Russia could launch limited attacks on NATO in coming months, escalating hybrid warfare without being ready for full-scale conflict, Denmark warns

Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West, including more frequent sabotage and cyberattacks that could cause greater damage and casualties, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said in a new assessment published on 24 September.

The assessment says Russia has become increasingly willing to take risks against European and NATO countries, even while its full-scale war against Ukraine continues. DDIS also assesses a low but growing risk of Russia carrying out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months.

Russia preparing to escalate hybrid attacks

DDIS said Russia’s hybrid attacks have increasingly shifted from attempts to create fear and weaken support for Ukraine toward efforts to directly disrupt Western assistance to Kyiv.

This includes sabotage targeting defense companies and railway transport carrying military equipment to Ukraine. The Danish intelligence service expects Russia to carry out such attacks more frequently and with greater consequences.

Future operations could include destructive cyberattacks capable of disrupting critical societal functions and sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties, according to the assessment.

DDIS also cited the foiled drone attack against Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany as an example of Russia’s growing willingness to conduct operations against targets in Europe. German authorities said the attack had been planned by Russia over several months.

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Growing risk of a limited attack on NATO

The Danish intelligence service assesses that there is a low but growing risk Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.

Such an attack could take the form of isolated long-range strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine. Russia could also use Ukrainian-made drones in a false-flag operation or deploy a limited number of troops, potentially without national insignia.

DDIS says Russia could attempt such an operation even while continuing its war against Ukraine and without having the forces needed for a regional war against NATO.

The purpose, according to the assessment, could be to divert European resources away from Ukraine and create divisions within NATO if Moscow believes the alliance would struggle to agree on a collective response.

Russia would likely try to ensure that any military attack remained below the threshold that would trigger a full NATO response. DDIS warns, however, that Russia may be uncertain about what would trigger such a response.

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No signs of an imminent Russian invasion

Despite the increased risk of limited attacks, DDIS says it sees no indications that Russia is preparing to invade one or more NATO countries.

The agency considers a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO “highly unlikely,” but says it cannot be ruled out. If Russia decided to launch such an invasion, DDIS estimates it would need at least six months to build up the necessary forces.

The intelligence service also says Russia would need several months to build up forces near a NATO border before a limited military deployment, making such preparations difficult to conceal.

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Russia under pressure from Ukraine’s attacks

The assessment says Russia is currently under more pressure than at any other point in its war against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s sustained long-range strikes are causing increasing damage deep inside Russia, while Russian forces are suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains. Moscow is also facing economic pressure from military spending, international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure.

DDIS assesses that there is no prospect of Russia achieving a major breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months. At the same time, it says Putin is highly unlikely to compromise on his fundamental objectives in the war.

The agency says Russia believes Europe will develop a stronger independent military capability by 2030, which Moscow could view as an increasing threat. This could create what DDIS describes as a window of opportunity for Putin to attempt to change Europe’s security order.