The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 1 November that the 8,000 North Korean troops preparing for combat deployment in Russia’s Kursk Oblast represent approximately one week’s worth of Russian casualties across the entire frontline.
Russian forces are experiencing around 1,200 casualties daily, amounting to approximately 36,000 per month.
US estimates indicate Russian monthly recruitment stands between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers, “meaning Russia is just shy of being able to replace its current rate of frontline losses at a 1:1 ratio,” ISW reports.
ISW reports that North Korea has committed an estimated 12,000 troops to Russia’s war effort.
Despite Choe’s statements about Pyongyang’s indefinite commitment, the ISW analysis suggests this support may not provide a sustainable solution to Russia’s manpower challenges.
“If North Korean troops face the same casualty rates as Russian forces, then the battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined,” ISW states, adding that “Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to face such losses on the battlefield indefinitely.”
The institute reports that North Korea likely entered the war to gain modern warfare experience but notes that the Russian command’s deployment strategy of North Korean forces will significantly impact their ability to “meaningfully internalize and disseminate combat experience.”
Russia transferred more than 7,000 North Korean military personnel from its Primorsky Krai region to areas near Ukraine in late October, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR) reported on 2 November.
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