Wheat buyers from Egypt to Indonesia are paying more after an unspoken wartime arrangement that kept Black Sea grain ships safe collapsed in July. Jordan canceled two wheat tenders and two for barley this month after attracting few offers.
Asian mills face delays on 2 to 2.5 million tons booked for summer delivery—30% to 50% of their import needs—and Indonesia is looking to Australia, Argentina, and Romania to replace about 600,000 tons contracted from the region.
Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry counted 67 attacks on port facilities in July, 35 on civilian vessels in port, and 22 on ships in the maritime corridor. The corresponding figure for all of 2025 was just 14, according to Reuters.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has warned that exports may fall nearly by half this season.
Egypt bought 82% from two countries at war
Egypt sourced over four-fifths of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026. Its private sector, which imports more than half the country’s wheat, has less grain stored than the government, and “the situation is getting worse by the day,” Alexandria-based trader Hesham Soliman told Reuters.
A vessel heading to load grain for Egypt was attacked approaching Novorossiysk last week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he discussed the threat with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Black Sea wheat trades at about $260 to $280 a ton. Australian wheat is quoted at $315 to $320, including cost and freight to Asia, while the cheapest American wheat is at $305, Reuters data showed.
Chicago wheat futures have climbed more than 17% since early July. For now, stronger local harvests in parts of North Africa have cushioned the impact—Egypt procured record volumes of domestic wheat.
Sunflower first, now wheat
India’s refiners shifted to soybean as 150,000 tons of Ukrainian sunflower cargo sat delayed at Black Sea ports. Now the same is happening in wheat.
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Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has warned that exports may fall nearly by half this season. On the Russian side, Novorossiysk’s largest grain terminals halted after drone strikes in August; few shipowners will now enter either country’s ports, traders told Reuters.
