WSJ: Europe is quietly building a NATO fallback in case the US steps back

European officials are quietly advancing contingency plans for a "European NATO" that could maintain deterrence against Russia even if the US withdraws troops, withholds support, or refuses to invoke Article 5, the Wall Street Journal reported. Germany's historic reversal on European defense sovereignty has unlocked broader support from the UK, France, Poland, the Nordic countries, and Canada.

Germany's reversal is the decisive factor

For decades, Germany blocked French-led calls for greater European defense autonomy, preferring to keep America as the ultimate guarantor of European security. That changed under Chancellor Friedrich Merz late last year, according to people familiar with his thinking cited by the WSJ.

Merz concluded that Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine and had confused the victim with the aggressor. He no longer saw clear values guiding US policy in NATO, but thought publicly questioning the alliance would be dangerous. Instead, Europe had to take on more while keeping the US formally inside. Germany’s shift brought in the UK, France, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada, framing the effort as a coalition of like-minded allies working inside NATO's existing structures.

"NATO must become more European in order to remain transatlantic," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.

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The plans are advancing informally through side talks around NATO — aimed not at replacing the alliance but at maintaining deterrence, preserving command continuity, and preserving nuclear credibility if Washington steps back.

Officials are now working through who would take over air and missile defense, reinforcement routes, logistics, and major exercises, while leaders such as Finland’s Alexander Stubb argue that reinstating compulsory military service will be essential as Europe takes on more responsibility for its own defense.

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The hardest gaps to fill

• The challenge is structural. NATO was designed around American leadership at its core — from intelligence and logistics to the supreme military command that Washington has made clear it will not vacate. 
• The hardest gap is strategic intelligence. France and Britain face growing pressure to expand their nuclear and surveillance roles because US satellite and missile-warning networks underpin NATO's credibility in ways no troop reallocation can replicate.
• The most sensitive element is nuclear deterrence. Trump's Greenland threat pushed Merz and Macron into talks about bringing France's nuclear umbrella over Germany and other European countries.

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What triggered the acceleration

The plans date to last year but moved faster after Trump's Greenland threat — and took on new urgency when the Iran war standoff deepened the rift between Washington and its European allies. Trump branded the Europeans "cowards," called NATO a "paper tiger," and said his threat to leave the alliance was "beyond reconsideration." Trump himself identified the turning point: "It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland."

"A burden shifting from the US toward Europe is ongoing, and it will continue as part of the US defense and national security strategy," Stubb said.