ISW: First Pokrovsk, then Huliaipole—now Russia points its logistics-killing air campaign at the Fortress Belt
The 2025 version took months to set up advances, and this one is expected to move just as slowly.
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battlefield air interdiction
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ISW: Russians “weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war” by pervasively employing human safari tactics
The assessment follows two FPV strikes on civilian buses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 7 April — part of a pattern that the UN has previously confirmed as crimes against humanity.
ISW: Russia has likely begun its anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast
ISW assessed on 21 March, adding that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.
ISW: Ukraine’s drones pressure Russian command at every level — tactical, operational, strategic — likely disrupting spring offensive
Ukrainian forces conducted 365 mid-range strikes between March 2025 and March 2026, a third of them in the last three months alone, using domestically produced drones.
Russia is flying Shaheds into Ukraine’s FPV kill zone to crack bunkers smaller drones can’t destroy, ISW says
ISW's 4 March assessment identified Russian forces pushing Shahed drones into the 0–20 km frontline strip normally dominated by tactical FPVs, citing their heavier payloads as the reason.
SpaceX’s Starlink block is already disrupting Russia’s elite drone unit as predicted, ISW says
Ukraine and SpaceX's efforts to block unauthorized Starlink terminals in Ukraine is already disrupting Russia's elite Rubikon Center…
No clear goal in Pokrovsk — ISW says Russia trying to encircle and storm towns simultaneously
Ukrainian defenders now face glide bombs, southward incursions, and northwest flanking attempts — all at once.