Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1689: Russia plans up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and bombs against 60 Ukrainian infrastructure sites this winter, Ukraine says

Exclusives

“Supplying Crimea is turning into a nightmare”: Ukrainian drones hit Russian trucks 770 times in September, and winter will make it worse, analyst says. That's the most of any month this year, up from 630 in August, even though Russian supply trucks now travel in convoys with their own air defense.

Armored assaults aren’t dead. Robots got the credit, but it was Ukrainian infantry in armored trucks that reversed a year of Russian gains near Lyman. Robots cleared the mines and blew up the bunkers, but soldiers still had to ride in and hold the ground.

Military

Ukraine suffered 10 times fewer casualties than Russia in Vivaldi counteroffensive, veteran says. Ukraine’s innovations in drone and ground robot tactics are changing frontline warfare. Ukrainian forces combined assaults with drones and ground robots to reclaim territory in Donetsk Oblast while limiting their exposure to Russian fire.

More than 500 drones by Moscow’s count: Kh-101 fuel plant, second Yandex data center, and a far-north refinery hit. Russian officials confirmed the fires but named none of the targets.

Ukraine reruns its Vivaldi playbook outside Kramatorsk and pushes Russia back across the Siverskyi Donets, ISW says. Even Russian milbloggers now concede Ukrainian gains east of Sloviansk, including a river crossing toward a key height.

Drone attack forces Yandex to shut down its data center on the grounds of a sanctioned Russian machine-tool plant. In Bashkortostan, Ukraine’s General Staff says its forces hit a Gazprom refinery. Salavat’s mayor says an unnamed enterprise there keeps working.

Fewer targets, more waves: jet-powered Gerans partly free Russia to concentrate missiles, ISW says. The faster drones break through Ukraine’s air defenses more reliably, and ISW expects the same strike pattern in Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy.

Intelligence and technology

Air-raid sirens cost Kyiv’s weapons makers 61.8 working hours in month, nearly eight days, yet their contract deadlines stay fixed, two groups say. Ukraine’s gunmakers want the government to count real siren downtime against contract deadlines.

Ukrainian producer that neutralized more than 7,000 drones over 100 square kilometers in year, plays enemy in Pentagon contest, and gets invitation to continue. Ukraine’s Phantom Defense built the counter-drone environment for the Pentagon’s Gauntlet II.

Ukraine uses up Europe’s yearly supply of thermal sensors in about five months, so two Ukrainian firms will build their own plants in the West. Their new venture wants to give Western armies their own supply of the chip that lets thermal cameras see body heat in the dark.

Russia has a plan for Ukraine this winter, Ukraine says: intercepted document reportedly outlines up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and bombs targeting 60 critical infrastructure sites. Substations near Ukraine’s western border, through which the country receives electricity from Europe, could be among the first targets.

International

Trump says Russia agreed to supply millions of tons of diesel to US and global markets as he blames Ukraine for fuel price hikes driven by Iran war. The announcement comes as Trump pressures Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, which Ukraine targets to weaken Moscow’s war economy.

Head of Russian military propaganda network to be expelled from Montenegro over suspected anti-EU operation. Authorities ordered Mikhail Zvynchuk, founder of the Russian military-focused Rybar network, and four associates to leave the country after seizing drones and recording equipment.

Ukrainian journalists say Austria detained them “like terrorists”: prosecutor says suspicion unsubstantiated. Tkach says armed people smashed the car windows, forced the journalists onto the road, and put a knee on his neck during the detention.

Russia sells cheaper fuel abroad and pays to keep its own pumps running amid Ukraine’s refinery strikes, but crude money still flows. After Ukraine’s drone strikes on refineries, Russia’s diesel exports, once its biggest fuel export, fell to a decade low.

Fought against Ukraine, now claimed to be victims: Kenya’s plea for five men held by Ukraine. Kenya says the men took Russian army contracts under false job promises.

Moldova pulls its border officers off Ukrainian soil again as Russian drones keep hitting crossings. “They will work on the territory of Moldova.” Moldovan Interior Minister Daniela Misail-Nikitin, on withdrawing border personnel from Ukraine.

Lithuania puts up to 100 soldiers on Kaliningrad border as officials brace for possible Russian mobilization. The move comes as Moscow rejects reports of a new call-up while Ukrainian officials warn Russia is preparing to expand its forces.

80% of Moldovans say country is unprepared for attack as Russian drones flow into its airspace, but few back NATO membership. A new poll shows widespread concern over Moldova’s ability to withstand an attack, even as only 4% of respondents see NATO membership as the answer. Russian drones have increasingly crossed Moldovan airspace in recent weeks.

Polish SIM cards found inside Russian drones in Poland, raising new questions over 2025 incursion. More than 30 Russian drones entered Polish airspace in September 2025, and some were found carrying Polish SIM cards, RMF24 reports.

Ukraine’s FM links Russian plague scare to history of cover-ups, from anthrax to Chornobyl and COVID-19. Russia’s handling of the suspected case fits a broader pattern of concealing information about dangerous incidents, Andrii Sybiha said.

Humanitarian and social impact

Eggs cost nearly 20 times US prices in occupied Oleshky, where Ukraine’s ombudsman says people die of hunger every day. Residents of Russian-occupied Oleshky cannot leave the city and are waiting for an opportunity to evacuate through a humanitarian corridor.

Warehouses, a home-improvement store, a farm: Russia’s strikes aimed past the grid at Ukraine’s civilian economy. Three people were killed and a woman was still missing as the outages spread.

Blackouts return to Kyiv as Russia prepares to freeze civilians over the winter. Russia is once again targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches, threatening to leave civilians without power, heat, and water as Moscow ramps up its campaign to cripple the country’s critical systems.

Two 14-year-old boys killed by an explosive device in a field in Sumy Oblast. Residents are being warned that, in addition to constant Russian attacks, there is a risk of encountering explosive devices.

Russia kills 30 in strike on two passenger buses in Kramatorsk. Hours after the strike, the head of Donetsk Oblast ordered public transport in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk halted, saying Russia had made the buses a target.

A 3-year-old girl came to visit her aunt in Pryluky, Ukraine. By morning, a Russian missile had killed her grandmother and uncle. Zlatoslava is in hospital in Chernihiv. Her aunt, a police officer, was wounded in the strike.

Political and legal developments

Investigators say prosecutors shielded scam call centers. Their office has now fired eight people and is checking how its ex-chief left Ukraine. The acting chief also ordered out a deputy at the regional office he ran until September and dropped no-contest hiring of outsiders.

Read our previous daily review here.