Minsk Accords ‘recipe for catastrophe’ for Ukraine, Kyiv analysts say

Lukashenka, Putin, Merkel and Hollande at Minsk (Image: nr2.com.ua)

 

2016/01/30 • Analysis & Opinion, Politics

As Vladimir Putin clearly hoped, the international community having succeeded in getting the Minsk Accords is now pressing the Ukrainian government hard to fulfill them even though it has not exerted similar pressure on Russia and even though the agreements if carried out would be “a catastrophe for Ukraine,” according to Kyiv analysts.

Yesterday, participants in a Kyiv conference entitled “The Minsk Accords – A Path for the Resolution of the Conflict or a Recipe for Catastrophe” adopted a resolution as yet unpublished that says those agreements in their current form won’t solve the crisis but will harm Ukraine.

The Novy Region-2 news agency has obtained a copy of this resolution, and today Kseniya Kirillova provides a summary of its most important findings. The full text (in Ukrainian) is available here.

“Among the numerous reasons why the Minsk Accords not only are not capable of bringing the desired peace but are also a violation of the letter and the spirit of the law and also of democratic norms and principles,” she writes, “the authors of the document distinguish four main reasons” for their conclusions.

  • First, the experts say, “the Minsk accords impose on the international community and Ukrainian society the concept of a civil war in Ukraine where Russia is not the aggressor and thus a participant in the conflict but a mediator involved in its ‘resolution.’” That not only distorts history but gives the Kremlin political leverage in Kyiv.
  • Second, they continue, “the reintegration of the occupied territories” into Ukraine “with a special status (as demanded by the aggressor) has the goal of creating an obstacle for the realization of the freedom of the overwhelming majority of citizens relative to joining the EU and NATO, conserving the oligarchic system, and intensifying centrifugal processes elsewhere in the country.”
  • Third, they say, “offering special status to particular regions uncontrolled by the central authorities which also do not control part of the state border, a violation of the principle of the unitary nature of the state and also of the equality of citizens before the law, can push the country toward fragmentation and is one of the technologies of conducting hybrid war.”
  • And fourth, they point out, “the Minsk accords from a legal point of view are meaningless because they have not been ratified as international agreements are supposed to be and cannot stand above the Constitution of the state,” although that is exactly how Moscow and some in the West are interpreting them.

All these things, the declaration continues, shows that the accords “do not correspond to generally recognized approaches for the resolution of armed conflicts… because the restoration of security (a cease fire and the withdrawal of arms) and the provision of security must precede processes of the preparation and conduct of elections.”

To date, the experts say, “not one of the points of the Minsk Accords has been fulfilled.” That should have been the occasion for clearly identifying who was the aggressor rather than allowing the aggressor state to assume the mantle of a mediator. In that situation, Ukraine should reject the accords and reserve to itself the right to use all means to resolve the conflict.

Negotiations, if they take place, the Kyiv experts say, should focus “exclusively” on the following issues:

  1. The freeing of all occupied territories, including Crimea
  2. The liberation of all hostages
  3. Compensation for the losses inflicted on Ukraine “as a result of Russian aggression.”

What Kyiv should be insisting on now is the fulfillment of the Budapest Memorandum and on “the use of mechanisms anticipated by this document which not only serves the interests of Ukraine but also will reanimate trust in the system of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.”

To this end, Ukraine should call for “the establishment of a new format for the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,” one that would include the US, the EU, Canada and Russia, and should insist on the use of UN mandated procedures to define the status of occupied territories and the limits on cooperation with the occupiers and aggressors.

Related:

Edited by: A. N.

Tags: , , , , , ,

  • Volodimir

    The author is correct that the Minsk accords are technically illegal allowing for the avoidance of responsibility, transparency and accountability on the part of every stakeholder. The Minsk accords practically assure future escalation of conflict.

  • Yoshua Zafoy

    The M2A made sure that the conflict continues, which blocks Ukraine’s possibility to join the EU or NATO. The M2A is a guarantee that Ukraine will lose hope in democracy and that this will polarize and radicalize Ukraine politically in the long term.

  • Steve

    Another way to look at this is M1A and M2A were nothing more than France and Germany selling out Ukraine to go back to business with Russia as usual. And Obama isn’t far behind them with the same thought process. NONE have given defensive weapons to Ukraine and neither Great Britian nor the U.S. has upheld the Budapest Memorandum but they watch Russia violated it with impunity.

  • Daniel Goyette

    The complexity of all these discussions between “important peoples” that take such important decisions, here the faith of Ukraine, a major country, is very confusing for ordinary street-people citizens. We have a tendency to believe that smart-asses are good country managers. Over time I have observed that politicians have almost a 100% approach on decision-making processes based on the specific interests of their country and of their associates, which could also be refered as their strategic goals. Their appropriate answers are mostly based on money because our leaders are economic managers and that they are not at ease with ethics (ethics defined here as good versus bad), which has variations depending of the cultures. The public medias report these “solutions” almost in a church-minded way. Let’s take an example. If an ordinary citizen
    steals, harms, kills people or has a very corrupted life, he will most of the time be tried and sent to jail by any court of law. But politicians are a different kind of people: they have parlementarian immunity, and consequently impunity. They are above the law. A country leader and its government can build a set of laws full of loopholes that favors their misappropriation of funds, or send its armies in killing sprees, no problem. Examples are plenty today. It is the dream of the mafia come true: you can do anything, you will not be
    prosecuted. You are the law! It has become such a problem worldwide that most countries on earth are now ruled by bandits that have no limits in plundering the assets of the country they are supposed to manage. All conceivable scams used by organized crime, and even better, have become the norm. And what about the public medias that fill our TV
    set? Well they are somehow blind, I guess they are fearful people. To their defence I will say that the truth does not come out easily. I believe that governments are aware of other governments misbehaviors.
    Now the Minsk agreements (1 and 2) farce. Most medias have reported for a long time that Russia was not involved in the Ukrainian war. It is now a 100% proven fact that Putin sent his killers in Ukraine. I won’t discuss his reasons here. What is the behavior of our public
    medias with this new knowledge? Well guys you have been wrong, what do you say?
    Not much huh. And European governments making business with the bandit Putin,
    how do you react? You fear losing your gas, it seems your befriending of this asshole was not such a good idea after all. The guy does not respect your ruling conventions and I know you have been aware of this all the time. But money talks prevail. and politics, not ethics. I suggest that you mind better your relationships in the future.
    My approach concerning the resolution of the Russian aggression on Ukraine is incomplete. Nonetheless, to achieve peace and further good relationships with the Russian and Ukrainian people, whose future are at stake here, we need an appropriate solution-engine.
    First: the future of people has to prevail over the future of politicians. Politicians are expendable, the citizens are not.
    Second: the concept of parity has to apply, it is a more complex but fairer approach. What is good for you is good for me, said otherly. If one party says: give me a right in your constitution, the other party must also concede the same right in his constitution. If one party takes a part of my country, then give me a part of your country. And so on.
    Both parties need judgment. The already negociated Minsk agreements are a joke, Putin is bullying Ukrainia. And European governments living room politicians are shaking in their shorts. Consider that he takes military means to achieve his goals, that he teaches Russian citizens that the west victimize them. As far as I am concerned, Putin is a bandit, he is much worse than Assad and any respectable nation would kick him out of government and put him in a mental asylum where he belongs. He does not mind Russians, Ukrainians, and others dying as long as he perceives that he can achieve some sort of a decadent ideological goal. His megalomania will push him into a full blown war.Well, my “friend”, the past is long gone and so are the deads. You will not be able to bring any of them back. Sometimes there is no alternative to war, and if you carry on this path, Russia wuill suffer a lot and for a long time. Your similar plans in Syria will also backfire.

  • Czech Mate

    Where has the UN been the whole time?! Time to seriously reconsider its legitimacy and right for existence as a tool of common ground. This Pan Ki Mun is such a loser…

    But he sure is not alone failing miserably instead of leading.

    Ukraine should adopt one and one strategy only considering it has an enemy (Putin’s mafia) and a frenemy (spineless leaders of France, Germany and Obama).

    Play for time.

    Wait until Putin’s Russia follows Soviet Union into the cold muddy grave. It’s only a question when that will happen but there is no doubt it will.

  • Being

    Why does Ukraine obey and serve others and not to own citizens?

    Look what a bordelo mess these your “helpers, savers” have done in Europe within 1 year?
    They have taken off right of their own citizens due illegals. Crime, rape have rocketed up, yet these same people, politicians what lie to you lie to their own citizens. Lie, lie and lie.
    Loook at your status, how many dead, how many wounded, how many crippled?!

    Do Not Beleieve them!!

  • Quartermaster

    Putin’s junta can solve the problem right away. get his troops out of the Donbas and Crimea. End Russian aggression and the problem goes away immediately.
    Putin’s proxies were having their heads handed to them before Putin sent troops to support them. The aggressor is Russia.

    • Quartermaster

      We’ve been over this ground before and it has been shown you are a liar. If they’re so happy, there would be no need for the machinery of oppression that Putin has installed in Crimea. The only place Madanuts exist is in that infinite space between your filthy russian ears.

      • Quartermaster

        And, once more, you lie. No one recognizes the referendum except Russia and trolls like yourself. Everyone else is calling for Russia to get out of Ukraine.

        The propagandist here is you. You, and Putin, never had any credibility, so take your lies and go back to Russia.

        • Quartermaster

          Yeah, Banderites might be hiding under your bed too. Better check it out.

          Crimeans recognize no such thing. If they did, the referendum would not have had to be supervised by an Arny with fixed bayonets. perhaps to a Stalinist propagandist that’s a free referendum, but it isn’t to anyone else.

          Time for you lying rooskis to get completely out of Ukraine. That includes Crimea too, moron.

          • Quartermaster

            You’d better check, because if they exist, under your bed is where you will find them. They exist no where else.
            Russian terrorists burned unarmed civilians in Odessa. If the Ukrainians are so incompetent, why hasn’t Putin united Crimea with Russia? The only “militia” that was humiliated is that of the Russian terrorists who were having their heads handed to them until Russian forces intervened in 2014.
            I’m sure you can photoshop a lot of “evidence.” The only place those facts exist is in the universe you’ve created in the infinite space between your ears.
            You Russians are simply criminals. You’re brave when you can hide in your mother’s basement in Magdan and type away on keyboards, but that’s as far as it goes. Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainians, not to Russian terrorists or the Criminal regime in Moscow. Get out of Ukraine, and take your traitors with you.

          • Quartermaster

            Donbas militia “smashed” no one. they were having their heads handed to them until Putin sent the Russian Army to rescue those militias.
            You need to find an easier mark for your propaganda and lies. The facts are out in the world, and you Russian trolls won’t get anything past anyone that pays attention to what is happening in the world.

          • Quartermaster

            The plain reality is that the Donbas militias would have been crushed without Putin rescuing them. The Donbas militias are losers. And, like you, they are liars.
            You need to acquire a better command of English before you attempt to engage the same sort of humor I do. Also, having been a US Tanker, the Russian Army has no armored vehicle I need fear.

          • Quartermaster

            Perhaps in your drug fueled dreams they always win. Alas, the reason the Russian Army is in the Donbas is because the Militias were losing. Badly.

            If things were so good for the Russian supported terrorists oin the Donbas, Putin would need paid liars such as yourself to troll sites like this. The truth, which always gets out, much to your misfortune, would enough. As it is, the truth says pretty bad things about your fellow terrorists in the Donbas as well as the Russian Army.

            Anti-tank missiles are always a risk, if you aren’t careful. That’s why proper coordination of forces is necessary. There is no reason to be impressed with the Arab troops in either Iraq or Yemen. As for myself, I’m now retired and the people I left behind are among the best in the world. I have no fear for them against the likes of keyboard commandos and propagandists like yourself.