Despite recent diplomatic engagement with Western leaders, such as Putin’s call with German Chancellor, the Kremlin shows no sign of backing away from its core demand for Ukraine's unconditional surrender, according to The Institute for the Study of War.
Russian forces claim 1500 sq km advance, as they suffer the highest losses of the war: 1,345 daily casualties, 200 tanks, 650 armored vehicles through October.
Serbia's President claimed Russia's ruler revealed during a phone call that Russia keeps rejecting ceasefire possibilities while pursuing stated military goals.
Russian forces are advancing at just 14 square kilometers per day in September 2024, compared to 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022, according to a new ISW analysis.
The ISW identifies specific Russian units operating in Kursk Oblast, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and the Alabai reconnaissance group.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia's covert operations aimed at undermining European stability and NATO readiness are likely to persist or intensify, irrespective of whether Ukraine receives long-range strike capabilities from Western allies.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly digging in to hold newly captured areas in Russia's Kursk Oblast, while Russian troops make significant advances southeast of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. These contrasting situations highlight the fluid nature of the conflict, with both sides achieving localized gains in different sectors of the expansive battlefront.
ISW's report identifies 245 Russian military and paramilitary objects within ATACMS range. The study challenges US restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, arguing that Russian asset redeployment does not diminish the strategic importance of these targets.
The ISW reports that Russian forces are leveraging deep rear areas for various military infrastructure, emphasizing the need for Ukraine's long-range strike capability.
Despite significant investments in border fortifications, Russia's defenses proved inadequate during a recent Ukrainian Kursk incursion. ISW analysts predict this development may prompt Russian military leaders to allocate more resources for border protection and impact its large-scale offensive operations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Kremlin has chosen to declare a counterterrorism operation in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region rather than impose martial law to downplay the scale of the incursion and prevent domestic panic or backlash.
Russian forces face a strategic dilemma as they respond to a surprise Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, potentially impacting ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine.
Russian military bloggers dismissed reports of Ukrainian incursions into Russia's Kursk Oblast as "unsuccessful" and a "media stunt,” claiming it "diverts attention" from ongoing offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian officials remained largely silent on the matter.
Ukrainian forces have destroyed 20 S-300 launchers and 15 radar stations, setting the stage for F-16 fighter jet deployment, according to a new ISW report.
The scale of Ukrainian attacks and the possibility of conducting a new offensive of operational significance will largely depend on the scale of the military supplies from the West.