Russia deploys missile brigade to Belarus as fears grow over new threat to Kyiv

Russia has deployed units of its 101st Missile Brigade to Belarus, a formation equipped with the Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko, Ukrinform reports.

Russia has been ramping up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, including increasingly frequent strikes on Kyiv from the north, launched from Russian territory close to Belarus. Russia used Belarusian territory to launch its 2022 invasion of northern Ukraine, while Belarus is now allowing Russia to use its territory to support drone attacks. The latest deployment could give Moscow another launchpad for strikes deeper into Ukraine or potentially against targets in Europe.

Belarus not preparing to enter war, but threat remains

Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform that Ukraine currently assesses the military threat from Belarus as low and sees no signs that Belarus is preparing to directly enter the war.

But he said Kyiv is concerned by the growing Russian military presence in Belarus and the role Belarusian territory is playing in Russian attacks on Ukraine.

“Units of the 101st Missile Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, which are equipped with the Oreshnik missile system, are also deployed on the territory of Belarus,” Ivashchenko told Ukrinform.

The Oreshnik is a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile system that Moscow has presented as a new weapon capable of striking targets deep inside Europe. Russia first used an Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in November 2024, striking the city of Dnipro.

Oreshnik has been stationed in Belarus

Russia has maintained Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus since at least December 2025, when Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka said an Oreshnik system had been placed on combat duty there as part of expanded military cooperation with Moscow.

The system is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, although Russia has used Oreshnik against Ukraine in a non-nuclear strike. Ukrainian intelligence has previously said the deployment is aimed in part at increasing pressure on Europe and NATO by shortening the missile's flight time to European targets.

The Oreshnik systems in Belarus remain under Russian control rather than Belarusian command, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

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Belarus allows Russia to use its territory to guide drone strikes

Ivashchenko also said Belarus has allowed Russia to deploy radio-signal repeaters that help guide Russian Shahed-type attack drones toward Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure targets.

“If Belarus did not give such permission, this indicates that Minsk no longer controls Russia’s activities on its own territory,” he said, according to Ukrinform.

The use of Belarusian territory to support Russian attacks has stopped short of Belarusian forces directly entering the war, but it demonstrates Minsk's growing role in enabling Russia's military operations. 

That cooperation makes the prospect of Russia using Belarusian territory for additional military capabilities less remote, particularly as Moscow expands its forces and intensifies attacks on Kyiv from the northern direction.

Renewed concern over a northern Russian offensive

The comments come as Russian strikes on Kyiv have intensified in recent weeks, while Ukrainian officials have increasingly warned about the possibility of another Russian offensive from the north toward Kyiv and Chernihiv.

There is no reported Russian ground offensive from Belarus underway. But the northern direction remains a major concern for Ukraine because of the precedent set in 2022, when Russian forces crossed from Belarus and advanced toward Kyiv before withdrawing in early April.

For now, Ivashchenko assesses the military threat from Belarus as low. The deployment of Russian missile forces nevertheless adds another significant Russian weapons capability to Belarus, while leaving open questions about how Moscow could use the territory in a future escalation.