Putin has decided to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine — analyst

putlerAH  Putin

 

2015/01/19 • Analysis & Opinion

Article by: Taras Klochko

The reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry to the escalation of the situation at the Donetsk airport indicates that the Kremlin has launched a media campaign in preparation for a full-scale armed conflict with Ukraine.

Today, when it became quite clear that declarations by the terrorist warlords about gaining control of the Donetsk airport were nothing more than wishful thinking, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a statement accusing the Ukrainian side of violating the Minsk agreements, shelling civilian districts of Donetsk, and so on. There would be nothing new here except for a few details.

First, the Kremlin has announced that, according to the Minsk agreements, it appears the Ukrainian side is supposed to relinquish the Donetsk airport to the terrorists. As the Russian MFA explained:  “This issue could not be resolved for a long time because of disagreements regarding several other areas at the battle line. Meanwhile, Ukrainian security forces continued to fire from the Donetsk airport building and other residential areas and as a result civilians were killed, including women and children. Schools, residential buildings, and other civilian structures were destroyed. To stop these criminal acts, the DNR forces have taken control of the airport. However, Ukrainian troops, regardless of the civilian casualties, have launched a full-scale military operation in an attempt to recover this strategic site in order to continue shelling residential areas of Donetsk.”

Second, Russian diplomats noted that in light of recent events, Vladimir Putin has dispatched his “missive” to  Petro Poroshenko, insisting that all parties to the conflict must maintain the “regime of silence” and respect  the agreements to withdraw heavy artillery from the battle line, but that Poroshenko has rejected this “Putin peace plan.” According to the Russian MFA, “The Ukrainian security forces have rejected the proposals given to them and have renewed the artillery shelling of Donetsk, creating a direct threat to the lives of the civilians and OSCE observers.”

Meanwhile, Russian media has unleashed a new flood of lies about the “Kyiv retaliators.” Thus, the Russian information agency RIA Novosti, citing the Donetsk terrorist leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko, reported that Ukrainian aviation allegedly has been bombing Horlivka using 500-kg bombs. At the same time, Russian political analysts have been dispensing endless commentary on the pages of Russian publications that “the war in the Donbas will continue as long as Kyiv feels immune.”

This entire stream of falsehoods appears to be an informational preparation for a full-scale war with Ukraine. The Kremlin’s messages are intended primarily for ordinary Russians in order imprint the following scenes on their brains: “Kyiv, incited by its Washington master, has treacherously violated the Minsk peace agreement, ignoring all appeals for a ceasefire by the peace-loving Putin and has continued a particularly brutal and cynical operation in the Donbas, massively destroying the Russian-speaking population. In this situation, Russia simply has no other choice than to intervene in order to force Ukraine to accept peace and to rescue the people in the Donbas from the bloody revenge of the junta.”

It is quite likely that Putin will not dare launch an outright invasion. This is why the responsibility for “punishing Ukraine” will rest with the “lost paratroopers” and the “little green men” without insignia. However, there is no way that this secret war will avoid the “cargo 200” transports (Russian casualties — Ed.). Therefore, the main goal of Putin’s message is to psychologically prepare Russians to accept the caskets of their friends and relatives.

However, this new disguised Russian invasion is not the only possible scenario. The quotes from Putin’s message to Poroshenko that have been released by the Russian MFA suggest that a final decision has not yet been reached by the Kremlin dictator. Otherwise, the Russian president would hardly appeal to the OSCE promising to cooperate with international organizations in monitoring the ceasefire. “I propose that both sides — Ukrainian security forces and the Donbas militias (DNR and LNR) — take immediate steps to stop reciprocal shelling and immediately abandon the use of firearms with 100 mm or more calibers, as established by the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014,  based on the actual passage of the battle line according to the attached map… In turn, we will be ready to organize the monitoring of these steps together with the OSCE,” Putin declared.

It appears that Putin fears the consequences of another escalation after all, and is leaving himself some room for maneuver if Kyiv proves to be more compliant. However, the likelihood that these developments will occur is not very high.

Translated by: Anna Mostovych
Source: Espreso TV

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  • Brent

    Let’s get Russia’s terrorists out into open territory where they can’t hide behind citizens and shell Ukraine from residential yards and schools. Then Ukraine can unleash everything it has on them and send as many as possible back to Russia in body bags.

    BTW, if that is a recent picture of Putin, he’s looking like he’s about to hit his ‘best before- Russian average male life expectancy date’ of 64 in the very near future!!! Let’s hope he gets to ‘bring down the average’ and hit it sooner…

  • Czech Friend

    Getting real evidence of Russian troops entering Ukraine is absolutely crucial now. If Prime Minister says that two Russian battalions have entered Ukraine there should be evidence of such a big force of hundreds of soldiers.

    No doubt Russian terrorists are using maskirovka tactics but Ukraine should be able to get them on camera.

    You think it doesn’t matter because you already fight Russians head to head but IT DOES for Europe and US.

    The bastard from Kremlin is using terror tactics by threatening he will “finally” send the troops in.

    Call him on his lies once and for all, Ukraine!

    • Michel Cloarec

      There are plenty of pictures !
      But you can´t call on putin for evidences because russia/putin denies everything. The russian soldats in Ukraine are either on holydays, or of mistake over the borders.
      Even OSCE reports are ignored, but not on EU council, eftersom they voted to behold the sanctions. But of course with the propaganda , it seems that it is an European war against russia. Since the 5/9 there are never been a day of silence ! And of course it is the faults of the Ukraine Army.
      Now they are shooting at buses and hospitals, they know what they do. It is to make people in Donetsk on their side against what they call the agressors from Kiew ! It is obvious that they want all of Donbas, and they are not going to give up ! That is the sovjet world ! Putin has to hide his bad economical tactics with wars to keep russian people calm .

      • Czech Friend

        with all due respect this photo IS NOT a bulletproof evidence thus a good point for Putin’s propaganda. There needs to be clear identification of Ukraine territory, a date and of course Russian mark.

        In winter there are best conditions for “time scale” frames so that they cannot deny it was shot months ago.

        You need to create like a special ops commando which only objective would be to document Russian troops in Ukraine.

        It may sound ridiculous to Ukrainians but many in the West still wait for that definite proof of Putin the liar and war criminal.

        Such evidence will shut up his fan boys objecting harsher sanctions or even military assistance.

        • Michel Cloarec

          I know ! You are right ! But anyway they will denied !
          So the job of getting more infos is not worth it !

          • Czech Friend

            Sorry but I think it is, actually right now with many mentions of regular Russian army inside Ukraine it is absolutely pivotal!

            By presenting 100% proof of Russian troops involvement, Ukraine will call Europe’s bluff if it doesn’t get involved even after that.

        • Michel Cloarec

          1981 in Sweden ! Russian U Boat on holydays to watch the swedish girls . But it was winter, so it was fishing for seals.

  • ct

    The struggling Ukrainian people are suffering death, starvation, and poverty all because the sociopath, fascist, and Stalinist Putin can´t seem to satisfy his arrogance and submit Ukraine to soviet slavery.

    • Czech Friend

      and we in Europe are looking the other way hoping it will pass.

      No, it will get worse if we get to feed the Putler beast with our deserted friends.

      Russia must suffer for this long after Putin burns in hell.

      • RedGA

        Poroshenko needs a Winston Churchill moment. The world needs a speech detailing what this cause represents. This is not just Ukraine vs. “DNR/LNR”. There are many other components to this as well. Ukraine cannot repel this seeping of foreign fighters into the east. Even now we see Chechen Muslims pouring into Ukraine. We see videos of the airport and Muslims screaming Allah Akhbar as they fire bullets into Ukrainians. While the world stands for Charlie Hebdo we see the world turning their back on an actual invasion of Muslims into civilian areas. We see Muslims killing Christians.

        We see not locals leading this war. We see Russians leading this. Russian leaders with Russian soldiers. Putin will continue bleeding out Ukraine. This slow bleeding will continue as long as the world keeps looking away. Russia’s economy does suffer under sanctions but bleeding Ukraine works faster than Russian sanctions. The world must stand but it will take a Ukrainian leader to cry out. This is the Battle of Britain, Stalingrad, etc all rolled into one. Ukrainians around the world need to go home and protect their ancestry. Just as the Jews have returned to Israel, Ukrainians must come home even if for a short time to defend their homeland. Ukraine’s neighbors must help. Just as military experts from Russia train locals in the east, “advisors” from neighboring countries must help stop the spread of a cancer before it becomes terminal in Europe. Then and only then will the sounds of cannon and the cries of wounded Ukrainians cease.

        • Czech Friend

          I agree wholeheartedly only when I saw the scare and shock in Euroopean politicans after Putin invaded Crimea I don’t know if they are the ones to make a definite stand against him

  • dok

    If Ukraine can monitor the movements of large numbers of Russian troops(ie. by military transport or by bus), then they need to attack these vehicles with heavy artillery barrage and eliminate large numbers of russian soldiers before they even get to the battle lines. We need to start eliminating russian soldiers by the hundreds. Eventually the news of dead russian soldiers being returned to russia will have an impact on the population. We need to increase the pressure and pain on putin. That is the only thing that he understands.

    • rgb

      Remember those convoys are coming in through the terrorist controlled boarder territories. It is easier to survey those territories than to ambush in them especially with Russia firing from It’s own territory. Your idea is good though and would work if possible.