More Ukrainians support military alliance with UK & Poland than NATO accession, poll shows

Russian military vehicles destroyed on the way to Kyiv on 27 February 2022. 

Russian Aggression

Article by: Sociological Group Rating
85% of Ukrainians support the creation of a military-political alliance of Ukraine, Poland, and Great Britain, favoring this option even more than Ukraine’s accession to NATO, supported by three-fourths of respondents, according to a poll by the Rating Sociological Group

Meanwhile, Ukrainians remain optimistic about the country’s future victory over Russia in the full-scale war against Ukraine unleashed by Russia on 24 February. More than 90% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia in the ongoing war, almost half of respondents hope that Ukraine will win in a matter of weeks. Ukrainians overwhelmingly reject signing a truce with Russia before troops are withdrawn from Ukrainian territory.

On 20 March, one of Ukraine’s major pollsters, the Sociological Group Rating, shared the findings of the fifth national poll “Ukraine During the War” conducted on 18 March. Here are the key findings of the survey.

  • The survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on 18 March 2022 shows that 77% of the respondents believe that things in Ukraine are moving in the right direction. Only 14% disagreed with this, and 10% could not make an assessment. The assessment of the direction as a positive one dominates in all the regions and among all the age groups.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • Belief in victory remains at its highest level: 93% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia’s attack. The confidence in victory prevails in all the regions of the country.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • Half (47%) of the respondents hope that Ukraine will be able to win the war with Russia over the next few weeks. A quarter (23%) believe that the war will last several months. Only 12% think that the war will end in six months or more. There are almost no people who do not believe in victory at all. 17% were not able to answer this question.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • Inflation and rising prices (45%), as well as fuel shortages (38%), are the threats that Ukrainians believe are likely to arise over the next few months. Depreciation of the hryvnia and disruption of the sowing campaign are believed to be likely by no more than a quarter of respondents, and hunger, by 13%. The residents of the eastern regions are slightly more afraid of these threats than the residents of other macro-regions.

71% of Russians feel “pride, joy, respect, hope” regarding war against Ukraine – poll

  • The vast majority of the respondents (82%) consider the threat of the country being split unlikely. This confidence has increased significantly due to the public cohesion during the war.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • According to Ukrainians, Poland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom, and the United States are the friendliest countries to Ukraine today. The Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, Turkey, France, and Slovenia are also considered friendly. About half of the respondents consider Hungary, Georgia, and Germany to be friendly countries, while a third of the respondents consider these countries neutral.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • China is now mostly considered by Ukrainians to be a neutral country. However, Russia (98%) and Belarus (84%) are seen by Ukrainians as hostile countries. Attitudes toward these countries have deteriorated significantly since they started the war against Ukraine. The attitude of Ukrainians towards China has also slightly deteriorated. Almost nothing has changed in regards to Germany, Hungary, and Georgia. The attitude to Turkey, France, Poland, Lithuania, the UK, the USA, and Romania has improved.
  • This change of attitudes has been accompanied by their regional consolidation. While previously, the attitudes of the residents of the East and South of Ukraine were more neutral towards the United States and other Western countries, now these countries are seen as friendly equally by the residents of all macro-regions. The same applies to hostile countries: Russia and Belarus are considered hostile countries by the vast majority of Ukrainians, regardless of the place of residence.
  • 74% of the respondents support Zelenskyy’s direct talks with Putin on ending the war, while a quarter of the respondents do not. There are slightly more supporters of the direct talks in the South and in the East of Ukraine, but in other regions, they comprise the majority as well.

Ukraine NATO accession

  • At the same time, signing a temporary truce with Russia without withdrawing its troops from Ukraine is viewed as unacceptable by Ukrainians (89%).
  • The support for the creation of a military and political union of Ukraine, Poland, and the United Kingdom increased from 61% in January to 85%. Today, the support for such an alliance is higher than the support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO (72%).

Ukraine NATO accession

  • 44% of the respondents believe that Ukraine should join NATO, while 42% believe that Ukraine should continue to cooperate with NATO, but should not become its member. More people support NATO cooperation outside of the Alliance than before the war, a figure that has increased at the expense of those who previously said there was no need to cooperate with NATO at all (currently it’s only 7%). Most proponents of Ukraine’s accession to NATO are in the West and Center of Ukraine. Those in the South and the East of Ukraine are more supportive of the cooperation with NATO outside of the membership.

Ukraine NATO accession

About the poll: The survey was carried out on 18 March 2022. The audience of the poll was the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of the Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative of age, sex, and type of settlement. The sample population was 1000 respondents. The survey method was CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). The error of representativeness of the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is not more than 3.1%.

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