After the US took the decision to suspend all military aid to Ukraine after a heated dispute between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and POTUS Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, at the Oval Office on 28 February, experts chimed in on how it could affect the battlefield.
According to Hill, who asked several experts in the field, the implications will be felt even if not immediately.
George Barros, an expert on the Ukraine-Russia conflict for the Institute for the Study of War, dubbed the immediate battlefield effect “bad”, adding that the significant impact will be felt if the suspension stretches into the summer.
At the same time, Europe cannot compensate for some of the aid, especially US-made Patriot interceptors and other air defenses. This could happen within weeks.
“There are certain niche systems and capabilities that the United States provides Ukraine that the Ukrainians do not have an analogue for, and neither do the Europeans, particularly air defense interceptors,” said Barros.
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow with the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, largely corroborated Barros’s analysis, adding that there’s no easy replacement for long-range strike weapons such as HIMARS and ATACMS.
“Their critical infrastructure is getting hammered by cruise and ballistic missiles,” Montgomery said. “Without these weapons systems, more Russian stuff hits, more infrastructure is damaged. Without the long-range strike, Russia can bring contact to the enemy quicker with less risk. This [freeze] makes things worse.”
Meanwhile, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities Jennifer Kavanagh said that Ukraine will be poised to choose soon: “Do they defend the power station? Or do they defend their F-16 center on the ground? … That’s where the pinch will be felt first.”
The suspension of the aid, including some intel sharing, was previously confirmed by the CIA’s director John Ratcliffe. He and Trump’s National security advisor indicated that the suspension would be lifted when the White House asserts that Ukraine is ready for peace negotiations. At the moment, the US and Ukraine are forming a peace negotiations delegation.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a subtle apology to Trump, which he mentioned and appreciated in his speech in Congress.
