Russian army won’t be ready to intervene in Ukraine before mid-July

Russian soldier green men


Military analysis

The Russian military was ready to invade Ukraine in April but stopped short of doing so, Pavel Felgenhauer, a leading independent military analyst in Moscow, says. Now it is not and probably won’t be until the middle of July at the earliest “regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

Felgenhauer’s comments came in the course of a wide-ranging interview on Ekho Moskvy in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s decision to ask the Russian parliament to rescind its authorization for the use of force in Ukraine about where Moscow is now and what it is likely to do next.

Felgenhauer began by suggesting that what is taking place in Ukraine and Russia resembles strategically “a matryoshka doll,” in which various layers are involved. “There are the separatists” who “in a military sense” are weaker than Kyiv and have lost to the Kyiv regime.” If no one else were involved, Ukraine would “liquidate them” in a month or two.

“But the Ukrainian forces are weaker than the Russian forces,” the independent Russian military analyst continues, and “Russia is weaker than the united West.” As a result, what is taking place is “a very complicated game” within and among these various levels.

Russia’s “strategic goal” is “now perfectly obvious: to transform what is taking place in Donetsk and Luhansk into a frozen conflict like Abkhazia or Transdniestria” by establishing a ceasefire, involving peacekeepers and observers, and thus “stabilizing the situation as it now exists.”

Such an outcome would give Moscow enormous advantages because it would leave it with “a serious lever” on Kyiv for a long time to come.

But getting to that point is “very complicated,” Felgenhauer continued, not least of all because Kyiv and the West understand what Putin is trying to do and why. Kyiv doesn’t want to provoke Moscow, but it doesn’t want Moscow to succeed either. And the West is in much the same position.

Putin’s request that the Russian parliament rescind its authorization for the use of force is part and parcel of this game, he said. Kyiv wanted this as a confidence building measure, even though everyone knows that the Federation Council’s approval is unnecessary – Putin didn’t get it for Georgia in August 2008 – or can be secured instantly whenever he asks for it.

But at the same time, the analyst said, “right now Russia is not prepared for any serious actions in Ukraine. We were ready in April, and at the end of April in essence moved forward. Then we stopped.” Felgenhauer added that he did “not know why” the order to invade did not come at that time.
When it didn’t, “demobilization took place.” Draftees were sent home, tactical battalions were shifted. “Now several of them have returned but,” he said he “thinks” that “before the middle of July or the end of the world soccer championship final Putin plans to attend there will not be any sharp actions” regardless of what takes place on the ground in Ukraine.

“The second half of July and August are the times of some risk, depending of course on how the situation in Ukraine will develop,” Felgenhauer said, although he added that “in Moscow, of course, they would like to get through this peacefully” by “freezing the situation and retaining the leverage it would give the Kremlin on Kyiv.

Securing the necessary agreements, however, may not happen because the Ukrainian military is gaining in strength. It is integrating its various elements, identifying and appointing better commanders, and elaborating better strategy and tactics, he suggested. If Russia weren’t continuing to supply the secessionists, Kyiv would win.

But Moscow “will not agree to closing” the border or stopping the flow of arms and personnel from the Russian side, Felgenhauer said. To do so would be to give up on its frozen conflict strategy, one that has worked well for some time elsewhere. This time may be different, however.

The Ukrainian side, the Moscow analyst continued, also views a ceasefire as important “because [Kyiv and its forces] are becoming stronger.” Time is thus on Ukraine’s side, although the time it needs to “put its house in order” may be longer than it has, especially given that Moscow shows every sign of continuing to interfere.

Since you’re here – we have a favor to ask. Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine is ongoing, but major news agencies have gone away. But we’re here to stay, and will keep on providing quality, independent, open-access information on Ukrainian reforms, Russia’s hybrid war, human rights violations, political prisoners, Ukrainian history, and more. We are a non-profit, don’t have any political sponsors, and never will. If you like what you see, please help keep us online with a donation!

Tags: ,

  • Kruton

    Poroshenko must concentrate all available resources on the Ukrainian military.If possible cruise missiles must be built or acquired.

    • Case Triskell

      Very good idea, but oligarchs should contribute. CM,s are very, very expensive.

      • Kruton

        About a million a piece,but the Russians will have a heart attack.

    • MacFly1

      Haha, clueless!

    • Raymond Dillon

      Really, Does Ukraine really thinks that it can or ever will be a military match for Russia, cruise missile or no cruise missile? Wow ! How delusional?
      And yes the little fascist junta will be brought down one way or another, maybe just after right sector assasinate poroshenko.
      Russia doesnt have to do anything , the junta will collapse under it’s own weight of corruption ,greed and murder, they always do.

      • Kruton

        If Iraq had cruise missiles the US would never have attacked them. Dispute what I just wrote!

      • Kruton

        Argentina had just a few of them and destroyed modern British warships,google it.

        • Milton Devonair

          What the russian baboons are doing is using russian/chechens to blend with the population and use them as human shields…when they’re not looting, raping, kidnapping…ya know, doing what russians do.

          This is where a large army with mech would be nice as they could burn a route behind the terrorists and seal the border behind them, their escape route to the russian cesspool.

          Then exterminate them as the rats they are.

  • sandy miller

    Keep the Russians busy by sending a cruise missile to the Kremlin.

    • MacFly1

      The cruise missile is two generations behind Russian hyper-sonic missiles. If you to to fight a war, you have to know yourself says Sun Tzu.

    • Milton Devonair

      The russian military is and always has been stocked with pretty much baboons. That’s why they can only fight against civilians and unarmed people. Even their primate leaders know that the Ukrainian people would make them pay dearly for attempting to murder millions of them and steal their country….again.

      The corrupt cesspool called ‘russia’ may not even be able to maintain itself, but we’ll wait and see as putin the pig is continuing to clamp down in information and freedom of the prisoners–i mean citizens–of russia. Eventually even ignorant russians may wake up to see they’re just another version of mexicans, living in a country like mexico where the two biggest exports are gas and the youth of that country.

  • Milton Devonair

    A responsible government should start asking for arms contributions from other countries and then set up training camps in every oblast, training and arming the Ukrainians.
    Have secondary stockpiles of anti-air/armor weaponry staged throughout the country also.

    Humans have learned that the russians don’t understand “no thanks” or “no”.
    Historically and right up to this minute, they only understand and respect on thing–strength.

    • MacFly1

      you mean the “responsible” puppets to the U.S.A. Federal Reserve?

      • Walter Salmaniw

        Go home you silly troll. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

      • Milton Devonair

        lol, mcclown. That’s why the Ukrainian army is having trouble with fuel and munitions supplies, food, medical supplies, etc.

        Are you a paid putin-gandist or just some fat smelly conspiracy type in your mom’s basement?

  • MacFly1

    Is not important to invade Ukraine, only as a left flank of our invasion of NATO. Soon all will bow to Mother Russia!

    • Walter Salmaniw

      In your dreams. You sound a lot like Krushchev, pounding his shoe on the podium. No one believed him then, and no one believes you now.

  • Metro

    So many pro USA trolls on here

  • Metro

    Brain dead Ukrainians your ountry was taken over by the USA / IMF with a bunch of cookies..HaHa BAA BAA

    • Kruton

      Yea everybody wants to be taken over by Chechens,we all dream about it !

      • Metro

        Yea what’s worse than Chechens? what your getting now goose.
        From the frying pan into the fire.

      • Milton Devonair

        metro seems to be one of those basement dwellers that hang listen to alex jones and wraps his head in tin foil to prevent “them” from further controlling his mind, suffering the oppression in his basement.

        Meanwhile, russians and chechens have invaded yet another country and are kidnapping, raping, looting, torturing people and he sees what’s going on in his basement as just the same thing.

        Weird, huh?

        • David Grace

          I comment once in awhile, You just keep on babbling
          get off the net , maybe get a job , or maybe join the Neo
          Nazis in Kiev,I am sure they would welcome you

          • Milton Devonair

            “I comment once in awhile”….and every time you do, you make a fool of yourself.
            Like this commrade, “join the Neo Nazis in Kiev”

            Ignorant enough to be truly russian, but I guess there are tiny portions of the human population that have demonstrated a level of ignorance on par with the russians….

    • Milton Devonair

      Yet another putin-gandist. I hope you’re getting your 12,000 rubles because if you’re lapping up the milk of putin voluntarily, you should be embarrassed. Well, a human would be embarrassed…a russian, probably not as primates aren’t that high order to be aware of such things.

      • Metro

        I’m a westerner troll, even I know what my government is doing, you obviously prefer the degenerate murdering USA gov…perfect example of a sheep you are

        • Milton Devonair

          Basement Dweller, you mean “I’m a western putin-gandist troll”.
          Here’s the ad–you don’t have to be a russian to be a useful idiot of neo-soviet putin. You’re just paranoid enough to do it for free as you are hiding in your basement in the mean ol usa, cowering in the oppression here……

          “I need 5 people,” the ad says.
          “Each of them will leave 70 comments a day from 50 different
          accounts (the accounts need to be live). Urgently.
          The job is 5 days a week. The duration of this project is 3 months. The payment is every 10 days (Webmoney, Yandex Money [methods of payment – GV]). Total: 12,000 rubles [around $400-G.V.] a month.

          The task is to create the maximum believable wave of comments to degrade the rating of the journal’s author and to form a negative attitude toward him. You need to comment each new post correctly and persuasively. It is also important to create a positive image of “United Russia” party [the ruling party in Russia].

          Can you do it?

  • Melvin Bennett

    Hard to play Chess when the pieces are controlled by various behind the scenes forces. Normally we’d side with Ukraine but we know the Globalist/Banksters want more control of Russia. Ukraine is a bad position regardless. Debt slaves to the Banksters or subservient to Russia ?

    • Milton Devonair

      lol…Ukraine is so bad off because it was so bad off due to the putin-puppets running it. It had nothing to do with bankers/jews, but for some reason, basement dwellers fantasize about that BS and paid putin-gandists promote that idea.

      That way, russia can rape another country.
      Chechnya (putin).
      Georgia (putin).
      Crimea (putin)
      Ukraine (putin)

      seems like the little ratboy putin is the problem, no matter what your little mind says.

  • Metro

    Milton Devonair.. you should go crawl back to the infested hole you were born from. Sit down before you hurt yourself sheep

    • Milton Devonair

      I love it how you isolated basement dwellers just love to call other people not in your basement ‘sheep’. Have you checked in your toilet? You do know “they” have a surveillance tool in there and it reads your thoughts……..

  • gerry d welder .

    6 hours ago … Lord Stirling’s News Blog EUROPE.

  • gerry d welder

    Cluster bomb from Junta forces found in Donetsk region unexploded ~ ~ The Globalist/Zionist/Fascists forces know no moral boundaries it appears! Stirling


    • Milton Devonair

      I was wondering when this spamming basement dweller would show up, blaming the jews/bankers for all that goes on in the world inside his head.

      Do you own stock in tin foil?

  • gerry d welder

    Ukraine Junta’s forces resume heavy shelling of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region ~ ~ When all of this is over, the criminals that comprise the Coup Junta should be properly tried for War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity, convicted and HUNG. Stirling

  • chrisalien

    Milton Devonaire
    You really appear to be an obnoxious person with an affliction for basements.
    This whole mess is one of the US state department and Kiev is increasingly being taken over by “English” speaking military “advisors”, thats what Anonymous announced recently.
    In other words this is all a US/Nato play and they are the aggressors.
    So for you US/NATO trolls I hope karma runs over your dogma.