Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.
Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts
Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.
"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."
The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press
The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage.
"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."
Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected.
"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."
The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.
Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.
"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.
Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.
NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.
