ISW: Ukraine’s drones pressure Russian command at every level — tactical, operational, strategic — likely disrupting spring offensive

Ukraine has been imposing increasing challenges on Russia at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels since the beginning of 2026 — and has likely disrupted preparations for Russia's anticipated spring-summer offensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 19 March. Ukrainian drone units have shifted the focus of their drone strikes away from Russian infantry toward artillery, logistics, and drone operators, reducing the number of Russian assaults — while a separate mid-range campaign is degrading Russian air defenses and enhancing the reach of Ukrainian strikes into the Russian rear.

Targeting shift cuts Russian assaults, enables local gains

A planning head of a Ukrainian drone battalion in the Lyman direction said on 17 March that Ukrainian forces have shifted the focus of their drone strikes to prioritize targeting artillery systems, drone operators, ground lines of communication (GLOCs), and staging areas rather than Russian infantry. The result: fewer Russian assaults and local Ukrainian advances. The same officer noted that frequent Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian communications antennas are demoralizing Russian forces, as well as inhibiting Russian frontline communications.

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Russia launched what may be the start of its spring offensive on 17 March — and lost 900 troops in 36 hours without breaking through anywhere along a 100-kilometer front

On 19 March, a Ukrainian drone unit reported destroying an entire battery of six Russian Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the Pokrovsk direction. Geolocated footage confirmed the destruction of at least two Grad systems in Zhuravka, roughly 16 kilometers from the frontline southeast of Pokrovsk.

Mid-range strikes quadrupled since November 2025

A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst reported on 18 March that monthly Ukrainian mid-range strikes — against targets 50 to 250 kilometers behind the frontline — quadrupled from an average of roughly 11 between March and October 2025 to an average of 45 since November 2025. Ukrainian forces conducted 365 such strikes between 19 March 2025 and 9 March 2026, with a third occurring in just the final three months of that period.

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Ukraine’s half-month air defense blitz: 27 Russian anti-air assets destroyed, including S-400s, Pantsirs, radars, and EW stations

Nearly half of those strikes targeted elements of Russia's air defense system — radar stations, missile launchers, and other elements of the Russian air defense system. Ukrainian forces have used domestically produced mid-range drones with ranges of up to 250 kilometers to partially replace the role formerly filled by US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), while notably increasing their use of FP-2 long-range strike drones over the past five months.

80 Russian air defense systems destroyed — each gap opens the next strike

BBC's Ukraine Service reported on 19 March, citing Ukrainian General Staff data, that Ukrainian forces struck 55 Russian air defense systems during winter 2025-2026. Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert "Magyar" Brovdi reported on 16 March that Ukrainian forces struck 23 more systems between 1 and 16 March — 80 during winter 2025-2026 and early spring 2026. Dutch open-source project Oryx visually confirmed on 1 January 2026 that Ukrainian forces destroyed 77 Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and 23 radar stations in 2025 alone.

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Hryshyne clearing operations continue as Russia tries to turn occupied Pokrovsk into a launchpad for the next advance

ISW assessed that each destroyed radar or SAM system opens a gap in Russia's air defense network, allowing subsequent Ukrainian strikes to target other valuable assets in the Russian rear — enhancing the reach of Ukraine's mid-range battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign.