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Analysis

388 posts

Analysis of events in Ukraine

4 minute read

Analysis

The Insider: As Russia depletes Soviet tanks and artillery, Putin’s Ukraine war drive to end by 2026

Once boasting a vast Soviet arsenal, Russia now has just 2,000 tanks left. With production stuck at 250 tanks yearly against massive battlefield losses, Moscow faces an insurmountable math problem.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

10 minute read

Analysis

Why Ukraine can’t just “make peace”: top historian explains what the West gets wrong about peace with Russia

While the West calls for Ukraine’s concessions to Russia, historian Yaroslav Hrytsak warns of what's really at stake a nation’s last chance to break free from centuries of imperial bloodshed.

byBohdan Ben

11 minute read

Analysis

Modern weapons, ancient lessons: Why Ukraine’s NATO-trained brigades struggle to deliver

Two millennia after Rome's legions proved that veterans outperform raw recruits, Ukraine faces the same hard truth.

byAlya Shandra

6 minute read

Analysis

Ukrainian drones devastated North Korean troops in Kursk. That might be exactly what Kim wanted

For months, military analysts have watched an unprecedented experiment unfold: North Korea's first foreign combat deployment in 70 years has become a brutal lesson in modern warfare—one defined by Ukrainian drones and heavy casualties.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

5 minute read

Analysis

Russia’s fiber-optic drones dodge jamming, but Ukraine hunts them with infrared and sound

A thin glass thread trailing behind new Russian drones has neutralized billions in electronic warfare defenses. Now, Ukrainian forces are scrambling to devise new air defense strategies.

byBenjamin Looijen

5 minute read

Analysis

The EU banned Russian timber—then bought € 1.5 billion worth anyway

Poland, Ukraine's strongest EU ally, has emerged as the largest importer of banned Russian timber, taking in a third of all suspect shipments since sanctions began.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

5 minute read

Analysis

Russia caught presenting own Kursk losses as Ukrainian defeats, OSINT analysis shows

Russian losses are repurposed as Ukrainian defeats, a single damaged Challenger tank is spun into multiple victories, and old footage is rebranded as new losses—Russian propaganda accounts reached millions with fabricated evidence of Ukrainian setbacks.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

Reality dawns: Trump's 24h Ukraine vows meet Moscow

8 minute read

Analysis

Reality dawns: Trump’s 24h Ukraine vows meet Moscow

Donald Trump's promise to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours has vanished since his return to the White House. "Trump himself no longer believes in this," says Oleksandr Kraiev, Ukraine foreign policy expert.

byMaria Tril

8 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine faces critical military reform challenge as desertions soar past 100,000

New promising policies allow unit transfers and civilian promotions, but ineffective mobilization rules remain unchanged.

byBohdan Ben

US would spend $ 808B to defend new 2,600-mile NATO border if Russia wins in Ukraine, report says

4 minute read

Analysis

US would spend $ 808 bn to defend new 2,600-mile NATO border if Russia wins in Ukraine, report says

US military aid to Ukraine since 2022, totaling $112 billion, represents less than 14% of what American taxpayers would face in defense spending if Russia wins, according to the American Enterprise Institute.

byOrysia Hrudka

11 minute read

Analysis

Is Russia really invincible? History suggests otherwise

Russia's defeats in Crimea, Japan, WWI, and Afghanistan tell a clear story: Moscow's military isn't invincible. For Ukraine's allies, this history matters.

byBenjamin Looijen

7 minute read

Analysis

“Putin fears him.” Zelenskyy courts Trump, dismisses Biden in viral Fridman interview

In a three-hour podcast, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Donald Trump can stop Vladimir Putin. At the same time, he criticized Joe Biden’s approach to handling Russia's war in Ukraine.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

8 minute read

Analysis

How Russia cracked NATO’s advanced weapons in Ukraine

2025 will be a critical year for Ukraine as the Russian army gains momentum, Austrian defense expert warns

byBenjamin Looijen

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 24: Volunteers of a group called Black Tulip prepare to examine personal belongings of two Russian soldiers whose bodies were collected on the second anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 24, 2024.

2 minute read

Analysis

Russia’s human loss/fighting area ratio exceeds all modern conflicts except Korean War

Russian forces are losing up to 1,500 soldiers per day in 2024 while gaining minimal territory, marking the least efficient force-to-territory ratio in modern military operations.

byVolodymyr Dacenko

24 minute read

Why is Ukraine losing ground? Mobilization crisis and command failures exposed

Ukraine's military problems can no longer be ignored as mobilization failures and systemic issues lead to mounting territorial losses

byTatarigami

3 minute read

The gist

The end of an era: Russia loses its gas grip on Europe

Moscow's most potent leverage over Europe - its gas pipelines - has finally run dry, and there's no turning back the clock.

byYurii Bohdanov

8 minute read

Think 2024 was wild? Eight global forces will make 2025 even more turbulent

From middle-income traps to migration crisis, a guide to how Ukraine and democracies must navigate coming instability

byYurii Bohdanov

For the first time since invasion, polls show Ukrainians want peace talks with Russia. But red lines stand

4 minute read

Analysis

Now, polls show Ukrainians want peace talks with Russia. But red lines stand

Gallup data shows a strategic shift, with 52% of Ukrainians backing peace talks. At the same time, a New Europe Center survey reveals that 74.5% firmly reject any reduction in Ukraine's military capabilities, a key Russian demand.

byOrysia Hrudka

Battle of Pokrovsk Russia losses Stalingrad

3 minute read

Analysis

Russia lost more heavy equipment in Pokrovsk than in Stalingrad

The 13-month battle for Pokrovsk has become one of history's costliest armored engagements, with Russia losing more tanks than any European nation currently possesses.

byVolodymyr Dacenko

10 minute read

Analysis

Putin must end Ukraine war by 2025 or face economic collapse, warns ex-energy chief

Despite Russian advances in Ukrainian Donbas, the Kremlin faces a looming economic disaster driven by military spending, reveals Vladimir Milov, Russia's former deputy energy minister and close ally of Alexei Navalny.

byTatarigami