Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1679: Russia raises its war budget by 27% to a record as it looks to grow its war in 2027

Exclusives

In Ukraine’s Vivaldi offensive, nobody rides in the BTR-60s. Bulgaria’s old troop carriers go into Russian bunkers packed with mines. Too thinly armored for infantry, 110 Bulgarian-donated BTR-60s now go into Russian bunkers near Lyman packed with anti-tank mines and nobody inside.

Europe and Ukraine already have the force to stop Russia. What’s missing is the alliance.. The war may reach Europe by 2027; NATO won't be ready until 2035. The fastest deterrent already exists: a declared alliance with Ukraine's combat-proven force.

Ukraine’s tanks are fighting from kilometers back. A 1960s Soviet model does that nearly as well. Ukraine captured more than 40 T-62Ms from Russia, mostly during the 2022 counteroffensives, and has not registered a confirmed combat loss since.

For years Ukraine could jam or switch off Russia’s battlefield comms. Rassvet may be the first it can’t. Sanctioning the firm behind Russia's Starlink won't stop it. It can make every satellite slower and costlier to build—and the clock is short.

Military

Russia drained the Kakhovka Reservoir. Now it hides in the dry bed to creep toward Zaporizhzhia. A frontline commander expects small Russian groups to slip into the city by winter. A leading analyst calls that far too categorical—and says the front is moving the other way.

Vivaldi counteroffensive advanced after Ukraine took Russia’s drones out of the fight, ISW assesses. Armored vehicles reached heavy Russian fortifications in the Lyman sector without coming under drone attack, which the analysts read as a sign of Ukrainian drone overmatch.

Russia’s mass drone attacks on Ukraine have a goal—likely Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027, ISW says. Until his new theory of victory has played out, Putin is unlikely to soften his demands or enter serious ceasefire talks, according to ISW.

Russia’s pipeline into Kupiansk is now its escape route—with kidnapped civilians as human shields, Ukraine says. Ukrainian drones filmed the column on 27 September. Khartia warned Russia could pass the footage off as an "evacuation" or "rescue" of civilians.

Ukraine makes local gains on Pokrovsk front despite sustained Russian attacks. The marines cleared 5 square kilometers and captured two Russian soldiers.

A Ukrainian Hornet drone hit a Russian radar 120 km behind the front. It was likely a $100 million Nebo-M. The strike is part of a push to cut Russian logistics and strip Russian forces of radar and electronic warfare systems, a brigade officer says.

Ukraine hits railways of Bryansk, Russia’s launchpad for strikes on Kyiv: downed bridge and 28 derailed cars, region’s governor says. Ukraine's drones reportedly hit the region's railways.

Intelligence and technology

Mavic vs Slavic: Ukrainian developers adapt reconnaissance drones to the modern battlefield. “The drone was developed as a Ukrainian alternative to Chinese commercial quadcopters,” Vyriy Industries said.

A Ukrainian firm now rents out drone jammers by the day—but the deposit is the device’s full price. The daily fee comes off a deposit worth the whole device—rent long enough and the jammer becomes yours.

Ukraine just caught a Geran-5 at 425 km/h—the jet drone that has often outrun Ukrainian interceptor drones since January. Ukrainian crews now stop just over half of Russia's jet-powered drones, against more than 90% of the older Shaheds, even as Moscow builds them by the thousand.

Russia is stepping up fake Ukrainian government pages as bait for recruiting agents, Ukraine’s security service says. Russian intelligence uses the counterfeits to spread disinformation and to harvest data on the Ukrainians who subscribe.

Russia is launching a faster Geran-5 at Ukraine that satellite jamming may no longer knock off course, a monitoring channel says. The drone can steer by images of the terrain below, and its extra speed makes it harder for interceptors to catch, though Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the system.

International

Russia ordered arson attack on Estonian military robot-maker supplying Ukraine, Estonia confirms. Estonia says its intelligence service established that Russia’s special services ordered the August fire at Milrem Robotics, as Russian sabotage operations spreads across Europe.

Belgium rushes three F-16s to Ukraine as Russia expands its drone and missile assault. Zelenskyy says the aircraft will arrive by the end of 2026, strengthening Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian air targets and conduct combat missions.

Russian jet-powered drone hits near Yahodyn, just 1.5 km from Poland, as Warsaw changes air defense rules. Poland plans to allow decisions to engage aerial targets based on radar data.

Lithuania gets its US tank battalion back while the Pentagon weighs pulling up to 40,000 troops from Europe. The Lithuanian leader calls the decision an encouragement and says fewer American soldiers will remain on the continent overall.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian troops enter homes and threaten starving Oleshky residents for food and alcohol, officials say. Residents who escaped the occupied Kherson Oblast city describe threats and abuse by Russian troops amid severe shortages of food, water, and medicine.

Russian mercenaries blew off African prisoners’ legs to practice battlefield medicine, Wagner fighter says. A Russian mercenary captured by Ukraine describes alleged Wagner training sessions where prisoners were deliberately maimed and killed so recruits could practice battlefield medicine and killing techniques.

Russia hits a Kharkiv high-rise overnight, injuring 43 people, then kills four in daylight strikes on central Kyiv and Dnipro. A pre-dawn strike on Ukraine's second city gave way to drone attacks on a business center and then a national science institution during working hours.

“Reminiscent of 11 September at World Trade Center”: Russia strikes Ukraine’s century-old National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv, people are climbing onto windows not to be buried alive

Political and legal developments

Russia raises its war budget by 27% and expands the army again – both to new records – even as its budget deficit widens and oil revenues fall. Moscow plans to spend a record 17.1 trillion rubles on defense in 2027 as it raises taxes and borrowing to cover a widening deficit.

The Kremlin calls mobilization talk “nonsense”—Zelenskyy says it has already begun, with North Korean reinforcements. The claim comes from Ukraine's military intelligence, which has tracked Russian preparations for a larger call-up for months.

War is costing Ukraine $155 billion per year. With Western aid running late, Kyiv is freezing everything but army, pensions, and public wages. Kyiv froze parks, fountains, and road repairs to pay its army and pensioners first.

After Russia hits Kyiv’s Academy of Sciences with jet-powered drone, the Kremlin says Ukraine must “pay a price”. Peskov calls Russia's intensified strikes part of that price.

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