Even though Vladimir Putin hopes that Donald Trump will end the sanctions regime against Russia, the president-elect’s proclaimed commitment to protectionism, an expansion in US production of oil and gas and a re-industrialization of America “may have the most negative consequences for the Russian economy,” according to Moscow analysts.
In today’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta, journalist Olga Solovyeva notes that the Kremlin and its closest allies are celebrating Trump’s victory because they believe, as presidential advisor Sergey Glazyev put it that “Trump as a pragmatic man will end anti-Russian sanctions which are harming American business.”
And the Moscow journalist says that Andrey Kostin of the government-owned VTB banking group fully shares that optimism and says that he excludes any possibility of unexpected “’black swans’” arising in the relationship between Russia and the United States now that Trump has been elected.
But independent analysts are less sure that Trump’s election will be only a boon for Russia. Aleksey Makarkin, the vice president of the Moscow Center for Political Technologies, says that “Trump’s victory carries with it significant risk for Russia, the full extent of which still must be considered.”
First of all, he argues,
Second, Markarkin adds,
And Andrey Koptilov of Moscow’s Synergy University adds a third:
Koptilov sees other dangers as well.
And a third Moscow analyst, Kirill Yakovenko of Moscow’s Alor Broker Company, argues that Trump’s policies will push down the price of oil and that in turn will cut the earnings of the Russian oil and gas monopolies from foreign sales “by two to three times,” on top of the losses they have already taken.
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- “Putin is a Russian Trump” and other neglected Russian stories
- Trump Revolution: From Russia With Revenge