US financier warns of refugee surge if Ukraine aid plan fails

Europe must act quickly to seize $300bn in Russian reserves or risk losing control over Ukraine’s future, warns Sir Bill Browder.
US financier warns of refugee surge if Ukraine aid plan fails

A leading US financier has warned that Britain and Europe could face a new wave of Ukrainian refugees if $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are not seized and given to Ukraine.

Sir Bill Browder said that these funds could sustain Ukraine’s defense for “three or four years” without additional Western military support.

Frozen Russian assets consist of financial resources belonging to the Russian government and its entities that were immobilized in Western jurisdictions following sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using these frozen assets to support Ukraine has become a crucial component of international efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities during the ongoing war.

The situation on the frontline in Ukraine has grown increasingly tense since mid-2024, with Russia intensifying its military offensives across multiple sectors. Ukraine’s current challenges stem from critical shortages in personnel, ammunition, and heavy equipment, which have hampered its ability to sustain military operations against Russian forces.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Browder warned, “If forced into a total capitulation, we are going to end up in Western Europe, in the UK, with 15-20 million refugees.”

Following Trump‘s victory in the US elections, his declared intention to end the war in Ukraine has raised concerns among European leaders. They worry his proposed peace deal might force Ukraine to surrender territory, failing to address Europe’s broader security needs.

The founder of Hermitage Capital Management cautioned that Vladimir Putin might target other nations if Ukraine falls. “We’re also going to end up in a situation where Putin will then make a move on Estonia,” he stated.

Addressing Trump’s potential influence, Browder noted, “The main leverage that Donald Trump has in forcing a settlement on Ukraine is the idea that he can dictate terms by withdrawing US funding for the war.”

He argued that Western nations could counter this by seizing Russian assets: “There is no reason why Trump should have all this leverage when there’s $300 billion in Russian Central Bank reserves sitting in Western central banks, most of which is in the UK and Europe.”

While G7 nations have agreed to seize interest from the frozen funds for Ukrainian aid, full seizure requires unanimous support from all 27 EU members.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to address the Davos forum this week, Browder emphasized, “Trump shouldn’t be telling us what to do. We should be grabbing this money.”

“If Ukraine wants to settle the war, they’re fully within their rights to do so, but on terms that they want to accept,” he said.

Nearly 3,000 representatives from over 130 countries are attending the forum in Davos, which focuses on “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak will discuss Ukraine’s peace formula with former NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg on 22 January.

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