Ukraine dominates with drones—until fog arrives in Pokrovsk

The overcast and foggy weather that rolled in with the winter months is an opportunity for Russian forces to rush infantry and vehicles across the drone-patrolled no-man's-land and secure new positions in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and other contested settlements.

That's because bad weather means poor visibility for drones—and drones are now the main means of defense for infantry-starved Ukrainian formations.

If the drones can see, the Russians struggle to advance. If the drones can't see, the Russians advance quickly—and in large numbers.

This was dramatically evident this weekend. "During recent days, the Russians have intensified efforts to penetrate Pokrovsk on light equipment through the southern suburbs," the Ukrainian 7th Rapid Response Corps, which defends Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad, explained on social media on Tuesday.

"For this, the enemy used adverse weather conditions, including thick fog," the corps added. "This reduces opportunities for our aerial reconnaissance."

How fog blinds Ukrainian drone defenses in Pokrovsk

Videos from Pokrovsk during the stretch of bad weather depict dozens of Russian troops motoring into the city on bikes and in compact cars and trucks. Yes, videos also depict some Ukrainian drone strikes on the intruding Russians—but too few and too slow to halt the Russian advance.

"There are currently more than 300 Russians in the city," the 7th Rapid Response Corps warned. "Their goal remains unchanged—to reach the northern borders of Pokrovsk with a further attempt to surround the agglomeration."

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First Russian truck enters Pokrovsk as fog blinds Ukrainian drones

The Russians were already creeping into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before the weekend fog, but much more slowly. Now with the advantageous weather, Russian forces have accelerated their advance dramatically—and the fragments of two Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad face potential encirclement.

Russian commanders exploit weather to bypass drone surveillance

One Ukrainian drone operator has been warning for months—years even—that fog and other obscurants can blunt Ukraine's drone edge, assuming Russian commanders have the foresight to take advantage of the concealment.

"Need to say that Russian [paratroopers are] trying to use fog and a lot of smoke at the battlefield," drone operator Kriegsforscher reported a year ago. "And it really helps."

Four months later in March, the Russians continued to attack under the cover of smoke and fog in Kriegsforscher's sector. "I need to say that because of the smoke, it was hard for us to find them," the drone operator stated. "It's effective."

The fog that protected the Russians back in the spring is even thicker now. In late October, analyst Moklasen observed the Russian 336th Naval Infantry Brigade attacking toward the village of Dobropillia, just north of Pokrovsk.

"Heavy fog," Moklasen observed. The concealment allowed Russian bike troops to sweep a road of Ukrainian munitions and clear a path for up-armored Russian vehicles to assault toward Dobropillia while the bikers fetched the wounded and sped them back toward Russian lines.

Dobropillia remains in Ukrainian hands despite the foggy Russian attacks, but the same can't be said of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. After a yearlong siege, the settlements are on the cusp of falling to the larger Russian force.

Ukraine's infantry shortage exposes critical vulnerability

The loss underscores an important truism. Infantry can fight through fog in a way drones can't, but Ukraine has too few infantry to fill the aerial gaps when the drones can't fly or see.

"Drones and artillery help, but infantry still matters," Finnish analyst Joni Askola explained. "You need soldiers to hold ground. Ukraine does not have enough."

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