Charity concert in Estonia gathers more than 200 000 Euros in support of Ukraine

February 12 – "Normandy Four" negotiations concluded in Minsk with a disappointing result for Ukraine. Putin did not give in on a single point – there will be no withdrawal of Russian troops (they are, of course, nowhere close to Ukraine), no immediate resumption of control over the border, no reinstatement of sovereignty over occupied Crimea or Donbas. There are, however, the obligations on behalf of Ukraine to service social needs of separatists, legalize their armed gangs and hold fake elections under their watchful eye. The situation looks a lot like the surrender of Sudetenland (Czechoslovakia) to Hitler.

February 12 – Total financial assistance to Ukraine from the IMF and other organizations could amount to 40 billion dollars over 4 years, – said IMF's Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

February 12 – Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations has announced the preparations for the 14th so-called humanitarian aid convoy destined for Donbas – more weapons will be transported, no doubt.

February 12 – Russia has transferred another lot of military equipment and artillery to the territory of Ukraine, controlled by militants – approximately 50 tanks, 40 "Grad", "Uragan" and "Smerch" multiple rocket launch systems and 40 armored vehicles crossed Russian-Ukrainian border at border crossing point Izvaryne, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 12 – The transfer of the amphibious assault ship "Vladivostok" (Mistral-class) to Russia could begin as early as next week.

February 12 – EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Federica Mogherini does not expect sanctions against Russia to be discussed during the summit of EU member-states leaders to be held on Thursday.

February 12 – Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Lamberto Zannier hassaid that at present it is impossible to determine whether the militants in Donbas are also soldiers of the regular Russian army. OSCE has completely exhausted itself as a security-oriented organization.

February 12 – Agreements reached in Minsk during the meeting of the leaders of the countries of the "Normandy quartet" are absolutely weak. This was stated by the President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybaskaite, to journalists in Brussels before the EU Summit. "The fundamental part of the resolution is the control of the borders. It was not agreed upon and not resolved," she noted. "This means that the border is open for crossing by whatever soldiers and whatever artillery," remarked Grybaskaite. "This means that the resolution is totally weak," emphasized the President of Lithuania. She is also not very optimistic about the agreements on the cease-fire.

"Five months ago we already had one agreement about a cease-fire which was not implemented. Let's see what happens with this one," underlined Grybaskaite. "We will observe in the next few days how at least these partial agreements will be implemented," she added.

War is hell! (photo report from occupied Vuhlehirsk)

Russia lies... great start to Minsk agreement (Savchenko cannot be released!!)

Timothy Ash

Ukraine – deal thoughts

I guess with hindsight, a deal was always going to be done. Merkel was not going to get on a flight to Minsk, after Kyiv, Moscow, and Berlin, and not get something. And Putin needed to try and rebuild some bridges with Merkel, after seemingly upsetting her at Brisbane. Merkel is probably the honest broker in all this. She really feels for the Ukrainian position, but understands the real threat from Russia – she reads Putin better than any other Western leader, and cannot be bought. But it is Bismark-style real politik for Merkel, and she was desperate to stop the fighting – almost at any cost, which is entirely understandable. Hollande will likely get his aircraft carriers delivered, and sees all this as offering the hope of ressurection in terms of his presidency at home – a global leader, strutting the international stage and making Cameron, et al look like poodles, or rather a bulldog with no teeth. Putin gets his aircraft carriers, which will no doubt have a nice shiny berth now awaiting in Sebastopol. Putin also fended off near term threats of sanctions from the West, and can sell himself to allies in Europe (there are many) as a peacemaker – again heading off further sanctions threats. He has also not agreed to very much, as I don't think his signature is on the document, so if it fails (and it likely will) he can blame others. He has also headed off the threat of the US arming Ukraine – and therein he is in cahoots with Obama himself, who will see this deal as being useful in fending off calls from the DC consensus (including within his own administration) now to arm Ukraine – and can return to his own "splendid isolation" or "strategic patience" as it is now called stateside. That's a nice term for doing as little as possible. Poroshenko gets his IMF programme, and can try and roll out reforms attached to this to try and assure the supporters of Maydan that this team is really the Real Deal in terms of the reforms they so desire. Note the IMF press release was timed for 10am, just as news of the Minsk deal broke – so my sense is that someone was telling the Ukrainians that an IMF deal was contingent on a Minsk ceasefire deal. No ceasefire – no IMF deal. And the IMF gets to roll out its new programme, which it has been working on for months. Poroshenko probably also thinks that the ceasefire will buy time for Ukraine to regroup, rearm against the clear and present danger of further Russian intervention. But will it all stick/last? I just do not think so, as I still fail to see from this deal what is different to Minsk I in terms of delivery on Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine. Minsk I clearly did not deliver for Russia, hence that ceasefire did not last long, so let's see what is really different this time around. The issues of real autonomy/federalism, and border control don't appear to be properly addressed in this document. Constitutional reform towards the Russian agenda will be impossible for Poroshenko to deliver. And finally and fundamentally why I do not think that the status quo is sustainable – one year ago Russia felt the need to annex Crimea, and intervene in eastern Ukraine. But one year ago Ukraine was no threat to Russia as a) it was non aligned; b) popular support for Nato membership was low single digits, and there was little support in parliament or amongst political elites to drive Ukraine NATO membership. C) the west really did not want Ukraine in NATO as they saw this as a red rag to the Russian bull, and as events have proved could not defend Ukraine under NATO's TOR; c) the Ukrainian military had limited fighting capability as was proven in the early days of the conflict, but subsequently changed; d) the govt in Kyiv was weak and disarray and the Ukrainian economy on the brink of collapse; e) and as events have proven Russia had de facto control of Crimea via the stationing of 26,000 troops and the long term BSF agreement. And f) and finally Ukrainians were not anti-russian or even particularly anti-Putin. If Moscow was not a real threat a year ago, but Moscow felt compelled to intervene, look at the risk from a Russian perspective now from Ukraine – a) Ukraine is no longer non aligned. B) it now wants to join NATO and opinion polls now show majority support for this. C) Ukraine is rebuilding military capability and the military doctrine is now against the threat from Russia; d) Ukraine has a reform admin in Kyiv, which has a real chance of succeeding now with imf support. It can offer a rival and successful model of development to Putin's power vertical and sovereign democracy. E) Opinion polls show strong ukrainian opposition/distaste for the Putin regime. So, net-net the above still suggests the risk of further future Russian intervention in Ukraine.

P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.

Maidan Community Sector, Lviv: Dear friends!

January 2 – One Ukrainian military was killed and 5 were wounded in the ATO are in the last 24 hours, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

January 2 – Russian terrorists have carried out 16 provocative shooting attacks on Ukrainian military positions, – informs ATO press center. By using small arms, rocket launchers and mortars, the terrorists fired at Donetsk airport (during the night), and by using small arms only – are near Chornukhyne village. The villages/towns of Stryi Aydar, Zolote, Popasna, Vuhlehirsk, Chermalyk have also suffered the effects of mortar attacks.

January 2 – The enemy began to group its battle formations and is relocating them closer to advanced positions of Ukrainian troops in the ATO area, – informs "Information Resistance" group.

January 2 – 2 new enemy formations, which include up to 200 people and 6 armored vehicles, have been recorded near the city of Volnovakha.

January 2 – Aamphibious self-propelled howitzer 2S1 "Gvozdika" has been recorded south of Starobeshevo (4 "Gvozdika" howitzers and several KAMAZ trucks with ammunition).

January 2 – Close to the town of Tryokhizbenka the terrorists have again started to practice "wandering tanks" tactics (they are using these tactics near Donetsk airport as well). Tank crew mostly consists of regular military of Russian Federation.

January 2 – The enemy has relocated an artillery group to its first line near the town of Granitne.

January 2 – Among the terrorists killed during an attack in the village of Pisky (close to Donetsk airport) 4 marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were identified, – informs "Information Resistance" group.

January 2 – Pro-Russian terrorists of the so-called "DNR" are mobilizing underage children into their gangs. This was announced by ATO spokesman Andriy Lysenko during the traditional Friday briefing: "According to the reconnaisance, with the goal of completing the evident gang formations, which the leadership of the so-called "DNR" is carrying out on the occuppied territories of the so-called "volunteer" mobilization of the local residents between the age of 16-18," he said.

Lysenko reminded that the involvement of under-age children in participating in the army actions and army services is a deep violation of the International Humanitarian Legal Law, especially Article 38 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Children.

Janaury 1 – In 2014 Russia established a series of anti-records. The gross national product of Russia, as of November 2014, for the first time since 2009 went into a minus level, the decrease constituted 0.5%.

This is not the only anti-record of the year – on December 15th, the exchange rate of a ruble to he dollar of the year had n a few hours decreased more than 8.5%. Until that moment the Russian money from the beginningof the year had devalued almost twice the amount.

The devaluation of the Russian ruble was preceeded by the lowering of gas prices throughout five months – due to the strengthening of the sanctions by EU and USA and Russian "anti-sanctions".

The decisions of the countries of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to not decrease the quota of procuring gas, deteriorated the situation. After that the price for raw materials decreased, speeeding up the loss of capital from Russia and the inflation of the ruble.

The devaluation of the Russian ruble was preceeded by the lowering of gas prices throughout five months – due to the strengthening of the sanctions by EU and USA and Russian "anti-sanctions".

The decisions of the countries of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to not decrease the quota of procuring gas, deteriorated the situation. After that the price for raw materials decreased, speeeding up the loss of capital from Russia and the inflation of the ruble.

The gold currency reserves of Russia continued to decrease, while the rating of support for Putin's actions, increased. This year the ministry of the Economic Development of Russia examined the official prognosis about the inflation of the ruble three times. The beginning prognosis to the end of the year was increased almost twice – from 4.8% to 9%. Realistically, as the Russian Minister of Finances Anton Syluanov stated on December 25th, "according to the year's summary, most probably the inflation will quickly rise to 11.5%, and possibly even somewhat higher."

Sanctions Intensify Russia's Free Fall Into Economic Crisis

Russian economist Sergei Guriev, who teaches at Sciences Po in Paris, says Moscow can't keep spending down its reserves forever.

More on Putin's lies and propaganda machine in the West

P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.