Russia’s ex-combatants entering the EU is a risk flagged in a leaked threat assessment

Terrorism poses a significant threat to the European Union, and a leaked EU assessment lists the spillover from Russia's war on Ukraine among the rising risks, according to a document reported by RFE/RL. The report rates the overall threat as high and names Islamist and jihadist terrorism as the bloc's main concern. It also points to Iran and Afghanistan.

What the leaked report warns

The document, prepared by the Council of the EU and seen by RFE/RL, mostly covers 2025 trends, yet still rates the threat level as high. It says organized terrorist networks have lost much of their reach, while individuals acting on extremist inspiration remain dangerous and often use simple means.

Iran's escalation, the report notes, could activate proxy networks or sleeping cells in Europe, and it calls Afghanistan's Islamic State Khorasan Province one of the main external threats. It also flags recruiters reaching children as young as 12 on Telegram and TikTok.

The Russia spillover

The assessment says the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine on the terrorist threat in Europe and globally has so far been limited. But it warns that the flow of small arms and explosives out of the war zone will have consequences in the medium and long term.

Brussels is also concerned that Russian ex-combatants could enter the bloc and turn to crime or violence. Russia has drawn an estimated 180,000 prisoners into its war, and a Schengen entry-ban proposal for these former soldiers is expected in June.

Ukraine and Estonia have already urged the EU to blacklist Russians who fought against it. The Baltic nation tested a national ban before pressing for a bloc-wide mechanism.