In this posting I will try to keep an open mind and to adequately explain what is going on in Ukraine. The posting is intended mainly for my Russian friends and people wishing to get the mots impersonal and objective picture of what is happening in Ukraine.
How it all started
There was Yanukovych and his insatiable family, who were robbing Ukraine in a way that had not been done since the times of Batu Khan. Even allowing for artistic exaggeration, the exaggeration couldn’t be too great. The scope of plunder was so high that Ukrainians could not endure one more year until the presidential election was scheduled, and rebelled against Yanukovych earlier. This was a people’s uprising against the tyrant, who forgot abouy limits and there is nothing more to it. It is true that the world’s major players and Ukrainian oligarchs are behind this rebellion; they will try to use it to their advantage, anyway they are players and it is not surprising; however, whoever thinks Maidan gathered for money is an idiot and these people should not read this post; it is a waste of time for them.
Maidan and Euromaidan
Maidan “For Europe” ceased existing on November 30. Everything that happened afterwards has not been “for Europe” or “for gay marriages” – it has been a rebellion against a tyrant who was a real pain in the neck with his greed and stupidity. Therefore, those who are continuing to post campaign letters against the European Union – give it a rest. Ukraine knows better what Europe is worth.
Logic driving the people who gathered at Euromaidan
The logic was simple. Yanukovych is a complete asshole, but let him sign an agreement with Europe. A year later we will not reelect him, but the treaty will already be working.
After the bloody and unprecedentedly cruel break-up of Euromaidan on November 30, where mostly European-minded students gathered, another Maidan gathered, where adult men and women came with the specific intent of throwing Yanukovych out for his outrageous and lawless actions.
This is what is on the surface and what can be easily verified; now let us turn to what is behind the scenes.
U.S. and EU
During protests the U.S. and EU did everything they could to keep Yanukovych President of Ukraine until 2015. It was them who through Ukrainian opposition strongly constrained Maidan from radical action, from storming the President’s office and his residence in Mezhyhyria.
Why didn’t they want Yanukovych’s resignation? It was mainly because they were afraid of the revolutionary chaos. It is also likely that there were some secret agreements with Putin. And yet, Western politicians did not want to take responsibility for the new Ukrainian authorities. Yes, oddly enough, there are still politicians in the world who are afraid of responsibility.
The game around Ukraine had two 2 card-sharpers: Yanukovych, who as he believed was the most cunning card-sharp, and Putin, who pretended he believed Yanukovych was the most cunning card-sharp.
Putin was playing for Yanukovych. He was playing for him not of great love; however, there is no one else in Ukraine willing to play for Putin. It is true that Yanukovych is a very expensive political whore, but Putin had no one to choose from. Putin has no other partners in Ukraine.
And it is all because wily urka (eng: criminal) Yanukovych – to make it clear what kind of a character we are speaking about I can only say that two of his legendary prison terms are the absolute truth and his nickname in the prison camp was Kham (Savage) – this ‘urka’ Yanukovych sent Vladimir’s main sparring partner to prison. The partner’s name – or rather a woman partner’s name – is Yulia. Yanukovych isolated Yulia and in such a simple way he became the only person with whom Putin could conduct his shady gas – and not only gas – dealings in Ukraine.
In December 2013 in the midst of the protests that were already sweeping away his power, Putin promised Yanukovych an unprecedented loan of $ 15 billion. To understand the importance of the moment, imagine that Putin gave a scoundrel who is as crooked as a dog’s hind leg 15 milliYARDS of spinage!!!!
The only thing Yanukovych had to do in exchange for the loan was to drive away Maidan and join the Customs Union. When it comes to driving away or breaking up the demonstration, it is hundreds if not thousands of deaths. Still, after Beslan, Putin was unlikely to be somehow embarrassed by it. FSB specialists hastily arrived in Kyiv and preparations to break up Maidan started.
On January 16, 2014, FSB specialists pushed through the Ukrainian parliament the laws, which almost exactly copied those adopted in Russia. A ban on public rallies and demonstrations, criminal responsibility for attempts to overthrow the government, and the rest of it in the same vein.
But again, Moscow luminaries did not take into account that Ukrainians are not Russians. And already on January 19 Ukrainians showed Moscow KGB servicemen a master class on Hrushevskoho Street. Russians did nothing about the adoption of laws that restricted their rights, while Ukrainians responded with Molotov cocktails at Hrushevskoho St. and seized the regional administration buildings
For the sake of truth it must be said that Moscow KGB servicemen operated in conjunction with Donetsk bandits, who are the true owners of the Party of Regions. Bandits is the literal term and not just the author’s opinion.
The future course of events is known to everyone – bloody confrontation at Maidan on February 19 and Yanukovych’s escape.
On the Victory of Maidan
It is extremely inappropriate to consider Yanukovych’s escape and his replacement with Klitschko/ Yatsenuk / Tymoshenko as Maidan’s victory. Maidan did not stand up for changing those at the feeding trough. The main objective of Maidan was an authentic – not sham – revolution .
Globally, I would formulate the aim of Maidan as follows:
It is the state that serves the people, not the people that serve the state.
Many people are now wondering what’s got into Putin – “what fly has stung him” – and why he launched a military adventure in the Crimea. I will not comment on a version of the Nazis and Banderists who will come and kill all Russians in Crimea. This is a complete nonsense, and I am writing this posting for people who are quite right in the head and do not believe in such lies.
So what does Mr. Putin want?
I’ll start with a small digression. Putin is a typical paranoid. It is quite correct to compare him with Hitler. I think Putin even sees this comparison as somewhat flattering one. When comparing Putin and Hitler, there are a few important details. The Russian Empire was created and made an empire by Germans. In this empire Russians were slaves. There is an opinion that they remain in the same position today, but it is a separate issue. Putin is a typical product of communism. There is no significant difference between Nazism and communism – the essence and nature are the same. German Nazism is in the past, and Russian communism still alive and kicking. All statements by Putin’s propagandists are pure plagiarism of Nazi speeches. Posting by youngsters stoned by Putin’s propaganda are not much different from what was said by German teenagers during the Nazi era. German suckers cursed Englishmen, while Putin suckers curse Americans. Everything is primitive and uninteresting, and there is even no will to argue with them, so we will return to the hero of dreams of virgin Alina (note: Alina Kabaeva).
Thus, what Putin wants:
to prevent the emergence of Maidan in Russia
to destroy Ukraine
If Putin is able to solve these problems, he gets 2 more super bonuses:
He will continue to enjoy his absolute power for another 10 years
He will return Crimea to Russia and become a national hero for many decades, and perhaps centuries. Due to the catastrophic shortage of real heroes in Russia I do not rule out the option that it can be even millennia, but it is not so important now.
As you can see, to solve these problems he needs to put Ukraine on her knees. And he must act immediately.
Why Putin must hurry
The West announced it would grant Ukraine a huge financial support. We are speaking about the sum around $ 40 billion. If Ukraine receives the money the West will preclude Putin not only from sending troops here, but also from even talking loudly “in the direction of” Ukraine. Nobody will allow him tear apart an entity that owes a large amount of money.
There are no pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. The only exception is Crimea. And as soon as the revolutionary government is completely legitimate after the elections and takes control of the situation, it will be pointless to send troops. It will be blunt aggression of the bull, and keeping the first bullet point in mind, aggression of an inadequate bull.
Putin’s task number one is to unleash a civil war in Ukraine.
The action plan is as easy as pie. There is nothing new about it. Here is everything that Hitler and the Soviet Union used in Finland, in the Sudetenland, in Austria, in the Baltic States, in Poland, and in Afghanistan.
Why Putin needs a civil war in Ukraine:
To demonstrate what Maidan and Revolution leads to;
To demonstrate that Ukrainians can not manage their own country, so that the West washed its hands of it and turned a blind eye to an operation similar to the one in Chechnya;
To bring the situation to the pivotal point, when the people of Ukraine will ask for his military assistance themselves. To put it simply, they would keep killing until people ask their own killers for protection.
Here’s a simple, unpretentious scheme in a typical KGB style. Everything is like it was taught in KGB school. We are unleashing a war and beginning to loudly and noisily fight for peace.
This is not a direct military intervention. If they were going to start an invasion they would not hide their faces and would not remove the chevrons. The task is different, that is, to provoke a civil war in Ukraine.
At its first stage the plan did not work. The reason is that Ukrainians simply did not want to kill each other for such a schmuck as Yanukovych is. Ukrainians have different opinions about Maidan, but they all equally hate Yanukovych. Both in the East and in the West of Ukraine. In eastern Ukraine Yanukovych still has voters who believe him. But nobody wants to go to war because of such filth as Yanukovych. Even Berkut, dishonored in full, despises him.
In which way Maidan is a threat for Putin
To answer this question you need to understand what Ukrainian Maidan is.
It is incorrect to assume that Maidan is a place in Kyiv where people disgruntled at authorities gather. Putin is not scared by Maidan as a gathering place of those disgruntled. He fears Maidan as an information virus. Maidan which is in the minds of people. Once people realize that any power can be bent over if you don’t like it, there will be the end of Putin. And not only Putin, but the whole “Putin” system in Russia in general.
We should not delude ourselves by saying that not the whole nation is standing at Maidan. Do not be fooled by these cheap information tricks. Maidan is so scary for Putin and his clique because even when 1 percent of people go out into the streets then the entire system of government can be ruined. Not just Putin – KGB will find a replacement for him, he is no messiah – but the SYSTEM. The system which is bringing them an enormous corruption rent in Russia.
What we have in Ukraine today
Local pro Russia patriots are a mindless flock of sheep with sticky fingers, incapable of even devising decent provocation. During the 20 years of generous multi-million funding by the Kremlin they have not been able to organize even one squad of stormtroopers. Putin had to shamefully disguise his paratroopers and declare them Crimean troops of self-defense.
If Putin really annexed Crimea, the first thing I would do in his place would be drowning the entire leadership of Crimea and the Black Sea fleet in the sea. Each and all. When Ukraine had a strong government, these nobodies were sitting silently in their burrows, and these rats started worrying and running around only when allowed by rat-bosses. In general, if Putin does not drown them, it is thumbs down for Crimea. Except stealing, this company can not do anything more.
The military of Ukraine did not repeat Saakashvili’s mistakes and did not immediately respond with a military strike to aggression. Instead of fire, the new Ukrainian government declared itself the victim and for 4 days already the whole world has been watching Russian fighters arranging clowning in Crimea, and Putin looks like an idiot to the whole world. Three countries (USA, Canada and the UK) have already withdrawn their ambassadors from Russia!
As a result, disguised Russian commandos have been rushing back and forth in Crimea for four days and seem to be going nuts themselves from such a schizoid war. It is not unlikely that these guys will soon get themselves drunk and start shooting at those who have drawn them into this idiotic adventure.
Ostensibly pro-Russia South-East
In Russia, many people believe that the South-East of Ukraine is dreaming of being a part of Russia. I was born in Luhansk myself; therefore, I have enough information to speak to the point and not to promote my personal opinion.
The South-East of Ukraine has formed very powerful FPGs who are satisfied with everything in Ukraine and who want no Russia and moreover no Putin.
They will not join Russia – not for its Russian language, or birches, balalaikas or St. George ribbons. Even if Putin gives them free gas they will refuse to join. If they are offered a choice of living either with Banderists or with Putin, they will choose Banderists.
The main reason for which the South East of Ukraine will not join Russia:
– In Ukraine, the highest ranks in Ukrainian Southeast are full overlords, “masters of life”. In Russia, the KGB servicemen are “masters of life”. And none of the Ukrainian oligarchs will ever wish – being of sound mind and memory – to go into submission to Putin, Sechin, Surkov or anyone else. In Ukraine, the oligarchs appoint presidents, MPs and ministers. And they will never join any Russia. Because in Ukraine they are everything, and in Russia they will be Putin’s servants.
Since the elite and the residents of South-East had no one wishing to start a civil war to join Russia, Moscow KGB servicemen – Cheka – had to bring these “willing people” from Russia. Mercenary brigades amounting to about 2 thousand people arrived in Luhansk and Kharkiv; it was them who staged riots and provocations, as well as assaults of regional administrations. In Kharkiv, these thugs murdered two people.
Militia (the police) is inactive because after Maidan they are generally afraid to enter political scrum. Also, a part of the policemen directly serve the FSB.
Saying this I consider the topic of Southeast of Ukraine closed . Yes, there are people there who want to join Russia. But wanting and being able to are different things. We’re talking about those who are able to.
If Putin wants to annex this area to Russia – there is only one way, a military invasion. There is no support among the people there and there will never be.
The rest of Ukraine
The rest of Ukraine is staying mildly speaking in a state of shock because of Putin’s actions. The question of joining the Customs Union is closed once and for all. The issue of becoming a NATO member is resolved. The question of introducing visas and establish real, not fake border with Russia is resolved.
And what is more important, the question of civilizational choice of Ukraine is closed. And all this has been done after a few days of Putin’s manoeuvres in Crimea. Putin should be given the title of Hero of Ukraine. In just a few days he has accomplished what all Ukrainian politicians put together failed to accomplish during the 20 years of a new era of Ukrainian independence. Putin has united Ukraine. He has united it against Russia and in favor of his deadly rivals from Europe and the U.S., but he did unite it. I wonder who this guy is working for?
Implications for Ukraine
At present very many people in Ukraine are outraged at Putin’s insidiousness and cruelty. I am also outraged. Putin is a scoundrel and a criminal. But I would like to talk about something else.
I would like to say that it is Ukraine who is to blame for what happened . The elite and the people are to blame. They are to blame for the fact that within 20 years they have failed to care about their country; they have failed to create a decent army, decent police, honest courts, and have failed to elect smart parliament, even though there have been enough elections and there have been a lot people to choose from.
If Ukraine is a successful country it should not fear any separatism. One can carry out at least a hundred referendums in every region and people will say no to separatism.
Putin can not invade Poland, the Czech Republic, or Lithuania. But for some reason, Putin can invade Ukraine. One can only invade the living space of a weakling. And aggressors of the Putin type know it.
Conclusions that can be drawn from these events are obvious to me – we need to create a decent country. Our enemies are our teachers. Putin has shown to all Ukrainians what might happen if, instead of creating a strong state and a strong nation we will faff around – playing games with the devil. And Putin is a servant of the devil.
All tricks with him should be stopped once and for all. The gas should cost as much as it costs. It should be bought and sold according to a simple and transparent scheme. Ideally, the price of gas should be tied to the price of oil. Then there will be no “corruption games” around the gas. In fact, there are none of these around Russian oil supplies to Ukraine. If it is expensive to buy gas in Russia buy Gazprom from Russia.
Ukraine should stop hesitating between Europe and Asia. It should join NATO and first become an associate member of the European Union. I really hope that the new generation of Ukrainian politicians will understand and implement these simple truths .
Another scenario of the War for Crimea
Now everyone is comparing events in Crimea with the 1938-3’s and Hitler’s annexations. I would invite you, my friends, to compare the situation in Crimea with other, more joyful scenarios.
Nowadays very many people are comparing Putin to Hitler and there is something – rational kernel – in this comparison, but I suggest that we compare him to Saddam Hussein. With Hussein of 1991. Below are my thoughts on this subject.
There are all signs that Putin will not leave Crimea. Even under heavy international pressure and sanctions. His character and nature won’t let him do it; moreover, he can not leave. “Moscow is behind us” and it (Moscow) won’t understand or forgive. Because it “does not believe in tears”, because the economic situation is bad , because it only loves winners. There are many reasons why Putin got into this adventure and why he can not retreat; I think that there are some reasons which no one but Putin knows.
How can the situation evolve if Putin does not leave on a good note? In this case, the events can develop along two scenarios. Scenario one: Putin will restrict himself to Crimea; scenario two: Putin will move further. His goal is all the South-East of Ukraine, advance on Transdniester and as a super prize for the whole adventure – Kiev. The goal is definitely tempting , but will he ever be allowed to accomplish it?
In case of further Putin advances in Ukraine, an international coalition will inevitably begin to form. It is not that Americans want it badly, but it will become necessary. Besides the U.S., the coalition will include Ukraine, Turkey, the Baltic countries, Poland, and the United Kingdom. These countries have the most obvious reasons to enter such a coalition.
And then the events can go on according to the scenario of the Iraq campaign ’91. First there will be an ultimatum, which Putin will certainly reject, and then a military operation that will kick Putin out of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
Further variants are also possible. Most probably it is freeing Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the deployment of U.S. troops. Or maybe not; it will all depend on what Putin will offer Americans.
I do not think that the U.S. will finish Putin off and invade Russia. They have no reason to do this for two reasons. The first reason is that they want Putin as a counterweight to China, the second reason is that Putin will be finished off by his own citizens. After his shameful defeat, he is unlikely to be seriously supported by his fellow citizens and will most likely be just swept away.
Removing Putin will be a prerequisite for the Russian elite to return to the civilized world and for the sanctions against Russia to be lifted. And there will be a very high likelihood that Putin will be put out of the way – “disposed of” – physically, because in case of Putin’s entering the Hague international criminal court he is likely to reveal information which is too confidential, and no one needs it.
Nuclear weapons are certainly a serious threat, but the likelihood of their use is extremely low, since both sides are well aware of the consequences of such a step. And let us not forget that the U.S. has a fourfold nuclear superiority over Russia.
And now regarding the timing. Preparing such an operation can take anywhere from three to six months, or maybe more. All this time negotiations will be going on, the coalition will be formed and the West will look for options to reduce their dependence on Russian energy.
There will be no need to ask for UN sanctions for the beginning of military operations, because Ukraine will be likely to directly ask for military help.
Translated by Halyna Kaluzhna Edited Janet Taylor