Obviously, the 2nd Minsk Agreement was much better than the previous one. It has partially served its role and transformed the conflict from openly “hot” to frozen – suspended if you wish. Even though this is the last diplomatic attempt (all politicians acknowledge this), eventually, this agreement will not be able to stop the war. The same is also true for all other diplomatic and military attempts. In conjunction, all these methods will only lead to two scenarios: continuous war or frozen war with temporary hot phases and permanent tensions.
Of course, it is positive that the most pessimistic predictions have not taken their effect. For instance, on March 25 Deputy Minister for National Defence of Lithuania Marius Velička foresaw that the new stage of the war will begin in two-three weeks. One month has passed. The situation on the ground remains the same if not to take into account fierce battle in Shyrokyne.
But, it is apparently, that the war is not over yet and can be renewed at any time. Therefore, it seems to me interestingly to answer one important question, namely – What are the Reasons for Moscow to Continue Aggression? – in order to figure out why this war actually happened.
At first sight, it is not so obvious, but some suggestions we do have. Chris Alexander, the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada, when discussing the reasons for the war in Donbas mentioned the following: “the responsibility for the aggression belongs to Russians, who elected Putin”. Then, the reason for aggression is consequent: for Putin supporters occupation of Crimea and the war in Donbas is the “Holy War” and historical justice. This internal political support is the backbone for Putin’s regime, its atrocities and wars. “The sacred Putin makes the sacred war,” – deem nearly 85% of Russians who think that Putin is Russia.
Since, as long as Russians support Putinism, Stalinism or, generally speaking, Imperialism, the war in Ukraine, its aggressive and condescending policy towards neighbours will continue to exist. The case is even not in Putin himself, he only resembles Russian people political ideal. For us, the task is to prevent the geniture of the next politician who will have the same qualities because if we do not do this, the war will be endless.
Marek Menkiszak on Why Russians Support Vladimir Putin (The German Marshall Fund of the United Nations)