Copyright © 2024 Euromaidanpress.com

The work of Euromaidan Press is supported by the International Renaissance Foundation

When referencing our materials, please include an active hyperlink to the Euromaidan Press material and a maximum 500-character extract of the story. To reprint anything longer, written permission must be acquired from [email protected].

Privacy and Cookie Policies.

Trump’s energy and trade policies may hurt Russia more than Western sanctions do, Moscow analysts say

Putin on Trump's victory: "In no way did we influence the elections in the USA." (Image: Sergey Elkin / Svoboda)
Putin on Trump’s victory: “In no way did we influence the elections in the USA.” (Image: Sergey Elkin / Svoboda)
Trump’s energy and trade policies may hurt Russia more than Western sanctions do, Moscow analysts say
Edited by: A. N.

Even though Vladimir Putin hopes that Donald Trump will end the sanctions regime against Russia, the president-elect’s proclaimed commitment to protectionism, an expansion in US production of oil and gas and a re-industrialization of America “may have the most negative consequences for the Russian economy,” according to Moscow analysts.

In today’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta, journalist Olga Solovyeva notes that the Kremlin and its closest allies are celebrating Trump’s victory because they believe, as presidential advisor Sergey Glazyev put it that “Trump as a pragmatic man will end anti-Russian sanctions which are harming American business.”

And the Moscow journalist says that Andrey Kostin of the government-owned VTB banking group fully shares that optimism and says that he excludes any possibility of unexpected “’black swans’” arising in the relationship between Russia and the United States now that Trump has been elected.

But independent analysts are less sure that Trump’s election will be only a boon for Russia. Aleksey Makarkin, the vice president of the Moscow Center for Political Technologies, says that “Trump’s victory carries with it significant risk for Russia, the full extent of which still must be considered.”

First of all, he argues,

“there is the risk of the destabilization of the world economy as a result of the trade wars which Trump may start” by his calls for abrogating or renegotiating trade agreements and his focus on rebuilding the American economy by among other things penalizing American firms that move abroad.

Second, Markarkin adds,

there is “the risk that oil prices will fall as a result of the lifting of limitations on drilling, a policy change American business has long sought.” If oil prices fall further as a result, the Russian economy will be hurt – and everyone must remember that it has fewer reserves than it did.

And Andrey Koptilov of Moscow’s Synergy University adds a third:

Trump’s unpredictability will rile markets and lead investors to put their funds in safe havens, thus reducing their willingness to invest in emerging markets like Russia’s. That will put yet another crimp on Russian economic development.

Koptilov sees other dangers as well.

If in December, the US Federal Reserve raises its base interest rate, that trend of capital flight from emerging markets, including Russia, will only accelerate. And if American actions hurt the Chinese economy, that will hurt Russia’s as well given Russian sales to China.

And a third Moscow analyst, Kirill Yakovenko of Moscow’s Alor Broker Company, argues that Trump’s policies will push down the price of oil and that in turn will cut the earnings of the Russian oil and gas monopolies from foreign sales “by two to three times,” on top of the losses they have already taken.


Edited by: A. N.
You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

To suggest a correction or clarification, write to us here

You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter

Please leave your suggestions or corrections here


    Euromaidan Press

    We are an independent media outlet that relies solely on advertising revenue to sustain itself. We do not endorse or promote any products or services for financial gain. Therefore, we kindly ask for your support by disabling your ad blocker. Your assistance helps us continue providing quality content. Thank you!

    Related Posts