Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1678: Russia’s mass drone attacks are designed to bring about Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027

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Ukraine’s tanks are fighting from kilometers back. A 1960s Soviet model does that nearly as well. Ukraine captured more than 40 T-62Ms from Russia, mostly during the 2022 counteroffensives, and has not registered a confirmed combat loss since.

Six minutes in March, two hours by August.Russia’s new satellite network may be the first comms system Ukraine can’t switch off. Sanctioning the firm behind Russia's Starlink won't stop it. It can make every satellite slower and costlier to build—and the clock is short.

Military

Ukraine makes local gains on Pokrovsk front despite sustained Russian attacks. The marines cleared 5 square kilometers and captured two Russian soldiers.

Ukraine hits railways of Bryansk, Russia’s launchpad for strikes on Kyiv: downed bridge and 28 derailed cars, region’s governor says. Ukraine's drones reportedly hit the region's railways.

Ukraine outfoxes Russia near Donetsk’s fortress belt with Soviet BTR-60s rebuilt as kamikaze robots, storms a key hub and takes 250 Russian prisoners. Russia burned its reserves on a feint while the 3rd Army Corps took Nove, closing Vivaldi's decisive third season, its commander says.

Ukraine hits two fuel depots in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia, in one night—both wholesale diesel and gasoline. Residents of Novotitarovskaya, 25 km from Krasnodar, reported at least six explosions near the railway before the fires started..

Intelligence and technology

A Ukrainian Hornet drone hit a Russian radar 120 km behind the front. It was likely a $100 million Nebo-M. The strike is part of a push to cut Russian logistics and strip Russian forces of radar and electronic warfare systems, a brigade officer says.

Russia is launching a faster Geran-5 at Ukraine that satellite jamming may no longer knock off course, a monitoring channel says. The drone can steer by images of the terrain below, and its extra speed makes it harder for interceptors to catch, though Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the system.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia’s pipeline into Kupiansk is now its escape route—with kidnapped civilians as human shields, Ukraine says. Ukrainian drones filmed the column on 27 September. Khartia warned Russia could pass the footage off as an "evacuation" or "rescue" of civilians.

Russia hits a Kharkiv high-rise overnight, injuring 43 people, then kills four in daylight strikes on central Kyiv and Dnipro. A pre-dawn strike on Ukraine's second city gave way to drone attacks on a business center and then a national science institution during working hours.

“Reminiscent of 11 September at World Trade Center”: Russia strikes Ukraine’s century-old National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv, people are climbing onto windows not to be buried alive.

Ukraine’s disclosure of secret North Korean POW transfer sparks South Korea’s demand for an apology. Seoul says Kyiv broke a promise to keep the transfer of two North Korean soldiers quiet, and Kyiv says it never made one.

Political and legal developments

War is costing Ukraine $155 billion per year. With Western aid running late, Kyiv is freezing everything but army, pensions, and public wages. Kyiv froze parks, fountains, and road repairs to pay its army and pensioners first.

After Russia hits Kyiv’s Academy of Sciences with jet-powered drone, the Kremlin says Ukraine must “pay a price”. Peskov calls Russia's intensified strikes part of that price.

New developments

Russia’s mass drone attacks on Ukraine have a goal—likely Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027, ISW says. Until his new theory of victory has played out, Putin is unlikely to soften his demands or enter serious ceasefire talks, according to ISW.

Read our earlier daily review here.