Russia is preparing its population for a potential mobilization, says Head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation and officer of the Ukrainian Defense Forces Andrii Kovalenko.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has reported that Russian forces have adapted their capabilities and may sustain offensive operations for at least another year. Russia has lost 172,000 troops killed since the start of its all-out war against Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, 611,000 soldiers have been wounded, with 376,000 sustaining severe injuries leading to permanent disability and discharge from military service. The remaining 235,000 have recovered and returned to combat.
He explains that a military propagandist for Akhmat—a special unit within Russia’s National Guard stationed in Chechnya and commanded by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—openly speaks about the need to mobilize “a couple of million” men for a war against Europe. This propagandist, Apti Alaudinov, has threatened the West with total defeat and the collapse of NATO.
Akhmat has been involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukrainian authorities suspect its members of being involved in war crimes against Ukrainian civilians.
“This is part of a broader information campaign testing the Russian population’s reaction to the prospect of total war. The narrative is being studied, public responses are being measured, and the results will be placed on Putin’s desk,” Kovalenko stated.
He notes that other Russian officials have expressed similar ideas, and reports of emergency meetings in Moscow about a new war scenario are circulating on social media.
“The Kremlin is trying to convince Russians of the inevitability of conflict and the need for a new wave of mobilization, presenting it as the path to a swift victory,” Kovalenko said.
He also reiterated his earlier warnings that Russia plans a possible invasion of the Baltic states within 4–6 years.
“However, mobilizing millions now would mean a prolonged and exhausting war that could last for decades, turning Russia into a military camp reminiscent of 1941–1945,” he adds.
On 6 March, the 27 leaders of the European Union are meeting in Brussels for a special summit focused on Ukraine’s future amid significant shifts in US policy.
The emergency meeting was convened in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to launch negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin following their 90-minute phone call.
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