
(Image: krynica.info)
Lukashenka has certainly read the handwriting on the wall, even if he continues on some occasions to use the vocabulary reflecting his earlier hopes. At the same time, however, the Minsk expert says, “Belarus as before remains very important for the Kremlin because it is a unique buffer and the shortest path for a corridor to Kaliningrad,” the Russian exclave.Russia’s “aggression against Ukraine showed that Russia was ready to begin a war even with a fraternal people if this corresponded to the strategic goals of Russian elites.”
From Moscow’s point of view, “the ideal variant would be the transformation of Belarus into a completely subservient satellite which would fulfill everything that they want in the Kremlin.” Lukashenka whatever else is not going to play that role. And so the Kremlin is planning for regime change and plans to interfere in the elections to advance it.“Consequently, the Kremlin can’t allow that Belarus will pass out from under its control.”
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