Putin and Gerasimov inflate battlefield wins, but ISW data exposes the gap
ISW says Gerasimov claimed 50% of Kostyantynivka; verified data shows 1.6%.
Browsing Tag
ISW
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Russian FM Lavrov revives Hitler and Napoleon to sell endless war to Russians
Lavrov claimed that Germany, France, and others are reviving Nazism through their backing of Ukraine during Russia's invasion, ISW reported.
ISW: Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad will likely fall – but Russia will pay in time and blood (MAPS)
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian units still operating along Donetska Railway despite Russian armored assaults.
Putin boasts of economic strength. ISW says he’s bluffing to pressure the West
Analysts say Kremlin pairs economic claims with "inevitable victory" narrative.
ISW: Russia’s Huliaipole breakthrough came from months of preparation, not sudden Ukrainian collapse (MAP)
Moscow shifted airborne units from Sumy, brigades from across the front to build strength.
ISW: Russia’s rate of advance “does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast”
The Kremlin’s belief in inevitable victory ignores battlefield realities where major cities remain out of reach.
Moscow rejects Europe’s version of US-Russia peace plan, which allows Ukraine to become NATO member
Ushakov says Moscow opposes Europe’s terms, which effectively preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty.
ISW: Lavrov revives full set of pre-invasion narratives — this time aimed at Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
The Russian FM's remarks suggest Moscow is testing narratives to justify future confrontation with NATO’s eastern flank, ISW says.
Russia sees deported Ukrainian children as bargaining chips with Washington – ISW
Russia returns 7 Ukrainian children to boost US ties while holding 19,500 more.
Putin claims Russia prioritizes civilian safety as advances stall, despite years of atrocities – ISW
Putin sought to justify Russia’s slow battlefield advances by citing concern for civilian safety, even as Russian forces continue daily attacks on Ukrainian civilians across the country.
Russia’s war economy hits its wall: ISW and US Treasury confirm Euromaidan Press analysis
The signs were already there—Western intelligence is just catching up.
NYP: Russia tells the world it’s winning — actual military performance paints a different picture
While Putin talks victory, Russia’s forces are stuck fighting for fields at unsustainable losses and can't break Ukrainian defenses.
Fuel shortages reach Russian drivers: Ukraine’s refinery strikes trigger worst price spike in 15 years – ISW
Russian gas stations are reportedly selling low-quality gasoline that's breaking down Chinese vehicles, while nearly one in five drivers report encountering empty pumps - concrete signs that Ukraine's systematic strikes on refineries are now affecting ordinary Russians at the pump.
Ukrainian counterattacks expose Russian command chaos across Pokrovsk front
Three Russian brigades forced to halt operations as coordination failures between army corps turn tactical setbacks into operational disruptions
US Intelligence helps Ukraine strike Russian oil refineries as Putin moves to stabilize fuel market
Putin signed a decree on 12 Oct. suspending fuel subsidy reductions through May 2026, seeking to stabilize Russia's gasoline market as Ukraine's US-backed drone strikes have damaged 16 of 38 refineries and triggered widespread shortages.
ISW: Ukraine war enters critical new phase as Russia builds strategic reserves
Russia is forming a strategic reserve and has signed contracts with nearly 292,000 new recruits, increasing pressure on eastern Ukraine.
Moscow boasts of domestic drone production—but without China’s parts, Shaheds would never fly
Russia’s long-range drone program is propped up by Beijing, which provides critical components for assembly plants in Tatarstan and beyond.
ISW: Russia’s true drone target is Ukrainian and Western morale—Ukraine needs more Patriots
By exhausting air defenses and terrorizing cities, Moscow aims to break Ukraine and her allies.
ISW: Moscow tries to trade business deals with Washingtopn for Ukraine’s capitulation, while drones rain down on maternity wards and hospitals
As Russian diplomats discuss commerce, Ukraine endures brutal drone attacks demanding its collapse.
ISW: While signaling peace to West, Putin’s recent speech reveals drive to annex Ukrainian lands and erase its nationhood
From calling Kherson and Zaporizhzhia “Novorossiya” to branding Odesa as Russian, Putin and his aides double down on propaganda denying Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate nation.