The 30-day US sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil expired on 11 April without renewal—a move Ukraine welcomed, but one that leaves the deeper structural problem Dixon warned about entirely intact.
“You should stop the oil, not cap it.”
“The price cap is a feeble sanction approach,” Mark Dixon told Euromaidan Press. “You should stop the oil, not cap it.” The waiver’s expiry is a step in that direction.
India between Hormuz and Moscow
The most immediate consequence falls on India. The country bought 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March under the waiver. Now, both the Russian supply and Iranian crude through the US-blockaded Strait of Hormuz are cut off. India imports more than 85% of its crude requirements and holds only around 30 days of strategic reserves.
“We support the United States’ decision not to extend the sanctions waiver for Russia.”
In his 10-point Economic World War plan, Dixon argues this is precisely the pressure secondary sanctions should create by design rather than by accident—fewer buyers forcing deeper discounts until Russia can no longer afford the war.
He singles out India in the interview as the country that made “token reductions under pressure only from the US” and then failed to follow through.
Ukraine welcomed Saturday’s development. “We support the United States’ decision not to extend the sanctions waiver for Russia,” Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukraine’s presidential commissioner for sanctions, told Politico’s NatSec Daily. “Reducing Russia’s revenues from oil and gas is a key instrument in advancing peace efforts.”
One step forward, one waiver granted
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Context matters here. The US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, a move that had dented Russia’s oil profits before the March waiver reversed much of that pressure. The waiver’s expiry restores the October position—it is not a new tightening.
On the same day the waiver expired, Washington granted an extension allowing four Bulgarian subsidiaries of Lukoil to continue operating.
Meanwhile, Urals crude surged to around $120 per barrel in early April, driven by the Iran war—the oil price inflation Dixon identifies as the force now making Russia richer despite years of sanctions pressure.
The picture is not entirely clean. On the same day the waiver expired, Washington granted an extension—valid until October—allowing four Bulgarian subsidiaries of Lukoil to continue operating, including the largest refinery in the Balkans, in Burgas.
The extension was secured after Bulgaria’s caretaker prime minister spoke directly with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. US military tanker aircraft are currently stationed at Sofia airport and rely on the Burgas refinery for aviation fuel.
Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Chuck Schumer, and Elizabeth Warren pressed the administration on Friday not to extend the waiver.
The waiver’s expiry is also far from a guarantee that Russian oil will stop flowing. Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Chuck Schumer, and Elizabeth Warren pressed the administration on Friday not to extend the waiver, saying it had allowed “Russia and its enablers” to earn more than $4 billion.
But a Senate Democratic aide told Politico that even before the license was issued, sanctioned Russian oil was finding its way to market—because the Trump administration had not imposed any Russia counter-evasion sanctions on oil sales or critical procurement for the Kremlin’s war machine in more than a year.
A bill spearheaded by Senator Lindsey Graham to impose secondary sanctions on Russia remains stalled in Congress.
