Most Ukrainians reject giving up Donetsk Oblast to Russia even for security guarantees — KIIS survey

For Ukrainians, the real substance of “guarantees” matters more than empty promises.
Photo of bracelet in Ukrainian national colors at Maidan Nezalezhnosti (the Independence Square) in Kyiv (Credit- pomisna.ocu via Instagram)
Photo of bracelet in Ukrainian national colors at Maidan Nezalezhnosti (the Independence Square) in Kyiv (Credit- pomisna.ocu via Instagram)
Most Ukrainians reject giving up Donetsk Oblast to Russia even for security guarantees — KIIS survey

Most Ukrainians oppose concessions to Russia. According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 57% of Ukrainians consider it absolutely unacceptable to transfer the entire Donetsk Oblast under Russian control, even in exchange for security guarantees.

Since discussions of a potential agreement began, Ukrainians still do not have a clear understanding of what security guarantees from the United States and Europe would entail. At the same time, sources close to US intelligence indicate that Russia not only has no intention of ending the war, but also seeks to restore control over all former Soviet states.

At the same time, 36% are willing to consider such a concession, although most acknowledge it would be a difficult, forced decision. 

Сore resistance remains stable

Compared to early March 2026, the share of those who firmly oppose the consessions has decreased from 62% to 57%, while the share of those open to concessions has increased from 33% to 36%.

At the same time, current figures have effectively returned to February levels, indicating no sharp changes in public sentiment.

“Overall, we can see that throughout the observation period, public opinion on this issue has not changed significantly, and a majority of Ukrainians consistently view such an initiative critically,” sociologists explain.

Security guarantees without troops or air defense sharply reduce support for compromise

Sociologists also conducted an additional experiment that revealed a key detail. When it is specified that US security guarantees would not include troop deployment, air defense coverage, or free weapons supplies, support for concessions drops sharply.

This shows that for Ukrainians, the real substance of “guarantees” matters more than the concept itself.

Separately, 60% of respondents believe that Russia is most responsible for undermining efforts to end the war. The US was named by 14%, Ukraine by 7%, and Europe by 5%.

Currently, nearly 200,000 live in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine can not abandon them to the Russian occupation army, as it will mean torture, death, and deportation.

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