Russian warehouses and bases far in the rear – BBC, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing BBC. “In two weeks from late June to early July, Ukraine carried out 14 accurate strikes on ammunition depots and military bases of Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian territories.”

Russian warplanes not entering Ukrainian-controlled airspace for over 2.5 months – Defense Ministry, Ukrinform reports, citing the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. “Russian military aircraft and helicopters have not flown into the airspace over the territory controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for more than two-and-a-half months.

Our air defence is armed with weapons that are far from the most modern weapons, but we use them as efficiently as possible. The Ukrainian Air Force operates during the war under conditions where it is necessary to constantly move and avoid enemy missile attacks. Accordingly, Russian forces, not wanting to be shot down, changes the tactics of using its aircraft, said Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Command of the Ukrainian Air Force.”

One more puppet governor of Russia was blown up in the occupied Kharkiv region, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “In temporarily occupied Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, as a result of a car explosion, Yevhen Yunakov, appointed by the Russian occupiers to the post of manager, has been eliminated.”

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate Ivanivka in Kherson Oblast, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated the village of Ivanivka in Kherson Oblast from the Russian occupying forces.

Russians bomb battalion of Donetsk militants – Security Service of Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Russian invaders bombed the 2nd Battalion of the so-called First Army Corps of the “People’s Militia of the DNR”, which is fighting as part of the Russian army. The press office for the Security Service of Ukraine has published another intercepted conversation between militants from the so-called “DNR” [Donetsk People’s Republic – ed.], whom the Russian Federation mobilised for the war against Ukraine.”


According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Russian troops continue to make small incremental territorial gains in Donetsk oblast with Russia claiming to have seized control of the town of Hryhorivka. Russian forces also continue their assault along the E-40 main supply route towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Russian forces are likely maintaining military pressure on Ukrainian forces whilst regrouping and reconstituting for further offensives in the near future.
  • Russian Armed Forces’ personnel shortages may be forcing the Russian MOD to turn to non-traditional recruitment. This includes recruiting personnel from Russian prisons for the Wagner Private Military Company. If true, this move likely indicates difficulties in replacing the significant numbers of Russian casualties.
  • In late June, a Russian-language media agency based in Russia’s far eastern Lake Baikal region uploaded a video in which the wives of soldiers from the Eastern Military District’s (EMD’s) 36th Combined Arms Army directly appealed to a local politician for their husbands to be returned home from service in Ukraine. One woman claimed that personnel of EMD’s 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade are ‘mentally and physically exhausted’, because they have been on active combat duty since the launch of the ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022.
  • The lack of scheduled breaks from intense combat conditions is highly likely one of the most damaging of the many personnel issues the Russian MoD is struggling to rectify amongst the deployed force.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Tuesday 12 July, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

  • Personnel – more than 37470 (+70),
  • Tanks – 1649 (+4),
  • Armoured combat vehicles – 3829 (+1),
  • Artillery systems – 838 (+0),
  • Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 247 (+0),
  • Air defence means – 109 (+0),
  • Aircraft – 217 (+0),
  • Helicopters – 188 (+0),
  • Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 2699 (+3),
  • Vessels/boats – 15 (+0),
  • UAV operational and tactical level – 676 (+0),
  • Special equipment – 66 (+0),
  • Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
  • Cruise missiles – 155 (+0)

Russian enemy suffered the greatest losses (of the last day) in the Mykolaiv direction.


About 80% of civilians already evacuated from the Donetsk region, Ukrinform reports. “As of February 24, 1,670,000 people permanently lived in the government-controlled territory of Donetsk region. About 340,000 people (or 20.4%) have stayed there, Pavlo Kyrylenko, Head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, said during the nationwide telethon.”

Over 7,000 Ukrainian soldiers missing – commissioner, Ukrinform reports. “Ukraine’s call centre for the search for missing persons has registered 7,200 missing Ukrainian service members. Ukraine’s commissioner for persons who disappeared under special circumstances, Oleh Kotenko, told this to Suspilne.

If we are talking about the military, then let’s understand who the military is. There are the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there is the National Guard, there are border guards, there is SBU and these are different institutions. They are not included in the figure given by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces provide data on 2,000 missing soldiers. Our call centre registered about 7,200 people. For example, the Azov regiment is part of the National Guard [subordinate to the Interior Ministry] and there are also missing persons. They did not contact their relatives when they left Azovstal, Kotenko said. According to him, most of the missing soldiers are alive and held in captivity.”


Kyiv mayor on preparations for the heating season: I believe we’ll cope, Ukrinform reports. “Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko, speaking about preparations for autumn and winter, including providing the capital with electricity and heat, expressed his belief that the authorities will succeed in ensuring supplies. As reported, the Minister for Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine, Oleksiy Chernyshov, assured that the 2022/2023 heating season would start on time and that the tariffs would not go up.”

Hans Petter Midttun: Heating will most probably be a challenge across both Ukraine and Europe this winter. Lack of heating destroyed residential buildings and critical infrastructure will add to the challenges Ukraine is already facing. Energy insecurity and high costs will, however, also be felt all over Europe. As Russia’s efforts to destabilise Europe gain momentum, the EU might be facing increasing civil discontent and unrest.

Watch the euro, it’s heading for parity, Reuters reports, “The biggest single pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany starts annual maintenance on Monday with flows expected to stop for ten days. Markets fear the shutdown might be extended due to the war in Ukraine, raising recession risks for Europe.

Any extension in the shutdown would make it impossible to refill EU gas storage to its required levels for winter, meaning gas and electricity rationing may well start soon, according to analysts. Energy-saving measures have already started in Europe’s powerhouse economy Germany. Investors are now looking for more details on how policymakers plan to deal with potential energy shortages during the peak winter months.”

The occupiers in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia continue to steal Ukrainian grain, Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) claims. “In the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, the occupiers are trying to resume the export of Ukrainian grain. To organize the process, a “state company” (GUK) has been created. Its activities are directly controlled by collaborator Yevhen Balytskyi, a former People’s Deputy, deputy of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Council from the banned “Opposition Bloc”. Currently, he is appointed by the occupiers as the “head of the regional occupation administration in Zaporizhzhia”.

To create a working grain export infrastructure, collaborators “nationalized” (captured) the port infrastructure. “GUK” has defined purchase prices for agricultural products: fodder wheat – 6,000.00 Russian rubles, food wheat – 9,000.00 Russian rubles, barley – 7,000.00 Russian rubles per 1 ton. Farmers are not satisfied with the prices and do not want to sell the harvest. To put additional pressure on the local population, Yevhen Balytskyi said that residents can be divided into those who support the Russian Federation and will remain in their homes, and others who have to leave the territory of the region.”

Eight foreign ships enter Ukrainian ports to take out the grain, Ukrinform reports. “At the request of the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine joined the effort to ensure transportation of agricultural products by civilian ships through the Bystre mouth of the Danube-Black Sea channel. The first group of eight foreign ships has already arrived at the ports of Ukraine, the statement reads. This was announced on Facebook by the Navy press service.”

Russia Steps Up Attacks on Civilian Areas, Even With Advance Paused, The New York Times reports. “Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are regrouping, with a new offensive expected, but they continue to rain death and destruction on cities and towns. Officially, Russia’s military has paused its drive to seize Ukrainian territory, but in recent days, it has stepped up its haphazard attacks on civilian areas, a constant reminder that it can inflict casualties and destruction at will as it tries to wear down the willingness to resist.

In one town after another across three fronts in eastern Ukraine, a hail of seemingly random Russian strikes, delivered by warplanes, artillery and missiles, has killed, maimed and terrified residents and Ukrainian soldiers alike. […]

From the outset of the war, Russia has battered civilian targets, but Ukrainian and Western officials say such attacks have grown more indiscriminate, in part because Moscow is running low on modern, precision munitions and relying more on older, less accurate ones. […] Even by conservative estimates, tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers have died.”

UN to monitor Ukraine war for violations against children, The Washington Post reports. “The United Nations announced Monday it will start monitoring the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Africa’s central Sahel region for violations against children, including killings, injuries, recruitment, rape and other forms of sexual violence.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in his annual report to the Security Council on children and armed conflict that those four new conflicts have been added to 21 conflicts that the UN already is monitoring for violations of the rights of children. He said the latter conflicts saw “a high number of grave violations” in 2021. The UN chief said the protection of children was severely affected by escalating conflicts, the multiplication of armed groups, land mines and improvised explosive devices, explosive weapons in populated areas, intensified humanitarian crises, and violations of humanitarian and human rights law.

Guterres said in the report that Ukraine was being added to the monitoring effort “because of the high intensity of this conflict” and in view of the violations against civilians, including children.”

Russian invaders plan to start ‘official mobilization’ in Mariupol in autumn, Ukrinform reports. “Mobilization to the front. The occupation authorities plan to start official mobilization in Mariupol in the autumn. The mobilization of all without exception. This is not a Ukrainian mobilization, which requires experience in military service or training. They need cannon fodder, Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the Mariupol mayor, wrote on Telegram.”

Russia deploys Ukrainian residents of Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast to fight against their fellow Ukrainians, Ukrainska Pravda reports. According to Serhii Haidai, head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, and Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, “Russia is forcing Ukrainian citizens to fight against their fellow Ukrainians in the Russian-occupied cities of Luhansk Oblast. Meanwhile, Russian occupying forces are continuing to kill civilians in Donetsk Oblast.

348 children were killed, and 650 children injured, the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports as of July 10. 2,121 educational establishments are damaged as a result of shelling and bombings, 216 of them are destroyed fully. 22,749 crimes of aggression and war crimes and 11,026 crimes against national security were registered.


Russia to see sanctions exemption as weakness – Zelensky, Ukrinform reports. The decision on sanctions exemption will be perceived in Russia exclusively as a manifestation of weakness. That’s according to a video address by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine

The Netherlands to provide Ukraine with modern heavy weapons – Rutte, Ukrinform reports. “Ukraine needs our military support. We need to support Ukraine with modern weapons. I call on all my colleagues in Europe and in other parts of the world to help Ukraine with heavy weapons. Our country will provide heavy weapons, armoured vehicles and self-propelled howitzers. I want to call on our allies to do the same, the Dutch prime minister said.

He noted that the war started by Russia against Ukraine could last longer than everyone expected. However, this does not mean that the world can stand back and passively observe what will happen, Rutte stressed.”

President Biden will try to find Soviet weapons for Ukraine, Ukraine Business News reports. “US President Joe Biden has promised to support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” but neither he nor anyone else can say how long the war will last. US officials admit the US and EU stockpiles of weapons will run out at some point. Biden and his team are looking for a long-term strategy for arms shipments, as the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains remote, and the public begins to feel war-weary.

According to some estimates, military aid to Ukraine, approved by Congress, will continue until the second quarter of next year. But the question is how long the current supply of arms and ammunition will last without impairing the military readiness of the US. American officials called on other countries to provide Ukraine with stocks of Soviet-made weapons, with which the Ukrainian military is more familiar.”

Ukraine has “passed test” on new US guided rockets, needs more – Reznikov, Ukrinform reports. “Ukraine’s defence minister said his country has “passed the test” with its successful use of recently delivered American long-range artillery systems, but stressed the high attrition rate along its extensive front line has made the demand for additional supplies, such as armoured vehicles and drones, more urgent. That’s according to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, who spoke with The Wall Street Journal.

Oleksii Reznikov said the need for longer-range weapons continues to outpace the Ukrainians’ demand for shorter-range systems as the war shifts primarily to an artillery battle, and more will be needed if they are to recapture territory lost since Russia invaded on Feb. 24. We need to refresh our platoons and change them and make replacements also because we also have a lot of losses, he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. We are waiting for more armour and more weaponry from our partners. We need to rebuild some directions and refresh our fortifications and plan a new operational strategy.

He said the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, the long-range launchers known as Himars, have been a “game-changer,” enabling Ukraine to target Russian forces in the northeastern town of Izium, but added: The war is grim… We need more. We need it quickly. The minister noted that the Ukrainian military had to persuade the nation’s western partners that it can use the new weapons effectively. The successful strikes on the Russian warships and command and control posts have shown that the Army has passed the test, the defence chief stressed.

The Russians are using their MLRSs, which can go 120 kilometres,” said Mr Reznikov, referring to Russian-made multiple-launch rocket systems. “So we need to have something a little bit longer: 150 [kilometres]. Our antimissile systems can fight with their ballistic and cruise missiles – it’s not 100% but we can get them. But we cannot close the sky against their MLRSs. We’ll get there. He also said drones, including those sent by the US and other partners, are consistently being jammed by Russia and don’t have the counter-jamming software needed to gain the upper hand.”

New Developments

A. Amid Ukraine war, Russian parliament to hold an extraordinary session, ReutersThe lower house of the Russian parliament will gather on July 15 for an extraordinary session, its council decided on Monday, just days after President Vladimir Putin warned that he had not even started to get serious in the war in Ukraine. Putin used a meeting with parliamentary leaders on Thursday to dare the United States and its allies to try to defeat Russia in Ukraine, which Russia invaded on Feb. 24.”

B. Zelenskyy orders Ukrainian Armed Forces to recapture southern Ukraine – Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Ukrayiska Pravda reports, citing The Times. “Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, ordered the Ukrainian military to re-establish control over coastal regions in southern Ukraine. Ukraine is amassing a million-strong fighting force in order to achieve this goal. [The coastal areas are is vital to the country’s economy].”

C. Lithuania widens curbs on Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning, ReutersLithuania on Monday expanded restrictions on trade through its territory to Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, as more European Union sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine took effect. Additional goods barred from Monday morning include concrete, wood, alcohol and alcohol-based industrial chemicals, a spokesperson for Lithuanian customs said.”

D. Time to go back home: Yellow Ribbon resistance movement in Crimea gathers momentum, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, “The Yellow Ribbon movement of resistance against the occupiers has begun operating in the temporarily occupied city of Simferopol [in Crimea – ed.], as well as in Kherson and Melitopol.”

E. Ukraine’s Minister of Defence predicts Russian Federation’s collapse, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing The Times. “I am certain that in the next couple of years we will see multiple calls for sovereignty across the territory of the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation will cease existing as such. Several states will be formed in its place: Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and so on. Reznikov also said that the democratic world is united in its desire to make sure that Russia loses the war. As a result, this war will be the end of the [Russian – ed.] empire.”

F. Blinken says Russia’s war against Ukraine may be one of contributing factors to the Sri Lanka crisis, Ukrinform reports, citing the S. Department of State. “The war waged by Russia against Ukraine significantly affected food security in many regions of the world and had the potential to exacerbate the economic situation and political crisis in Sri Lanka. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this on Sunday during his visit to Thailand.”

Hans Petter Midttun: This is in line with my assessments since 24 February. This is just one example of what I have been calling the “tsunami of ripple effects” from the war. Food and energy insecurity, higher costs of living, inflation, recession, famine, and increased poverty will trigger global protests, demonstrations, and in the worst case, extremism. Today’s political leaders will most likely be evicted from office after the next election, possibly paving the way for more nationalistic politicians.

G. Putin decree gives all Ukrainians path to Russian citizenship, ReutersRussian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday extending a simplified Russian naturalisation process to all citizens of Ukraine, a document published on the government’s website showed.”


Situation in Ukraine. July 12 2022. Source: ISW.

On the war.

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Monday 11 July:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to grant Russian forces access to Belarusian airspace to demonstrate at least nominal support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking direct military involvement of Belarusian Armed Forces in operations in Ukraine. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Gromov previously reported on July 7 that the Belarusian government transferred the use of the Pribytki airfield in Gomel Oblast to Russia. Independent Belarusian monitoring organization The Hajun Project similarly reported on July 11 that a Russian Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft flew into Belarusian airspace for the first time since April 4. The Hajun Project noted that the Belarusian government introduced new airspace restrictions along the border with Ukraine where the AWACS aircraft patrolled between July 10 and 11. Taken together, these data points likely indicate that Lukashenko is attempting to provide support to Putin’s war in Ukraine short of direct Belarusian military intervention in an effort to respond to the pressure Putin is likely putting on him. As ISW has previously assessed, the likelihood of direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low due to the effect that might have on the stability and even survival of Lukashenko’s regime.

Key Takeaways

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to allow Russia access to Belarusian airspace to indicate support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking the consequences of direct Belarusian military involvement in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Sloviansk and west of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis.

Russian milbloggers are increasingly criticizing Russian strategy and military leadership, ISW reported yesterday. Russian milbloggers are increasingly criticizing Russian strategy and military leadership by seizing upon recent successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear areas. Russian milblogger Voennyi Osvedomitel’ underlined the threat posed by Western-provided high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) and stated that HIMARS will complicate Russian logistics in a Telegram post on July 9. Voennyi Osvedomitel’ cautioned that Russian air defense may be increasingly insufficient against Ukrainian strikes and called on Russian forces to improve coordination between intelligence and aviation in order to identify and target Western-provided weapons systems. Another milblogger with a small following, Nam Pishut iz Yaniny, complained that Russian military leadership is proving unable to defend against Western weapons being used against Russian positions. Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist who previously commanded militants during operations in Donbas in 2014, discussed recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear areas and criticized Russian troops for not targeting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along which HIMARS and other Western weapons are delivered. Girkin suggested that the ongoing operational pause is exposing easily-exploitable Russian vulnerabilities and called for Russian troops to start fighting in full force again. Girkin and other milbloggers are likely to continue voicing their discontent with Russian military leadership as Ukrainian capabilities are strengthened by Western weaponry and equipment.

Putin Ally Lukashenko Faces Revolt From Officers Against Ukraine War, Newsweek reports. “Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.

Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko […] against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is “pure suicide,” the Express reported Saturday. “By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come,” the military officers wrote.

Belarus has allowed Russia to station its troops and carry out large-scale military drills in the country since the beginning of the war, which started in late February. Meanwhile in May, Belarus launched large-scale drills of its military forces in order to test its army’s combat readiness, according to the Belarusian defense ministry.

However, some members of the Belarusian army still denounced the war, and said in the letter to Lukashenko: “Russia’s occupation of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, which is [a] friend of our state, and its attempt to pull Belarus into a completely unprovoked war against a sovereign state can only be seen as the destruction of the sovereignty of Belarus.”

They continued: “At the present moment officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces have observed the most serious infringement of Clause One of the Belarus Constitution by Russia’s highest political leadership. According to this Clause, the Belarus Republic maintains supremacy and full authority on its own territory. It also enjoys independence over its internal and foreign politics.”

Belarusians also don’t support the war in Ukraine, according to a new poll that was published by the Chatham House. The poll found that in June only 23 percent of people supported Russia, compared to 28 percent in March. Meanwhile, only 5 percent of the population think that Belarusian soldiers should join Russia to fight in the war, according to Rygor Astapenya, who is the director for Chatham House’s Belarusian Initiative.”

According to specifications, S400 complexes should shoot down HIMARS missiles, but HIMARS destroyed an S400 complex in Khartsyzsk, reported on Saturday. “Adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, wrote that “The Russian Defense Ministry has started a showdown with the management of Almaz-Antey Concern, the manufacturer of the lauded S300 and S400 air defence systems. Mikhail Fradkov, the head of the board and former Russian Prime Minister, and [General Director] Yan Novikov may not only lose their positions but also face criminal charges for undermining Russia’s defence capabilities.

The leadership of this criminal organization, when signing many billion-dollar contracts for the supply of S400, guaranteed that their air defence system would be guaranteed to shoot down not only planes and helicopters, but also missiles launched by American HIMARS.

The S400s failed, however, to shoot down a single HIMARS missile in the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson regions. Not only that, during the strike on the Russian military base in Khartsyzsk, HIMARS missiles destroyed the S400 complex that was supposed to cover the area from air strikes.”

Iran plans to send Russia drones to replenish weapons lost in the invasion, The Washington Post reports. “Iran plans to provide Russia with “up to several hundred” drones to be used in the war in Ukraine, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday — as Iranian state media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tehran next week to discuss deepening economic ties.

The move indicates Moscow is running out of precision weapons, according to US-based military analysts, who added that closer cooperation between two US adversaries is likely to encourage the West to step up military assistance to Kyiv.”

2. Consequences and what to do? 

Hans Petter Midttun:

Peace remains evasive as the war has reached its 3065th day.

Russia will not accept the status quo – parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and all of Crimea – as the outcome of the war. Putin wants all of Ukraine. While it does not need to occupy all of Ukraine to achieve a complete victory, it needs to uphold the war until Ukraine collapse and asks for peace before it accepts “peace” on its terms.

Ukraine, supported by the West, is, however, not about to falter and give in. As long as Europe and the USA stand firm alongside Ukraine, it will continue trying to liberate occupied territories. This is, after all, a country that has endured and survived six catastrophes of unprecedented scale during the last century alone. Fighting for both its independence and sovereignty, as well as its right to exist as a nation, Ukraine is not about to surrender to a terrorist state.

Vladimir Putin made a historic blunder by starting a full-scale war in Ukraine, and Russia will pay a huge price for this. Russia is, however, willing to bear the costs as it is fighting for its imperial ambitions and its self-declared right to continue expanding at the cost of its neighbours. This is a “now-or-never” moment for Russia where it either succeeds in defeating Ukraine or its global ambitions are forever crushed. As previously stressed, Ukraine is after all only an abjective in a broader confrontation with the West. Additionally, Putin will find it difficult – but not impossible – to back down. His actions are at the end built on the false narratives of Russian greatness, its historical rights and grievances, and not least, the need to protect ethnic Russians under “threat”.

According to ex-President of Poland (1995-2005) Alexander Kwasniewski, it is difficult to imagine a turning point in the war when both sides will be ready to make concessions and sit down at the negotiating table.

“I don’t believe that Putin is ready to make concessions and return to the pre-February 24 situation in conditions where Russia already has its presence in the south, when he opened a corridor to Crimea and gained control over the Sea of ​​Azov and Mariupol. At the same time, I cannot imagine any Ukrainian politician who would start talking about any territorial concessions to Russia. Therefore, a peaceful solution to the problem is completely impossible today,” Kwasniewski noted. Instead, he does not rule out a “conflict freeze at a certain point,” which is not very good news.

“But if both sides, especially the Russians, admit that they have exhausted their power and forces, and need time to recover, then some truce initiative may appear. Given the depletion of resources, forces and means, it can also be accepted by the Ukrainian side. But we know what a frozen conflict is. In such conditions, it is difficult to develop or have any far-reaching plans, because today the conflict is frozen, and tomorrow it could be unfrozen. Of all the scenarios, this one seems to be the most possible one,” the ex-president of Poland stated.

He emphasized that, as of today, he sees no chance of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which would be guaranteed by the most prominent world powers.

If Russia comes out of the war victorious, it will be because the USA, the EU and NATO conceded to its aggressive foreign policy and stopped supporting Ukraine. Deterrence will have failed, while the Russian nuclear “fait accompli” strategy in contrast will have proved itself effective. A victory will, therefore, embolden Russia to continue its ongoing and broader confrontation with the West.

A potential Russian victory will, however, also be a result of a lack of resilience. As previously argued, the “tsunami of ripple effects” from the war will challenge the resistance of the West. As both winter and recession are approaching, both Europeans and Americans will be facing increasing costs of living, inflation, insecurity in food and energy supplies, disruption of maritime trade, and more. The political focus and priorities will inevitably be shaped by increasingly disgruntled electorates.

The “tsunami” will end when the war stops. The longer the war continues, the bigger the consequences and the angrier people will be. Some will lose their jobs. Some will lose their homes. All will have less, while many will become destitute and some will starve. These are some of the costs of a protracted war, without even highlighting the obvious horrific costs to Ukraine.

This is why Russia will seek to “freeze the conflict”. It supports its long-running Hybrid War against the West.

While a protracted war serves Russian interests, it runs contrary to the interests of both Europe and the USA. That’s why NATO’s present strategy on Ukraine becomes so very hard to grasp. If the Alliance has the military capabilities it claims to have to meet its level of ambitions – the number of major and small conflicts it is supposed to successfully fight simultaneously – it could end the war “tomorrow” if it so desired. Instead decided to support a protracted war.

Russia is either stopped in Ukraine, or the West will be facing decades of insecurity and instability.

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