A Russian power scenario during the Belarusian elections?

Ukraine as the bogeyman

For the first time in 26 years, Alyaksandr Lukashenka is rapidly, and probably irreversibly, losing his popularity. Lukashenka’s long-standing mantra of maintaining order for the sake of order and his agrarian populism have proved ineffective against the background of an economic decline, which the World Bank predicts will be the biggest slowdown in 25 years and could reach 4% in 2020. As opinion polls are banned in Belarus, we can only gauge Lukashenka’s unpopularity and weakness by his nervous and erratic behavior: unprecedented persecution of potential candidates and activists (hundreds of Belarusians arrested or fined; open and criminal proceedings against peaceful protesters), banning international observers from the OSCE, and chaotic investigations into so-called “external interventions.” Lukashenka also believes that Ukraine has a negative influence on Belarus. He has often mentioned Ukraine as a bad example to follow. In particular, he promises not to allow “Maidan activists” and “Banderites” to wreak havoc in Belarus. Lukashenka often refers to Ukraine as a country of “chaos and disorder,” thus justifying his resistance to popular protests in Belarus and insisting on the need to maintain “law and order” according to his own rules. On the other hand, Belarusian opposition leaders see new opportunities in post-Maidan Ukraine, both for Ukrainian and Belarusian society. According to a study by the New Europe Center, they often view Ukraine as a possible role model for democratic transformations in Belarus. In fact, Belarusian opposition forces are ready to focus on Ukraine’s achievements, namely an active and engaged civil society, free media, more rights and freedoms than in Belarus, and regular transfer of state power.

Casual is trendy!

There are certain parallels between the Euromaidan events in Ukraine in 2013-2014 and the 2020 elections in Belarus, which may trigger inevitable changes in the Belarusian state. First, there’s a definite surge in civic actions and self-organization and an increase in civil society activities. What is happening now in Belarus may well precede the widespread mobilization expected in the country after August 9. Belarusians are actively self-organizing to do what the state is unable or unwilling to do, such as helping coronavirus victims and creating groups of independent election observers. Secondly, Aleksandr Lukashenka, like Viktor Yanukovych, does not realize that society has changed and is no longer ready to put up with authoritarian rule. Belarusians who support alternative candidates are united not by specific political programs, but by one slogan: “Anyone but Lukashenka!” The Belarusian presidential campaign also contains references to last year’s presidential election in Ukraine. In 2019, many Belarusians monitored the election campaign in Ukraine, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy impressed many of them with his casual and unsystematic approach. Among Lukashenka’s rivals in the upcoming elections (including those who could compete with him if he had not put them behind bars) are video blogger Siarhey Tsikhanousky, his wife Sviatlana, and former Belgazprombank chairman Viktor Babaryko. Although they have no political experience, they were able to mobilize Belarusians who do not normally vote, thus stealing part of Lukashenka’s electorate. There are also examples of direct imitations. Thus, one of the presidential candidates, Siarhey Cherechen, borrowed the popular “ZE!” campaign slogan of Zelensky’s team, calling his team “CHE!”

The Russian scenario

Despite such similarities, there are notable differences between protests in Ukraine in 2014 and Belarus in 2020. It should be noted that none of Lukashenka’s rivals question Belarus’ foreign policy. So, we should pay particular attention to the impact the Belarusian elections might have on Ukraine. To a large extent, this will depend on how large and how peaceful the protests will be after the Central Election Committee announces Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s victory, and how aggressively the Belarusian president will react to public discontent. If the protests are suppressed too harshly, the EU could extend personal sanctions against Belarusian politicians. There is reason to believe that Ukraine will join these restrictive measures, as it has done in previous years. Should this happen, the relations between Belarus and Western countries will sour and Russia will remain as the only ally of the Belarusian state. As Belarus is in dire need of external funding, only Russia will be able to provide it, but Moscow will certainly demand something in exchange, such as strengthening ties and integrating Belarus further into the Union State*, that is, partially or completely losing the possibility to approve sovereign decisions in the country. If a "Maidan" happens in Belarus and Lukashenka is removed, the country will be able to hold new, democratic elections. The main opposition leaders can take the lead and win - Siargei Tsikhanouski, Viktar Babaryka, or Valery Tsapkala. This scenario could open new opportunities for economic cooperation between Ukraine and Belarus, as these candidates advocate the liberalization of the Belarusian economy. However, none of these candidates can be called pro-Western, as they are quite satisfied with Belarus balancing between Russia and the West. In addition, Russia may not recognize the results of the Belarusian election and “come to the assistance of the Belarusian nation,” eventually putting its own people in power. Moreover, the arrest of 33 Russian mercenaries in Belarus indicates that Russia is ready to use force in the upcoming election campaign.

In particular, Russian Special Forces may provoke violence during rallies and post-election protests in an attempt to turn a peaceful protest into a bloody confrontation between the authorities and ordinary citizens. The Kremlin’s objective would be to seize power in Belarus or create a negative image of Lukashenka so that he becomes isolated by the international community and easier for Moscow to manage. This is fundamentally important for Ukraine. If the Russian power scenario works, Ukraine will find itself in a more hostile environment, with Russia threatening Ukraine from the east, north, and south. Euronews report on upcoming Belarus elections (in English, 2:45 min)

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