Ukraine’s April strikes pushed Russia’s refinery output to its lowest level since December 2009

In April, Ukraine carried out at least nine strikes on Russia’s oil refining industry, according to Bloomberg. Estimates by the analytics firm OilX indicate this reduced Russia’s average refinery throughput to 4.69 million barrels per day, the lowest level since December 2009.

Overall, at least 21 Ukrainian strikes in April targeted Russian refineries, offshore assets, including export terminals, and pipeline infrastructure.

Ukraine has intensified attacks on the enemy’s infrastructure as Kyiv seeks to reduce the excess revenues Moscow earns from elevated global oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions.

Russia maneuvers exports, but the consequences may reverse

The decline in crude processing rates is putting pressure on both the domestic market, where seasonal demand is rising, and global refined product markets, as Russia is a key exporter of diesel fuel.

At the same time, reduced refinery activity has allowed Russia to increase seaborne exports in April, despite fewer attacks on ports, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. However, this may prove temporary if Ukraine resumes port strikes in the near future.

Meanwhile, Russia’s internal pipeline network, the largest in the world and designed during the Cold War, remains relatively resilient to military action. This has enabled rerouting of oil flows from damaged facilities, meaning the attacks have not yet caused sustained disruptions to domestic supply.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on a proposal by Russian leader Vladimir Putin to introduce a ceasefire on 9 May. The proposal refers to the period of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, which the Kremlin traditionally uses as a propaganda tool.