Turkish Stream or Russian Stream?

The project for the Turkish Stream

The project for the Turkish Stream  

2016/10/20 • Politics

Article by: Bahadırhan Dinçaslan

“The deal is signed,” “Relations with Russia better than ever,” “Putin is so happy…”

These would be the headlines from Turkish newspapers if unnecessary words were cleaned up and actual meanings underlined. The media celebrated the deal and everyone started talking about the benefits of the “Turkish Stream” project. Some newspapers went further, they showed Crimea as part of Russia in the maps; however, after public outrage led by Crimean News Agency’s social media volunteers, they corrected this shameful mistake.

Thanks to the activists, Sabah & Hürriyet newspapers corrected their wrong maps (left) to show that Crimea is internationally recognized as Ukraine (right). Image: qha.com.ua

Well, how genuinely “Turk” is this so called Turkish Stream? Nobody in Turkey asks this question being busy celebrating the reconciliation of the relations with Russia. But, why indeed, Russia values this project so highly?

One of the main strategies of Russia is to become the sole energy supplier of Europe.

For this, Russia even signs purchasing deals with natural gas and oil supplier nations of Central Asia, making itself the hub and supply depot thanks to its proximity to Europe, and building up a monopoly. This also hinders a potential Central Asian miracle, prevents these countries from breaking Russian chains and ensures Russian hegemony.

There are Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan and Iran that also would like to sell gas and oil to Europe.

However, Russia wants no competition in this market, and the so-called Turkish Stream is the last of its projects to eradicate all competition. The Turkish Stream replaced the South Stream, a canceled project that would directly connect Bulgaria through Black Sea, bypassing Ukraine.

south-stream-map-en

Plan for the South Stream pipeline. Image: Gazprom

There exist two important energy projects that would benefit countries other than Russia:

TANAP, Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Project that would transfer Azerbaijani gas to EU through Georgia and Turkey. Although this project is expected to function by 2018, it’s likely that it will “somehow” be sabotaged by Russian interests.

tanap

Plan for the TANAP pipeline

The other project was Nabucco, although nowadays talks about it have all but ceased. Nabucco was to transfer Central Asian, Azerbaijani and especially Iranian gas to Europe via Turkey. Were it to be completed, it would restrict Russian maneuverability in this field of conflict and would boost the economies of these countries, enabling them to act freely from Russian hegemony. That would weaken the Gazprom monopoly and allow Europe to have an alternative. And this, in turn, would decrease Russian influence on European politics: it is no secret that Gazprom provides the lion’s share of Russia’s income. Were the EU to buy less Russian oil, Putin would not be so eager and reckless in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.

At the time, debates around the Nabucco project spurred massive controversies in Turkey, including conspiracy theories, debates, and a massive media attack. Businessmen with ties to Russia endorsed these controversies, going so far as to even produce a mini TV-series called “Doomsday: The Venom of Nabucco.”

Nabucco

Plan for the Nabucco pipeline

Nabucco’s recent alternative, “Turkish Stream,” benefits no player other than Russia and deactivates Ukraine, as well as further increasing the economic dependence of Turkic countries on Russia.

Besides, Turkey, the only country that was able to act freely of Russian influence in the “Turkic World” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Northern Cyprus, as well as the autonomous republics in the Russian Federation) will now bind its fate to Russia.

If you are not an energy-producing, resource-rich country, the best strategy for you would be to increase the variety and alternatives of suppliers. This prevents your energy dependency from becoming a sword raised above you, threatening you every time you come to odds with your supplier. But Turkey is pursuing the opposite: it already buys around 60% of its natural gas from Russia. This means Russia can interfere in Turkey’s domestic policy whenever it wants. Worse, 50% of Turkey’s natural gas imports are used for electricity production. This is strange even if there were no Russian threat – there exist much cheaper alternatives to produce electricity than using imported natural gas. It’s worth mentioning in this regard that the EU is another major consumer of Russian gas: 75% of Russian oil exports are sold to Europe.

In sum, this so-called Turkish Stream will strengthen Russian hegemony over Central Asia, will help Russia retain its advantage against Europe, and will function as one of the most important steps to bring Turkey totally into the Russian sphere of influence.

Ignorance is as frightening as the possible betrayal. No matter if the green light for the Turkish Stream project is caused by betrayal or mere ignorance, Turkey has to see that its independence is under threat, and focus more on projects that would serve as alternatives, such as TANAP, to break the Russian dominance.

Will it happen? We will all see.

Edited by: Alya Shandra

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  • W8post

    When I’m so sure of myself [Russia], why not dunk the pipeline in Kerch meanwhile I’m building a bridge to Crimea (which is ‘mine’)? From there I go under water to Transnistria (ALSO ‘mine’) and start there supplying Europe. The Sheriff, who already owns the petrol station there, will be more than happy to help out. On the map it looks much cheaper that way!
    OR is it, perhaps, that Russia, one day, has to give back what’s NOT theirs?? — and Moldova keeps the petrol station and Ukraine the pipe line??!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f81d7eecbb577b1c16432d0d4adb206dafdee7c660afb5e3f316c823ad01b887.jpg

  • Alex George

    Putin’s supporters in Turkey are getting excited, but far too prematurely.

    Erdogan has never agreed that South Stream will have sufficient capacity to supply Europe. It will be for Turkey’s benefit.

    Turkey has invested a great deal in the trans-Anatolian pipeline, and Turkey is still intent on growing its influence among central Asian nations like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. So it makes no sense for Turkey to actually let Russia supply gas to southern Europe.

    IN other words, Turkey will accept Russian gas for its own use, and transfer central Asian gas to Europe for sale.